Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Stratton23]

Frank P up until today i didnt even know their were any other AI models outside of the Euro AIFS, im gonna just assume the NHC doesnt weight those, could be wrong though

[Frank P]

TomballEd yes 40% is too low in my opinion, their has been enough uptick in ensemble support and global runs to justify that, the NHC is great at what they do, but they definitely do have a history of being too conservative with development chances

Since I doubt they will raise the chances for percentages to rise later, this almost guarantees they will raise them!

[Teban54]

Oddly a lot of the 18z GEFS ensembles seem a bit faster than the operational model with this tropical wave.

Euro still doesn't develop it and the GFS has been off and on, so more likely there isn't enough confidence right now

GFS has actually been developing it in the WCar consistently for a few runs now, if "a weak TD/TS" is all you need.

Additionally, while operational Euro remaind unenthused, its ensemble members have picked up on a BoC genesis:

[Stratton23]

Frank P ill try reverse psychology and say they dont raise them haha, im guessing they are gonna wait until the 00z runs come out, so we shall see, but generally 40-50% odds are fine right now

[TomballEd]

Oddly a lot of the 18z GEFS ensembles seem a bit faster than the operational model with this tropical wave.

Euro still doesn't develop it and the GFS has been off and on, so more likely there isn't enough confidence right now

GFS has actually been developing it in the WCar consistently for a few runs now, if "a weak TD/TS" is all you need.

Additionally, while operational Euro remaind unenthused, its ensemble members have picked up on a BoC genesis:

https://i.postimg.cc/Gp0JBJr8/ezgif-com-animated-gif-maker.gif

Some of those seems to be from the now 0% AOI

[Stratton23]

Im curious to see if we get an interaction between this wave and our gulf low, that could throw a wrench into all of this

[TomballEd]

Euro still doesn't develop it and the GFS has been off and on, so more likely there isn't enough confidence right now

GFS has actually been developing it in the WCar consistently for a few runs now, if "a weak TD/TS" is all you need.

Additionally, while operational Euro remaind unenthused, its ensemble members have picked up on a BoC genesis:

https://i.postimg.cc/Gp0JBJr8/ezgif-com-animated-gif-maker.gif

Some of those seems to be from the now 0% AOI

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMnlva2V0emU4ZjZpbDlqZGcyNmpyNjFjZGp0ZDBvYXVmaXJ1amhvZSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/hnTn2F9WSFIMdeHF6C/giphy.gif

18Z EPS have more of the same, weak lows developing in the W. Caribbean before the AOI gets on the scene. I'd think anything trying to develop might help pull the system, if it develops, from the BoC. I still like the NHC 40% for a TD or TS. H isn't impossible, but not likely. Work tomorrow, cloud tops with the wave have warmed quite a bit, will be interesting to see satellite presentation and models when I wake up.

[Teban54]

Happy hour GFS delivering as always.

Unlike most 18z runs, though, we should know whether it has merit in real time in just 12-18 hours. This run shows a big convective burst at 1z (3 hours from now) that continues for at least 6 hours (albeit fading out a bit at the next frame). If vorticity is still strong tomorrow morning, it would suggest 18z GFS may be catching up with short-term trends rather than doing typical happy hour stuff.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHvKBh7/image.png

If this latest pulse of convection near the middle of the wave axis that Frank P pointed out maintains itself. Then the 18z run might be onto something.

https://i.imgur.com/BLnufBa.gif

Narrator: It didn't.

Remember someone said recently that DMIN now feels more convectively active than DMAX?

[Stormlover70]

Nobody noticed the low coming into that? Looks more interesting than this wave.

[dexterlabio]

What are the chances of this pulling off a Harvey?

[IcyTundra]

What are the chances of this pulling off a Harvey?

Quite low there are no models indicating anything like that as of right now.

[Teban54]

What are the chances of this pulling off a Harvey?

Quite low there are no models indicating anything like that as of right now.

To be fair, I don't think models were expecting Harvey to become a Cat 4 until very close to its intensification, if not when it was already happening. At one point, even regeneration in the Gulf at all wasn't a guarantee.

That said, currently models seem to show persistent shear in the northern Gulf at least as far south as the US coastline, if not further. On the other hand, some Euro runs have an ULAC (?) near the US-Mexico border. I'm not sure how GFS has been bombing it out in the Gulf on some of its runs, but that could be what it's seeing. Either way, very low probability for now, but do note that many ensemble members that have the system picked up by a trough and moving north do have it intensify to a hurricane (though a small proportion of all members).

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In other news, I'm totally lost as to why this wave has the tendency to just stop generating convection every time it's on the verge of improving. It's not a basin-wide problem either (although it's certainly easy to think so), as the two MDR waves have been bursting all night.

[skyline385]

ICON also develops the AOI after crossing Yucatan now

[Stratton23]

Icon becomes a hurricane in the western gulf, looks to be moving north at the end of its run

[Frank P]

Icon becomes a hurricane in the western gulf, looks to be moving north at the end of its run

If you watch the Icon run in its entirety it looks to me the low currently off the TX coast drops down to the BOC as the Caribbean wave crosses the Yucatán and they merge creating the hurricane that eventually forms.. weird science right there

[LAF92]

Icon becomes a hurricane in the western gulf, looks to be moving north at the end of its run

If you watch the Icon run in its entirety it looks to me the low currently off the TX coast drops down to the BOC as the Caribbean wave crosses the Yucatán and they merge creating the hurricane that eventually forms.. weird science right there

I noticed that also. Curious to see if the 0z GFS or the 0z Euro show a similar setup

[skyline385]

Icon becomes a hurricane in the western gulf, looks to be moving north at the end of its run

If you watch the Icon run in its entirety it looks to me the low currently off the TX coast drops down to the BOC as the Caribbean wave crosses the Yucatán and they merge creating the hurricane that eventually forms.. weird science right there

I noticed that also. Curious to see if the 0z GFS or the 0z Euro show a similar setup

There were EPS members already showing that so its definitely not limited to the ICON only

[Stratton23]

And of course the GFS has nothing, the CMC still develops a TS though in the southern gulf, safe to say ensembles are still the way to go until we get consistent runs from the OP models

[Stratton23]

GEFS has backed off on development, still a lot of uncertainty though

[MarioProtVI]

GEFS has backed off on development, still a lot of uncertainty though

Virtually no model develops it anymore. I think it’s time to drop chances as the GFS was really the only one still predicting development. The BoC/Western Gulf chances are a wild card and don’t even matter if the wave buries itself into Central America. To think the EPS on August 26 was saying we’d have a hurricane north of PR or so right now which ended up trending to basically nothing is