Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[StPeteMike]

GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.

Honestly though, think this set-up of between Pensacola and Port Charlotte is pretty accurate. No -removed- here, I just paid off my car! Last thing I need is a hurricane forcing back into car payments.

[caneman]

To each his own. I appreciate it.

I actually appreciate it as well.

The information is more easily found and understood by visiting an actual model page than trying to deduce what is being typed bit by bit, but okay….

Again, to each his own.

[robbielyn]

did anyone see the 977mb storm on the epac side of mexico at sept 27th frame 234?

[Ian2401]

genesis probs spiking on TCLOGG. up to 69%. NHC should go up to 70% at 8p

[gatorcane]

The GEFS ensembles yet again look no bueno for the EGOM, Big Bend, and Tampa Bay area:

[psyclone]

I think much of Florida is going to get hosed at a minimum. I also suspect my (semi) tongue in cheek posts aboot Tampa Bay exemptions may come back to haunt me. Still lookin' for that elusive cold front

[StPeteMike]

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/CON168AL_latest.png
genesis probs spiking on TCLOGG. up to 69%. NHC should go up to 70% at 8p

10%/70% sounds about right, wouldn’t be surprised to see 80-% though.

[SFLcane]

Being this is still 5-7 days from being a threat lots will change.

[DunedinDave]

I Still think Tampa Bay will escape a direct hit. Only way it won’t is if the center establishes itself further east than what they’re saying. But this has Debby and Idalia written all over it where the west coast gets hammered with rain and the center passes somewhere between Appalachicola to Cedar Key.

[BobHarlem]

Interesting setup on landfall on the 18z. Must be shear vector enhanced. It stays a hurricane all the way inland to Charlotte, NC on that run.

[Steve]

Yeah chill on that criticism imho. If it were a classified entity there would be a models thread.

953 is fairly close to a Cat 3 which is notoriously tough past Apalacholicola on the Panhandle. it has happened on some rare occasions so it’s not out of the question entirely. But my bet would be slightly weaker if it took the GFS track. Definitely a dangerous outcome for Jacksonville, Thomasville, Valdosta and Savannah but if it comes in east of Carabelle and Sopchoppy perhaps Tally could be mostly spared H force winds with towns east like Madison, Monticello and Perry getting smacked. St. Marks is one of the last coastal towns that way and lots of estuaries are farther east. You’d expect surge issues in St. George, Alligator Point, Panacea and Bald Point. I haven’t been down that way in a few years, but people do live in those communities. Hope it is weaker if GFS is onto anything.

[Steve]

Also end of that GFS run still wants a part 2 - this time at the Peninsula

[Ivanhater]

GFS is still on the east side of guidance. We'll see what overnight models say. Biloxi to Apalachicola is the current model range

[Ivanhater]

GFS is still on the east side of guidance. We'll see what overnight models say. Biloxi to Apalachicola is the current model range

[DunedinDave]

Also end of that GFS run still wants a part 2 - this time at the Peninsula

They don’t call it happy hour for nothing.

[Blown Away]

ATM it appears the L would set up a little farther E.

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0j2NTzD6/goes16-vis-swir-watl.gif [/url]

ATM it appears the L would set up a little farther E.

It would be crazy if this got itself together days before it’s expected to do so. I would wonder if it would just meander around the northwest Caribbean or move north sooner than expected as well.

[boca]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Ghf5T6MV/goes16-ir-watl.gif [/url]

ATM it appears the L would set up a little farther E.

If that’s the case it would be a game changer for peninsula Florida.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0j2NTzD6/goes16-vis-swir-watl.gif [/url]

ATM it appears the L would set up a little farther E.

It would be crazy if this got itself together days before it’s expected to do so. I would wonder if it would just meander around the northwest Caribbean or move north sooner than expected as well.

Totally agree and definitely low %, but there have been a few ensemble members from both Euro/GFS that show MH development E and then moving over or just E of FL Peninsula.

[Ian2401]

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/CON168AL_latest.png
genesis probs spiking on TCLOGG. up to 69%. NHC should go up to 70% at 8p

called it