Klotzbach / Gray April Forecast=15/8/4 / ACE=150 / NTC=160

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Experts Likely to Raise 2008 Storm Predictions Today

By Demian McLean

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane forecasters probably will boost the number of expected 2008 Atlantic storms when they update their prediction for the season today, meteorologists say.

William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, whose predictions are closely watched by insurers, energy markets and local governments, are scheduled to release their forecast by 11:30 a.m. New York time. Their preliminary report in December predicted 13 named storms this year, including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

``We think the forecast is going to be relatively aggressive,'' Michael Schlacter, chief

Hmmm,how agressive? We will know for sure at 11:30 AM EDT.

[KWT]

I think they will up everything by at least 1, so 14/8/4, s pretty active season and agressive compared to the long term average...I wonder how high they will go with the ACE?

We will find out soon enough I suppose!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a gut, but no matter what number it is, at the end of the season it will turn out to be a little too high.


13/11/6-8, and I'm sticking with it. Very active year, with lots of majors, most of which will recurve, except the October Miami storm.


I do 'out-major' them, however.

[KWT]

For that matter you also out hurricane them as well!
It'll be interesting how many of those 50-50 type storms we get where its borderline for upgrading the system?
They tend to boost the numbers by a couple.

[Steve H.]

Its out there now 15/8/4

[KWT]

Yep here:

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... pr2008.pdf

[RL3AO]

Very big increase in NSD (60 -> 80) and ACE (115 -> 150)

[jinftl]

ugh...don't like the sound of that prediction...are you anticipating a wilma-type storm....either in area of formation or track?


[quote="Ed Mahmoud"]Very active year, with lots of majors, most of which will recurve, except the October Miami storm.
quote]

[KWT]

Yeah the ACE did catch my eye...looks like with the numbers looks very close to 2000 which is one of the anolouge years as well...the years being used are 1950, 1989, 1999 and 2000, all had a strong la nina the winter beforehand. IMO the 1999 one is the best but those 4 years don't vary to a great degree, they are all above average, 1950 and 1999 recorded very high ACE values.

[jinftl]

ugh...don't like the sound of that prediction...october is climatologically a high risk month here in south florida

Very active year, with lots of majors, most of which will recurve, except the October Miami storm.
quote]

[Ed Mahmoud]

My unofficial mid-Octber storm, the K one (Kyle?), will hit Miami from the SSE, across Cuba.


All based on a single analog year, 1950, since combining analog years would be too much effort.


But it has been bone dry in Texas South of I-10, and fairly wet in Florida, suggesting the Big Ridge is/will be (feedback- dry weather breeds dry weather) centered over Texas, protecting the state completely, with all Gulf storms getting beyond 90ºW heading West into Mexico, and a mean trough position near the East Coast, which will re-curve most Atlantic storms before they get to the US, with a couple sneaking through and getting to Florida.


Unofficially, of course.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Risk and the Colorado Team coincide on the set of numbers.Regardless of the numbers,the important thing is to be prepared for anything that may threat your area.

[HURAKAN]

15/8/4 is more or less the average between 95 and 07, therefore, in this active period we're living the forecast is only more active when compared to the long-time average.

Nice season ahead!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Risk and the Colorado Team coincide on the set of numbers.Regardless of the numbers,the important thing is to be prepared for anything that may threat your area.

Agree. It only takes one!

[Blown Away]

My unofficial mid-Octber storm, the K one (Kyle?), will hit Miami from the SSE, across Cuba.

All based on a single analog year, 1950, since combining analog years would be too much effort.

But it has been bone dry in Texas South of I-10, and fairly wet in Florida, suggesting the Big Ridge is/will be (feedback- dry weather breeds dry weather) centered over Texas, protecting the state completely, with all Gulf storms getting beyond 90ºW heading West into Mexico, and a mean trough position near the East Coast, which will re-curve most Atlantic storms before they get to the US, with a couple sneaking through and getting to Florida.

Unofficially, of course.

100% agree w/ you. The EC trough will be in place and I see recurves and/or Carolinas this season.

[Stormcenter]

As some have posted already it only takes one. These predictions mean nothing to me and all they do is hype the media up and stress people out. I think it's safe to say that most people have seen what hurricanes can do the past 5 years and know what to do if one threatens their home. I really don't see the point to these predictions. I'm still waiting for someone to predict how many tornadoes we will have in one year and where they are more likely to touch down or how many earthquakes will shake the earth. In all honesty it's a crap shoot. The last two seasons have proven this more then ever and Mr. Gray credibility has taken a major shot in my opinion because of it. I wish I could update my budget projections every 3 months as he does his predictions. Oh well enough of my rant.

[RL3AO]

As some have posted already it only takes one. These predictions mean nothing to me and all they do is hype the media up and stress people out. I think it's safe to say that most people have seen what hurricanes can do the past 5 years and know what to do if one threatens their home. I really don't see the point to these predictions. I'm still waiting for someone to predict how many tornadoes we will have in one year and where they are more likely to touch down or how many earthquakes will shake the earth. In all honesty it's a crap shoot. The last two seasons have proven this more then ever and Mr. Gray credibility has taken a major shot in my opinion because of it. I wish I could update my budget projections every 3 months as he does his predictions. Oh well enough of my rant.

I agree that the media gives it too much attention, but they do have a point. They just don't pull numbers out of a hat. They give a very good report on why they think this way. Then if they bomb the forecast, they write a long report on what they screwed up. That means they learned something and can use it in the future to make better forecasts. People said the same thing when they started to issue tornado warnings and watches in the 50s. People said all it would do is stress people out and scare them. But over time the technology, skill, and knowledge became better and now tornado warnings and watches have saved thousands of lives. You don't just start doing something and do it perfectly. People must remember not to take these forecasts as fact, but also must remember trail and error.

[jinftl]

If that's the case, then it will come down to where storms form or are located in relation to troughs (and/or ridges)....a storm in the NW Caribbean Sea, for example, that responds to a trough would be pulled into the Gulf and threaten the Gulf Coast or be pulled towards Florida...climatologically the set-up for October storms in Florida


[quote="Blown_away
100% agree w/ you. The EC trough will be in place and I see recurves and/or Carolinas this season.[/quote]

[KWT]

Yeah these forecasts aren't going to be totally accurate but they do give a rough idea.

Also of course landfalling system make a difference, we could have a season with below average numberss like 7/4/2 but if the 2 majors make landfall in a heavily populated area the season will be more memorable then a 17/10/6 season which had all the systems go out to sea.

[vacanechaser]

My unofficial mid-Octber storm, the K one (Kyle?), will hit Miami from the SSE, across Cuba.

All based on a single analog year, 1950, since combining analog years would be too much effort.

But it has been bone dry in Texas South of I-10, and fairly wet in Florida, suggesting the Big Ridge is/will be (feedback- dry weather breeds dry weather) centered over Texas, protecting the state completely, with all Gulf storms getting beyond 90ºW heading West into Mexico, and a mean trough position near the East Coast, which will re-curve most Atlantic storms before they get to the US, with a couple sneaking through and getting to Florida.

Unofficially, of course.

100% agree w/ you. The EC trough will be in place and I see recurves and/or Carolinas this season.

well the mean trough position has been in the middle portion of the country so far... hence all the flooding....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team