2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[chaser1]

Here is the link the 768 hour CFS from Pivotal Weather. Not much going on yet except a storm at the very end (Aug 22) east of the Lesser Antilles moving NW. That area where the CFS shows development looks favorable with those above normal SSTs:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

This might just turn into a popcorn type of storm season. Small, but quicker genesis and for that reason perhaps all the more difficult for globals to get a good handle on mid-term development. Still, GFS never met a MDR cluster of thunderstorms that it didn't like Personally, the 0Z run tonight showing potential Emily by months end seems to be a good fit for climo and in line with what we've seen thus far. The MDR is really beginning to moisten up, SST's are Krispy Kreme Hot 'n Ready Warm, and the steering pattern appears to be setting up like I-20 crossing the US.

[cycloneye]

Looks like El NIño will eventually win the battle of titans against the warms Atlantic sstas /+AMO if this is right.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682800197116604419




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682801290491883520

@WxTca
More generally, the model has trended towards the East Pacific being more +ENSO-like with stronger low-level westerlies and upper-level easterlies:

The correction in 200mb winds is particularly stark.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like El NIño will eventually win the battle of titans against the warms Atlantic sstas /+AMO if this is right.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682800197116604419

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682801290491883520

@WxTca
More generally, the model has trended towards the East Pacific being more +ENSO-like with stronger low-level westerlies and upper-level easterlies:

The correction in 200mb winds is particularly stark.

This is going to be an interesting hurricane season, that's for sure

[Ntxw]

Looks like El NIño will eventually win the battle of titans against the warms Atlantic sstas /+AMO if this is right.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682800197116604419

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682801290491883520

@WxTca
More generally, the model has trended towards the East Pacific being more +ENSO-like with stronger low-level westerlies and upper-level easterlies:

The correction in 200mb winds is particularly stark.

While no doubt Nino effects will become greater with time as the atmosphere slowly couples (eventually it will, as does all major ENSO events) the rest of the year, the models have been too bullish with weakening of trades in the eq-pacific. DKW has been bypassing the 4 and 3.4 regions, showing up in 3 and 1+2, eastern lean.

East and north is where the action should be agree with most in the Atlantic. The early part of this season has given the hints of such.

[REDHurricane]

Could Don's strengthening and 95L's apparent fizzling out be a sign of a pattern favoring a more active north/east subtropical Atlantic and a less active deep tropics/Caribbean/Gulf through the rest of the season, as multiple users here have suggested is a possibility? I know it's still only July and we already saw the two MDR storms form in June, so maybe there's nothing else to it, but it will be interesting to see if 2023 might end up as a close opposite to 2022 in terms of cyclone locations.

[Teban54]

Could Don's strengthening and 95L's apparent fizzling out be a sign of a pattern favoring a more active north/east subtropical Atlantic and a less active deep tropics/Caribbean/Gulf through the rest of the season, as multiple users here have suggested is a possibility? I know it's still only July and we already saw the two MDR storms form in June, so maybe there's nothing else to it, but it will be interesting to see if 2023 might end up as a close opposite to 2022 in terms of cyclone locations.

People said the same thing in 2017 when Gert became a Cat 2 in the subtropics while multiple weak storms fizzled out in the tropical Atlantic (Bret, TD4, Don, Harvey, PTC 10). We all know what happened after that.

[Category5Kaiju]

Could Don's strengthening and 95L's apparent fizzling out be a sign of a pattern favoring a more active north/east subtropical Atlantic and a less active deep tropics/Caribbean/Gulf through the rest of the season, as multiple users here have suggested is a possibility? I know it's still only July and we already saw the two MDR storms form in June, so maybe there's nothing else to it, but it will be interesting to see if 2023 might end up as a close opposite to 2022 in terms of cyclone locations.

People said the same thing in 2017 when Gert became a Cat 2 in the subtropics while multiple weak storms fizzled out in the tropical Atlantic (Bret, TD4, Don, Harvey, PTC 10). We all know what happened after that.

2004 is a great example too. First we had a Category 3 Hurricane Alex in the subtropics in very early August. Then we had...well, the others.

