Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[Loveweather12]

Aren’t conditions good down there?

The 00z UKMET 6 days out still has a weak low over the western tip of Cuba. It is slightly stronger vorticity than the previous 12z. I still think we are going to get something out of this.

https://i.ibb.co/LtSQG0J/us-model-en-087-0-zz-modgbr-2020101900-144-1446-149.png

[shaneomac]

Its not looking good my friends , i really thought a storm would spawn given conditions but just dont look like it will, a let down but still few days out so anything can happen but my excitement level is def a 1 now lol

[Frank2]

The local (Miami) NWS discussion mentions strong highs to our north so anything that could form in the NW Caribbean is likely to move west or remain stationary - with each week the environment becomes more hostile. Snow is a little early this year in Canada and the border states, so that really says a lot for the remaining hurricane season...

[otowntiger]

Yep- looking less and threatening for Florida for now, and perhaps more than just FL. Looks like it could have been 40 pages of phantom chasing. It’s funny when the models drop development people start saying "the models are crap", or "I don’t buy that run or this model", etc. when the whole reason these 40 pages of anticipation exist is totally because of what a couple models have been leading so many here to believe. If the models are all crap then we would only be tracking and discussing actual, existing systems.

[Loveweather12]

Yep- looking less and threatening for Florida for now, and perhaps more than just FL. Looks like it could have been 40 pages of phantom chasing. It’s funny when the models drop development people start saying "the models are crap", or "I don’t buy that run or this model", etc. when the whole reason these 40 pages of anticipation exist is totally because of what a couple models have been leading so many here to believe. If the models are all crap then we would only be tracking and discussing actual, existing systems.

The models are crap and hurricane season ends November 30th, not October 25

[aspen]

You know what would be really ironic? If, after this, a poorly modeled surprise system bombs out into a major in the Caribbean.

[tailgater]

I haven’t been following this much, frankly a little burnt out. The long look at the shortwave IR and visible sat loops show something trying to form near the western tip of CUBA it’s pretty dry down there though.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10% in 5 days.

A trough of low pressure has formed over the western Caribbean
Sea, which extends northward across western Cuba. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is located along the northern
portion of the trough axis where upper-level winds are not
conducive for significant development. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula over the next day
or two. Regardless of development, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of Cuba through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[northjaxpro]

I haven’t been following this much, frankly a little burnt out. The long look at the shortwave IR and visible sat loops show something trying to form near the western tip of CUBA it’s pretty dry down there though.

Both the 12Z CMC and 12Z GFS develops and initializes a 1008 mb Low Pressure area in 6 hours just south of Cuba near the Isle of Youth.

[AutoPenalti]

Just not enough vorticity for something to form right now.

[psyclone]

Yep- looking less and threatening for Florida for now, and perhaps more than just FL. Looks like it could have been 40 pages of phantom chasing. It’s funny when the models drop development people start saying "the models are crap", or "I don’t buy that run or this model", etc. when the whole reason these 40 pages of anticipation exist is totally because of what a couple models have been leading so many here to believe. If the models are all crap then we would only be tracking and discussing actual, existing systems.

The models are crap and hurricane season ends November 30th, not October 25

It's really important to discuss the fact that not all months are created equal in the Atlantic hurricane season. November is frequently a throw away month...especially for the US coast. If climate change or some other factor were moving the sands we would already be observing increased activity threatening the US at the tail end of the season. We aren't. There's more to TC activity than warmth. the western caribbean is warm enough to support storms year around but they don't have them. I would suggest that 1985's Kate is to November what Audrey is to June...an extremely rare anomaly with a repeat frequency of perhaps 1 or 2 percent per annum. TC activity historically goes into a rapid terminal decline in the latter third of October. It's a signal so overwhelming that it should be believed absent compelling evidence to the contrary..

[ElectricStorm]

Yep- looking less and threatening for Florida for now, and perhaps more than just FL. Looks like it could have been 40 pages of phantom chasing. It’s funny when the models drop development people start saying "the models are crap", or "I don’t buy that run or this model", etc. when the whole reason these 40 pages of anticipation exist is totally because of what a couple models have been leading so many here to believe. If the models are all crap then we would only be tracking and discussing actual, existing systems.

