2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

12z GFS shows our probable phantom we have been talking about starting to spin at 210 hours on vorticity maps

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS has Genesis @ 234

[SFLcane]

New solution on the 12z GFS this run might not even make into the western portion of the carib. Heading NE towards haiti. If it develops this far east it is going north.

[SFLcane]

The gyre system is still dominant on the Pacific side.

[SFLcane]

So were it develops if it all will be important.

[gatorcane]

Canadian with development:

[toad strangler]

Wide left on 6z GFS and wide right on 12z GFS. There will be more of that. Somewhere Scott Norwood smiles.

[WeatherEmperor]

Canadian with development:

https://i.postimg.cc/SsqfB8fQ/gem-mslpa ... atl-38.png

Veeeery interesting. Model consensus is very very slowly starting to build for this storm. Let's see if/when the Euro comes on board.

[gatorcane]

New solution on the 12z GFS this run might not even make into the western portion of the carib. Heading NE towards haiti. If it develops this far east it is going north.

https://i.imgur.com/lnsTyr4.jpg

The 12Z GFS is probably too far to the east. I would wager it develops closer to or in the WCAR. Ensembles may give a better clue. Indeed development chances in the Caribbean appear to be increasing.

[SFLcane]

CMC onboard now also heading w-wnw.

[kevin]

Now that the storm is getting in the 240 hours time range it looks like the some of the other models also show signs of the same storm. Of course no certainty yet, but it's obviously more than just GFS bias. Let's see how this develops over the coming days.

[kevin]

Now that the storm is getting in the 240 hours time range it looks like the some of the other models also show signs of the same storm. Of course no certainty yet, but it's obviously more than just GFS bias. Let's see how this develops over the coming days.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro seems about 24hrs slower than the GFS with the wave

[SFLcane]

Euro has this weak wave tracking across the tropical atl turning north before the islands. So not much to see

[Hurricaneman]

No development on the Euro, but there seems to be some decent vorticity in the SW Caribbean. We probably won’t know one way or the other if there will be any development in the western Caribbean until maybe the weekend.

The GFS and Canadian are showing something in the western Caribbean but it could be many days if not beyond a week until we can hone in on track and intensity

[SFLcane]

And there you have it...Just noise from the usually bias in the GFS. In other terms not a real signal

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1179120744707571718

[SFLcane]

In terms of the canadian the Euro/EPS say that solution is unlikely. EPS supports the Euro

GFS has a Gyre bias..

[wxman57]

Every model has a different solution by 240 hrs. None is believable at this point.

[SFLcane]

Every model has a different solution by 240 hrs. None is believable at this point.

When you consider the consistency between Euro and EPS though, plus how it usually does better with Atlantic cutoffs, I'm leaning for now that way.

[toad strangler]

The GFS is using a pc of energy from the far E Atlantic as the catalyst for a storm that it has been showing for at least four days now. It’s not producing a storm out of thin air. This is why I’m not convinced it’s a phantom. Where it goes is a different story but I don’t think it’s a ghost.