[REDHurricane]

Could Don's strengthening and 95L's apparent fizzling out be a sign of a pattern favoring a more active north/east subtropical Atlantic and a less active deep tropics/Caribbean/Gulf through the rest of the season, as multiple users here have suggested is a possibility? I know it's still only July and we already saw the two MDR storms form in June, so maybe there's nothing else to it, but it will be interesting to see if 2023 might end up as a close opposite to 2022 in terms of cyclone locations.

People said the same thing in 2017 when Gert became a Cat 2 in the subtropics while multiple weak storms fizzled out in the tropical Atlantic (Bret, TD4, Don, Harvey, PTC 10). We all know what happened after that.

2004 is a great example too. First we had a Category 3 Hurricane Alex in the subtropics in very early August. Then we had...well, the others.

I think that 2003 (16 NS/7 H/3 MH/176 ACE) might actually be the best analog for 2023 when it's all said and done -- a solidly above average season with most of the significant storms (two high cat 4/low cat 5 hurricanes) forming in/near the MDR and curving north before the Caribbean islands, decreased activity in the Gulf/Caribbean, and a busy August/September peak after a relatively slow July. ENSO numbers don't exactly match up but the general pattern of +AMO, -PDO, and rapidly warming equatorial east Pacific does for the most part.

June 2003 SST anomalies


October 2003 SST anomalies




If that doesn't convince you, just compare Danny from 2003 (which lasted from July 16-21) to our guy Don right now...

Hurricane Danny 2003



Hurricane Don 2023

[Category5Kaiju]

People said the same thing in 2017 when Gert became a Cat 2 in the subtropics while multiple weak storms fizzled out in the tropical Atlantic (Bret, TD4, Don, Harvey, PTC 10). We all know what happened after that.

2004 is a great example too. First we had a Category 3 Hurricane Alex in the subtropics in very early August. Then we had...well, the others.

I think that 2003 (16 NS/7 H/3 MH/176 ACE) might actually be the best analog for 2023 when it's all said and done -- a solidly above average season with most of the significant storms (two high cat 4/low cat 5 hurricanes) forming in/near the MDR and curving north before the Caribbean islands, decreased activity in the Gulf/Caribbean, and a busy August/September peak after a relatively slow July. ENSO numbers don't exactly match up but the general pattern of +AMO, -PDO, and rapidly warming equatorial east Pacific does for the most part.

June 2003 SST anomalies
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2003/anomnight.6.3.2003.gif

October 2003 SST anomalies
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2003/anomnight.10.4.2003.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2003.png

If that doesn't convince you, just compare Danny from 2003 (which lasted from July 16-21) to our guy Don right now...

Hurricane Danny 2003
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/Danny_2003_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c0/Danny_2003-07-19.png

Hurricane Don 2023
https://i.ibb.co/j8gprSc/Screen-Shot-2023-07-22-at-5-42-00-PM.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Don_2023-07-22_2049Z.jpg

2003 interestingly shares another key thing with 2023: they are both +ENSO years (2003 was warm neutral though, so definitely nowhere near as warm as 2023 will be)

[St0rmTh0r]

a lot of people not seeing big picture here. the fact that there has been so many trackable waves this early shows how favorable MDR is. August is going to be the big month from all the indicators.

[CyclonicFury]

An interesting thing about this season: although we've had 5 nameable storms (4 of which failed to reach hurricane intensity), 4 of the 5 reached at least 50 knots, and 3 of the 5 reached at least 60 knots. 3 of the 5 also lasted at least 4 days and were not the "shorties" we often see in the early season. ACE is also currently in the top 10 through this date among Atlantic seasons since 1951 (approximately 15 so far). 2022 had a much quieter early season (only ~3 ACE before September, which was near record-low). I highly doubt August will be dead again.

I still feel like 2023 will be a very active season by El Niño standards, but still not nearly as active as the extremely bullish UKMET and UA forecasts. I don't think 95L potentially failing to develop is a sign the MDR will struggle this year, especially since we already had 2 June MDR storms and still have a shot at one late this month.

