Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Typhoon
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:58 pm

#961 Postby Typhoon » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:07 am

mtm4319 wrote:045
SXXX50 KNHC 240602
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 03 KNHC
0544 3355N 08430W 00311 5011 360 000 096 054 000 00300 0000000000
0544. 3355N 08430W 00316 5014 320 006 096 054 013 00301 0000000000
0545 3355N 08431W 00382 5022 320 014 094 050 020 00360 0000000000
0545. 3355N 08433W 00610 5023 322 024 072 072 027 00589 0000000100
0546 3356N 08434W 00826 5024 326 029 056 056 029 00805 0000000100
0546. 3356N 08436W 00980 5024 329 028 056 056 029 00959 0000000100
0547 3355N 08438W 01368 5031 280 017 060 060 025 01339 0000000100
0547. 3354N 08438W 01777 5024 229 018 044 044 019 01756 0000000100
0548 3352N 08438W 02008 5022 243 021 024 016 021 01989 0000000000
0548. 3351N 08438W 02311 5023 251 028 010 004 035 02294 0000000000
0549 3349N 08438W 02586 5018 249 039 022 037 040 02574 0000000000
0549. 3347N 08438W 02851 5012 248 040 010 047 041 02847 0000000000
0550 3345N 08437W 03111 5004 248 043 006 033 045 03114 0000000000
0550. 3344N 08437W 03365 0006 241 045 012 073 046 03379 0000000000
0551 3342N 08437W 03600 0016 239 047 005 079 048 03624 0000000000
0551. 3340N 08437W 03817 0025 238 052 017 107 053 03850 0000000000
0552 3338N 08436W 04002 0035 240 051 027 125 052 04045 0000000000
0552. 3337N 08436W 04168 0043 245 056 023 197 059 04219 0000000000
0553 3335N 08435W 04332 0058 248 060 027 243 060 04396 0000000000
0553. 3333N 08434W 04514 0068 244 062 041 217 062 04588 0000000000

Are flight-level winds really 62 knots over the state of Georgia?


They could easily be. The Hurricane Hunters fly at a much higher altitude until they get to the hurricane. They aren't flying at 5,000 or 10,000 feet.

EDIT: I now realize that the recon data says that they are at an altitude of 4514 feet, since they just took off. That means that you're right, the winds are pretty strange.
0 likes   
Top
jpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 692
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#962 Postby jpigott » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:50 am

was that 130kt reading correct? We really need to have this clarified as this would make Wilma close to a Cat 4 again
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#963 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:52 am

There was 4 obs of 127 to 130 knot winds...So yes its a pretty soild case unless the plane pulled up.
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#964 Postby superfly » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:53 am

NHC will probably go conservative with this since the pressure is still high. Probably 125MPH.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
calculatedrisk
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:39 pm

#965 Postby calculatedrisk » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:53 am

jpigott wrote:was that 130kt reading correct? We really need to have this clarified as this would make Wilma close to a Cat 4 again


0608. 2437N 08226W 03041 5231 222 124 104 104 127 02853 0000000100
0609 2436N 08224W 03047 5221 221 129 086 086 130 02870 0000000100
0609. 2435N 08222W 03048 5207 218 127 082 082 129 02885 0000000100
0610 2435N 08221W 03046 5195 219 126 080 080 129 02895 0000000100
0610. 2434N 08219W 03049 5182 219 119 098 098 121 02910 0000000000
0611 2433N 08218W 03045 5173 220 120 096 096 120 02915 0000000000

Looks solid
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#966 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:54 am

130kts FL supports 115kt surface winds, or 130mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#967 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:55 am

I heard that the plane has turned around to resample that portion to make sure the original reading was correct.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#968 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:55 am

there is NO reason to go conservative right now....and I don't think they will
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#969 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:55 am

130 knots flight level is 134.5 mph...
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#970 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:56 am

....what's 135 knots? :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
calculatedrisk
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 3:39 pm

#971 Postby calculatedrisk » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:57 am

0644. 2440N 08205W 03045 5170 216 123 078 078 128 02918 0000000100
0645 2441N 08207W 03046 5180 216 128 078 078 130 02909 0000000100
0645. 2442N 08208W 03051 5190 219 131 082 082 134 02904 0000000100
0646 2443N 08209W 03043 5204 222 132 090 090 135 02883 0000000100
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#972 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:57 am

135 knots at .9=139.7 mph...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#973 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:130 knots flight level is 134.5 mph...


130 * 0.9 = 117kt surface. The wind speed gets rounded in kts down to 115kt.

115kt = 130mph

edit: doesn't even matter now as they've reported 135kt FL.
Last edited by bahamaswx on Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#974 Postby superfly » Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:58 am

OK, most definitely a cat 4 now.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 188 guests