The models are crap and hurricane season ends November 30th, not October 25

It's really important to discuss the fact that not all months are created equal in the Atlantic hurricane season. November is frequently a throw away month...especially for the US coast. If climate change or some other factor were moving the sands we would already be observing increased activity threatening the US at the tail end of the season. We aren't. There's more to TC activity than warmth. the western caribbean is warm enough to support storms year around but they don't have them. I would suggest that 1985's Kate is to November what Audrey is to June...an extremely rare anomaly with a repeat frequency of perhaps 1 or 2 percent per annum. TC activity historically goes into a rapid terminal decline in the latter third of October. It's a signal so overwhelming that it should be believed absent compelling evidence to the contrary..

It's 2020 though so... November 1932 confirmed... Cat 5 in Caribbean followed by Cat 2 forming in MDR lol

[Loveweather12]

Yep- looking less and threatening for Florida for now, and perhaps more than just FL. Looks like it could have been 40 pages of phantom chasing. It’s funny when the models drop development people start saying "the models are crap", or "I don’t buy that run or this model", etc. when the whole reason these 40 pages of anticipation exist is totally because of what a couple models have been leading so many here to believe. If the models are all crap then we would only be tracking and discussing actual, existing systems.

The models are crap and hurricane season ends November 30th, not October 25

It's really important to discuss the fact that not all months are created equal in the Atlantic hurricane season. November is frequently a throw away month...especially for the US coast. If climate change or some other factor were moving the sands we would already be observing increased activity threatening the US at the tail end of the season. We aren't. There's more to TC activity than warmth. the western caribbean is warm enough to support storms year around but they don't have them. I would suggest that 1985's Kate is to November what Audrey is to June...an extremely rare anomaly with a repeat frequency of perhaps 1 or 2 percent per annum. TC activity historically goes into a rapid terminal decline in the latter third of October. It's a signal so overwhelming that it should be believed absent compelling evidence to the contrary..

Well that’s what the experts say hurricane season ends and I’m going to listen to the experts. Have a good day

[Hurricane Alexis]

Another November landfall would be the 1935 yankee hurricane that made landfall as a cat 2 near Miami Beach on the 4th. It also approached from the northeast, very unusual track. I think there's a way higher chance of something coming out of the Caribbean out of this trough then anything similar to the yankee hurricane.

[tailgater]

Just not enough vorticity for something to form right now.

I not saying a depression or TS will form but I see evidence of a low getting it’s act together in the NW Caribbean near the Western tip of Cuba. northerly wind in Cancun and Cozumel Shear and dry air will probably curtail it.

[northjaxpro]

Just not enough vorticity for something to form right now.

I not saying a depression or TS will form but I see evidence of a low getting it’s act together in the NW Caribbean near the Western tip of Cuba. northerly wind in Cancun and Cozumel Shear and dry air will probably curtail it.

I agree. Also, there is very sufficient 850 mb vorticity being analyzed just south of Cuba on the latest 850 mb analysis. I firmly believe once conve tion gires up soon in that area, we may see Low Pressure forming in that vicinity.

[Frank2]

Decades ago I spent a lot of time around the people who wrote the early models and at that time models were only used for systems on the map. Someone would plot the computes, and the forecaster would look at it - but it was just another tool, not the decision-maker it seems to have become, though the NHC still keeps to the tradition that the forecaster must consider everything before sending a forecast package.

Models are only as good as the data they collect and the absence of pilot reports has made a difference since March, though the mirage issue has been an issue here and elsewhere year after year. Sometimes the models prove right - but many times either they are completely wrong, or only a percentage correct, because nature is just too complicated to pin down for more than one second...

[ronjon]

Aren’t conditions good down there?

The 00z UKMET 6 days out still has a weak low over the western tip of Cuba. It is slightly stronger vorticity than the previous 12z. I still think we are going to get something out of this.

https://i.ibb.co/LtSQG0J/us-model-en-087-0-zz-modgbr-2020101900-144-1446-149.png

Yeah UKMET is pretty good at sniffing out genesis unlike some models that start with a G!

[SFLcane]

Certainly more convection down there then it has been in recent days.

[ElectricStorm]

I know NHC went down to 10/10 on their last TWO, but I'm not completely writing this one off yet. Convection looks better down there and if I forms further south than the NHC'S x, it could have more favorable conditions