[ElectricStorm]

An interesting thing about this season: although we've had 5 nameable storms (4 of which failed to reach hurricane intensity), 4 of the 5 reached at least 50 knots, and 3 of the 5 reached at least 60 knots. 3 of the 5 also lasted at least 4 days and were not the "shorties" we often see in the early season. ACE is also currently in the top 10 through this date among Atlantic seasons since 1951 (approximately 15 so far). 2022 had a much quieter early season (only ~3 ACE before September, which was near record-low). I highly doubt August will be dead again.

I still feel like 2023 will be a very active season by El Niño standards, but still not nearly as active as the extremely bullish UKMET and UA forecasts. I don't think 95L potentially failing to develop is a sign the MDR will struggle this year, especially since we already had 2 June MDR storms and still have a shot at one late this month.

Fully agree with this and is pretty much my exact thoughts on this season.

Getting to the point where I'm thinking my preseason numbers in the poll (15/5/3) are going to bust low, particularly the NS and H count.

Probably going to be a pretty active MDR year, hopefully there's enough shear in the Caribbean and Gulf to at least prevent anything strong moving through there but we'll see.

[Category5Kaiju]

We still have a long way to go before this season is over. But one thing is pretty certain already: the deep tropics seem to be pretty unstable with the alarmingly warmer than average sea surface temperatures. I don't think you can say that Bret, Cindy, 95L, and *what looks to be potentially another system forming in the MDR later this month* are flukes per se.

[WeatherBoy2000]

As we come up on the end of July, the mdr/eastern Atlantic ssts still remain well above average. Even if we don't get that many TCs this year, the TCs that do develop will have the benefit of much warmer ssts than compared to nearly any other year. I would be very surprised if we don't get at least one strong and long lived CV storm. I think multiple is a strong possibility despite the likely intense el nino that is developing.

[chaser1]

I think the key is exactly how active will August prove to be and precisely when might we truly see enhanced westerlies as a result of what should be an impending Nino event. Pending an answer to that second question, my leaning would be toward an active August. At this point though I think the big unknown is whether the Atlantic will ultimately have a front loaded yet abruptly abbreviated hurricane season or a season where El Nino somehow strengthens but with little impact to tropical development at all. If I were betting on El Nino to begin impacting the Atlantic by early September, then August production along with a few far north or eastern Atlantic tropical systems thereafter would seem adequate to produce an average number of named storms (perhaps even slightly above average?). More importantly though might be a smaller threat window for significant hurricane impact to population centers then an average season might pose. All the more reason to be less distracted by the long game and laser focused on the weeks ahead. We may be looking to mothball that bell as we approach Aug 20. On the other hand, that bell may soon herald in an Early Bird Special. See ya at Denny's

[Woofde]

The atmosphere still isn't really behaving like an El nino. The SOI started to trend upwards, but it's been registering some negative values recently. The 90 day index is still negative and the 30 day still hasn't touched the value threshold of 7 for El nino. Until it couples and acts more like an El nino should, I doubt we see the Atlantic shutting down.

[LarryWx]

This season to date is well ahead of the 1991-2020 average and even moreso for El Niño. The average 5th storm is not til Aug 22nd. Even if I ignore the Jan storm, the average 4th is not til Aug 15th! The average first H isn't til Aug 11th.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

[LarryWx]

Related to the near record warm SSTs near S Fl:

 Miami's high today of 98 was a record high. Since records started there in 1895 only one day has been hotter, 7/21/1942's 100!

 Miami's mean so far today is 90. If the AM low of 82 holds up for today's low, the 90 mean would tie with 7/24/1983 for the hottest mean on record! With no showers anywhere close and none expected to form, the 82 will very likely hold up.

[chaser1]

Related to the near record warm SSTs near S Fl:

 Miami's high today of 98 was a record high. Since records started there in 1895 only one day has been hotter, 7/21/1942's 100!

 Miami's mean so far today is 90. If the AM low of 82 holds up for today's low, the 90 mean would tie with 7/24/1983 for the hottest mean on record! With no showers anywhere close and none expected to form, the 82 will very likely hold up.

Curiously, (though likely coincidental) both of those years were low number tropical cyclone producing years

[GCANE]

Interesting MCS in the BoC.
Heavy convection mainly shear driven.
However, LLC is beginning to develop over the water.
Stay tuned.