2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

skyline385 · #961 Postby **skyline385** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 12:34 pm

For the past few runs on the GFS, the 20-30 kts trades combined with the dry air near Lesser Antilles seem to be the bane of the wave. You can almost see the wave getting shoved into the Caribbean.

Ubuntwo · #962 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:18 am

skyline385 · #963 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:36 am

The full range EPS is pretty nuts but nothing on the GEFS to support it, could be the Euro’s MDR bias at play here?

aspen · #964 Postby **aspen** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:09 am

skyline385 wrote:The full range EPS is pretty nuts but nothing on the GEFS to support it, could be the Euro’s MDR bias at play here?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/44e808d37533d58f17af06a488af6e66.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/384c45f482d4ed2b866d9fb04f8566ca.jpg

Could also be the GFS’ EPac bias at play here too, refusing to propagate favorable conditions into the Atlantic and thinking the EPac will be in this active state for longer than it actually will. The EPS/Euro was right about Bonnie forming…just not right about the strength of the ridge, in what might be the first ever ridge underestimate by the model. Still, there’s some growing (though not a ton of) support on both ensembles for the potential for MDR development by the first week of August.

skyline385 · #965 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:29 am

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:The full range EPS is pretty nuts but nothing on the GEFS to support it, could be the Euro’s MDR bias at play here?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/44e808d37533d58f17af06a488af6e66.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/384c45f482d4ed2b866d9fb04f8566ca.jpg

Could also be the GFS’ EPac bias at play here too, refusing to propagate favorable conditions into the Atlantic and thinking the EPac will be in this active state for longer than it actually will. The EPS/Euro was right about Bonnie forming…just not right about the strength of the ridge, in what might be the first ever ridge underestimate by the model. Still, there’s some growing (though not a ton of) support on both ensembles for the potential for MDR development by the first week of August.

Whats interesting is that you can see the wave in the latest GFS take the same path as the EPS members but fails to develop it because of unfavorable conditions (dry air, speed, interaction w Cuba & shear in Western Atlantic). However, if it does make it to the Gulf in one piece, I would say there is a good chance we get something as it landfalls.

#966 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:36 am

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:The full range EPS is pretty nuts but nothing on the GEFS to support it, could be the Euro’s MDR bias at play here?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/44e808d37533d58f17af06a488af6e66.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/384c45f482d4ed2b866d9fb04f8566ca.jpg

Could also be the GFS’ EPac bias at play here too, refusing to propagate favorable conditions into the Atlantic and thinking the EPac will be in this active state for longer than it actually will. The EPS/Euro was right about Bonnie forming…just not right about the strength of the ridge, in what might be the first ever ridge underestimate by the model. Still, there’s some growing (though not a ton of) support on both ensembles for the potential for MDR development by the first week of August.

The past few GFS runs in EPAC have backed off on significant development and keeps delaying development in the long range. I suspect over the next few days the GEFS will start ramping up activity in the Atlantic. Switch is about to flip.

skyline385 · #967 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:42 am

skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:The full range EPS is pretty nuts but nothing on the GEFS to support it, could be the Euro’s MDR bias at play here?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/44e808d37533d58f17af06a488af6e66.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/384c45f482d4ed2b866d9fb04f8566ca.jpg

Could also be the GFS’ EPac bias at play here too, refusing to propagate favorable conditions into the Atlantic and thinking the EPac will be in this active state for longer than it actually will. The EPS/Euro was right about Bonnie forming…just not right about the strength of the ridge, in what might be the first ever ridge underestimate by the model. Still, there’s some growing (though not a ton of) support on both ensembles for the potential for MDR development by the first week of August.

Whats interesting is that you can see the wave in the latest GFS take the same path as the EPS members but fails to develop it because of unfavorable conditions (dry air, speed, interaction w Cuba & shear in Western Atlantic). However, if it does make it to the Gulf in one piece, I would say there is a good chance we get something as it landfalls.

Looks like 06Z ensembles also agree with the EPS.

skyline385 · #968 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:07 pm

Pretty decent wave on the EURO, still think it has a good chance if it manages to dodge land or make it intact into the gulf.

skyline385 · #969 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:03 pm

Yea EPS pretty bullish as well

ScottNAtlanta · #970 Postby **ScottNAtlanta** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:02 am

The wave that just passed PR seems to really be blowing up north of Hispaniola. I don't see it on the models, but it is small and sometimes they sneak in under the radar.

skyline385 · #971 Postby **skyline385** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:16 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:The wave that just passed PR seems to really be blowing up north of Hispaniola. I don't see it on the models, but it is small and sometimes they sneak in under the radar.

Saw an advisory from TAFB yesterday too about thunderstorms in PR associated with the wave

#972 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:27 am

Should be a circled area next week by the NHC. Models are in excellent agreement that a strong sprawling wave will be exiting Africa next week. Despite unfavorable conditions that far north in the MDR, it keeps its signature very well. Models aren't showing development yet but its possible it could find favorable conditions down the line. Especially if it gets into the GOM.

Nimbus · #973 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:42 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:The wave that just passed PR seems to really be blowing up north of Hispaniola. I don't see it on the models, but it is small and sometimes they sneak in under the radar.

DMD mentioned this in the other thread.

When it comes to these sprawling high-latitude dry waves you have to watch what happens to them once they reach further west

Could just be some low level energy getting a shear lift on the periphery of an upper level high, but looking at the water vapor loop it appears in a more favorable area for actual development? Can't start a thread without model support.

#974 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Should be a circled area next week by the NHC. Models are in excellent agreement that a strong sprawling wave will be exiting Africa next week. Despite unfavorable conditions that far north in the MDR, it keeps its signature very well. Models aren't showing development yet but its possible it could find favorable conditions down the line. Especially if it gets into the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/iNqF3sd.gif

I'm hoping this isn't going to be another year where TC development starts before showing any model support. We have seen some intense storms form with basically no model support up until their formation.

Category5Kaiju · #975 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:06 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Should be a circled area next week by the NHC. Models are in excellent agreement that a strong sprawling wave will be exiting Africa next week. Despite unfavorable conditions that far north in the MDR, it keeps its signature very well. Models aren't showing development yet but its possible it could find favorable conditions down the line. Especially if it gets into the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/iNqF3sd.gif

I'm hoping this isn't going to be another year where TC development starts before showing any model support. We have seen some intense storms form with basically no model support up until their formation.

What has also happened in recent years is, some models do indeed pick up on something forming, but grossly underestimate how favorable conditions unexpectedly get down the line. I think Michael, Dorian, and Laura are probably the most notorious recent year examples of this. Although I will say, Ida and Sam were nailed by models before they formed as having the potential to really intensify (which verified)

#976 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:53 pm

Well this is interesting!

skyline385 · #977 Postby **skyline385** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:11 pm

Anything that gets into the Gulf is going to blow up

#978 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:30 pm

SFLcane wrote:Well this is interesting!

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnYVjdNZ/eps22.gif

Euro shows this initially developing a low, but opens back up into a wave. However, it shows better conditions north of Puerto Rico later with an anticyclone on top of the wave. This one may need to be watched.

#979 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:49 pm

GFS 18Z

#980 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:35 pm

tolakram wrote:GFS 18Z
https://i.imgur.com/UZHYKsl.gif

It opens the system back into a wave, but when it gets into the Gulf, it redevelops into a TC. With conditions appearing to become more favorable further west (less dry air), I would definitely watch this wave. Also, the GFS shows a low shear environment for the wave (although the Euro looks better).