Volcanic Dust & 2008 Hurricane Season

[Frank2]

Yesterday's major volcanic eruption was the second in South America in about 4 months - as seen in the photograph, the ash extended thousands of feet above the high cloud altitude, so, likely this dust will be suspended for some time...

Here's January's article:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... id=4152590

Here's yesterday's article:

http://www.miamiherald.com/915/story/519945.html

again, why long-term forecasts are really useless, since they do not account for the unexpected, which is more likely to happen...

[HURAKAN]

That will most likely stay in the southern hemisphere and have no effect on the hurricane season. Moreover, the eruptions have been pretty normal, nothing severe to have a discernible effect on the weather.

[Frank2]

Good morning - well, I'd have to disagree with that, because past major eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere did have an effect on global weather, the most infamous of those being Krakatoa, which affected weather worldwide for many months...

After the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Phillippines), radio signals were disrupted worldwide for months afterward - I recall that on many days, FM radio stations from over 1,000 miles away could be heard here in South Florida, even blocking out local signals (I belong to the local ham radio club)...

Granted, neither of the South American eruptions compare to the 1883 eruption, but, yesterday's eruption was very significant...

P.S. As Plucky Duck used to say in Tiny Toons - "Expect the unexpected!"

[Cryomaniac]

If the 1883 eruption happened today, the effect on communications would be near-catastrophic.

[Ptarmigan]

Actually the 1815 Tambora volcano eruption was much larger than Krakatoa. In fact the largest since AD 181. It was the year without summer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora

[Cryomaniac]

Actually the 1815 Tambora volcano eruption was much larger than Krakatoa. In fact the largest since AD 181. It was the year without summer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora

Very true. I can't say that I'd like either to happen today, thanks.

[hurricanetrack]

If it's not East Coast troughs, then it's volcanoes.

Let's revisit ALL of these "season ending" events around late August, shall we? Then we'll know a lot more about how the 2008 hurricane season will REALLY turn out.

[Emmett_Brown]

I wonder how much C02 that volcano pumped into the atmosphere...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good morning - well, I'd have to disagree with that, because past major eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere did have an effect on global weather, the most infamous of those being Krakatoa, which affected weather worldwide for many months...

After the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Phillippines), radio signals were disrupted worldwide for months afterward - I recall that on many days, FM radio stations from over 1,000 miles away could be heard here in South Florida, even blocking out local signals (I belong to the local ham radio club)...

Granted, neither of the South American eruptions compare to the 1883 eruption, but, yesterday's eruption was very significant...

P.S. As Plucky Duck used to say in Tiny Toons - "Expect the unexpected!"

It would be interesting if it did affect hurricanes. Since sea surface temperatures are cooler I don't think
this season will be very active. I guess 14-15 storms, which is active, but not extreme like 2005.
Now if someone gets hit, that is very tragic. But for right now the hurricane
season does not look that scary or threatening. Honestly though, I have no
clue about what will happen in the hurricane season.

It is noble though that Frank
you find factors that may lessen hurricanes. I'm guessing you must have suffered
through some big hurricanes and know how much loss and devastation they
bring firsthand. The worst I've ever experienced was Jeanne as a tropical storm
with gusts to hurricane force, and that is nothing compared to what most
other people have gone through.

[RL3AO]

I wonder how much C02 that volcano pumped into the atmosphere...

Probably the amount that NYC taxis emit in one hour.

[Emmett_Brown]

I found a link that has some good info about co2 from Volcanos... aparently they are responsible for less than 1% of co2 emissions.

http://www.hawaiinews.com/archives/volc ... 0440.shtml

[boca]

I wonder how much C02 that volcano pumped into the atmosphere...

Probably the amount that NYC taxis emit in one hour.

That's funny ,but I would change one hour to 15 minutes.

[Frank2]

Hi Tampa Bay (over/up there - actually, kind of slanting towards the northwest)...

Actually, I did lose my home to Hurricane Andrew, so, true that I did suffer a trauma (I certainly can relate to what the tornado victims are feeling - nothing worse to return to your house to find it gone or almost gone), so...

But, having finally put that behind me, the truth is that hurricanes have been a "routine" part of my life since that first hurricane experience in 1960 (yes, 1960), but, they are a very real concern when it comes to gas prices - the increase we are experiencing (the first large increase ever) did not begin after 9/11, but, began in 2005, after Hurricanes Wilma and Rita.

I can't imagine what will happen if we see the same now - we could easily see gasoline prices rise 50 - 100% of their current values, so, while some here grumble about those of us who seek reasons that the season might not be active, as one who does enjoy a good thunderstorm (minus the hail or tornadoes), we really need to pray that the season does not include major systems in the Gulf...

[boca]

We have to hope that a hurricane will stay away from the NW GOM Houston area where some of the oil refineries are located because $4 a gallon for gas will become $8 a gallon like Frank2 alluded too. A Katrina or a Rita type storm would be devestating.

[Frank2]

Actually, after posting, the thought came to mind that we were very blessed to have a quiet '06-'07 season, since gas prices could have already been at the level you mentioned, had we not...

Something for us to ponder...

[Cryomaniac]

Actually, after posting, the thought came to mind that we were very blessed to have a quiet '06-'07 season, since gas prices could have already been at the level you mentioned, had we not...

Something for us to ponder...

Definitely, the last thing that the US needs is a strong storm in the GOM. Any damage to oil refineries or even the threat of it, would be very bad.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That would really suck, since I just bought a boat yesterday! I would hate to not even get much enjoyment out of it because it gets destroyed in a storm or the gas gets too expensive to go play with it.

[Cyclone1]

If it's not East Coast troughs, then it's volcanoes.

Let's revisit ALL of these "season ending" events around late August, shall we? Then we'll know a lot more about how the 2008 hurricane season will REALLY turn out.

I applaud this post.

Seriously, I don't think volcanic dust is going to have a lasting effect on the season.

[Frank2]

At least myself and others are discussing things that are actually out (or up) there, unlike some who are trying to forecast a season many months in advance - I'm not saying the season will be active or unactive, but, just pointing out that these factors might (might) inhibit the season - let's hope so, especially when it comes to the Gulf of Mexico and gasoline prices...

As for the previous poster who said that high prices would not allow her to use her new boat - very high gasoline prices would prevent a lot more than that, my friend...

As for the dust, as Ptarmigan mentioned, the 1815 "Year without Summer" was due to a massive volcanic eruption, so, it has more of an effect than we realize...

As Cryomaniac said, it would be very bad if the oil-producing areas of the Gulf did see major systems this season - as he knows, in the UK, they are already paying about 9 USD for one gallon of gas - we could just as easily see that here...

Also, perhaps due to a number of grass fires around Florida, as a ham radio operator, our club has noticed a fair amount of ducting over the past few days, which is often due to large amounts of suspended aerosols that create an inversion - the same effect can be produced by volcanic ash, as was noted after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippines - some of the greatest ducting was found in the Northern Hemisphere, as the ash made it's way around the world...

Smoky here in South Florida this morning (can even smell it inside the building) - a few folks here are complaining about eye irritation...

As the Bible says, "He who has ears, let him listen."

[Jim Hughes]

Volcanic eruptions can have an effect upon the Hadley circulation, and the latter has a relationship with the ENSO. So nobody should be dismissing the effects of a volcanic eruption. Not even an SH one. But more specific data would be needed to evaluate it's possible influence.