Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Steve]

Icon 990 into Grand Isle. Looks like it’s being stretched into the conus trough. Landfall about midnight Friday and at 999

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=165

[sweetpea]

Josh Morgerman tweeted this after Debby (and Idalia the year before). Based on model trends the Weather Gods don't appear to be listening to him.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1820441484165845219

"Josh, your wish is my command". Sopchoppy it is!

No Sopchoppy, that is where I live.

[StPeteMike]

Boy, I’m still not convinced the models aren’t struggling with the CAG. The 50% in the Eastern Pacific doesn’t sound like the system some of the models are showing as it mentions “well to the southwest of the Southwest coast” and the models show this developing right along the coast. Only thing I think the models are correct with is the future Caribbean storm sucking up a lot of the moisture from the Eastern Pacific and feeding itself.

Here comes the 12z!

[Stormlover70]

As always, the future tracks is iffy until we have something to track. I expect the current thunderstorm activity off of Honduras to fizzle again.

What is really starting to concern me is the the CMC and GFS seem to agree that whatever develops will be a large system, with the circulation and bands over more than half of the GoM, which could make storm flooding a major issue for all of the Florida Gulf Coast.

https://i.ibb.co/tPtVX9J/gem-ir-watl-22.png

https://i.ibb.co/S6fyBY3/gfs-ir-watl-20.png

either of these runs put me on the dirty side. Looking at the blob down there makes me think of a shift east. Models did not Forcast this.

[Steve]

Sopchoppy? That’s a place with one of the more interesting histories.

[DunedinDave]

I guess I don’t know how you can take a model seriously that still doesn’t have this thing developed 4-5 days from now. I don’t know…maybe that’s just me.

[Powellrm]

As always, the future tracks is iffy until we have something to track. I expect the current thunderstorm activity off of Honduras to fizzle again.

What is really starting to concern me is the the CMC and GFS seem to agree that whatever develops will be a large system, with the circulation and bands over more than half of the GoM, which could make storm flooding a major issue for all of the Florida Gulf Coast.

https://i.ibb.co/tPtVX9J/gem-ir-watl-22.png

https://i.ibb.co/S6fyBY3/gfs-ir-watl-20.png

That’s a pretty darn large potential storm. It would appear things are starting to move along. I’ll stay tuned for how this develops into Monday. This is the most I’ve ever read the word “Gyre”.

[chaser1]

Josh Morgerman tweeted this after Debby (and Idalia the year before). Based on model trends the Weather Gods don't appear to be listening to him.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1820441484165845219

"Josh, your wish is my command". Sopchoppy it is!

No Sopchoppy, that is where I live.

No offense LOL! No doubt, I'm sure that you head for the hills as soon as any Warnings are ever issued. I can't imagine any structure that would not be severely affected by storm surge from a major 'cane there. I have friends in Crawfordville and have driven through Sopchoppy numerous times.

[chaser1]

Sopchoppy? That’s a place with one of the more interesting histories.

Really? Elaborate?

[sweetpea]

"Josh, your wish is my command". Sopchoppy it is!

No Sopchoppy, that is where I live.

No offense LOL! No doubt, I'm sure that you head for the hills as soon as any Warnings are ever issued. I can't imagine any structure that would not be severely affected by storm surge from a major 'cane there. I have friends in Crawfordville and have driven through Sopchoppy numerous times.

We have been here 5 years, haven't left before. But with this one, we might depending on what it does. Definitely watching it closely.

[gatorcane]

12Z models suggesting there could be wind shear across the GOM, especially northern GOM not to mention the system could be very large and not really able to consolidate prior to landfall along the north-Central Gulf coast. Also seems there is a good amount of dry across the WGOM and South-Central US that gets entrained into the system as it moves north. Most of the squalls and rainfall could be on the eastern side of whatever develops. Good news, hopefully it continues.

[robbielyn]

I know I speak for a lot of people in the Tampa Bay Area but the last thing we need is another Debby where we get a foot of rain from this thing. We had a 10 minute thunderstorm yesterday and my street flooded because of all the rain we’ve had this summer. We need a drying out period…like 3 months of it to get back to normal.

Exactly! We don’t need any tropical system at this point. please if i hv to come head north and west but we really don’t want you at all anywhere.

[MetroMike]

Looks like another slop system. smh

[Nimbus]

Look what we have tentatively for monday:

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
NEAR 17.5N 84.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

I think the GFS initialized this about -82 but there might be a low levle center by Monday.

[Steve]

Sopchoppy? That’s a place with one of the more interesting histories.

Really? Elaborate?

TLDR version is that on a couple of occasions silver-tongued snake oil salesmen overpromoted what it was and scammed people out of money. Not that it isn’t a beautiful part of our state. Been around a bunch of Wakulla Co over the years and personally dig it.

[Steve]

CMC has a sheared 994mb system hitting around the MS/AL border Thursday pm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=126

Guess it’s time to look at ICON GFS and CMC @ 500 to see why this is faster and moving in then NNW up to Arkansas. I’m guessing it’s getting sucked into the trough. Next post 500 links (sorry on mobile)

[WeatherBoy2000]

Models seem to be favoring a faster moving storm that won't have much time to consolidate in gulf, this could still change but it's an encouraging trend for those on the gulf coast.

[toad strangler]

FWIW looks like every notable member of the 12z GEFS goes into Florida. Could make for a rainy day on the peninsula.

[Steve]

ICON - has a distinct system in the EPAC. Upper low over OK and KS draws it in. Ridging to the east. Hour 153 (21z next Friday)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=153

GFS - low over OK and KS also a storm in the EPAC. Low deeper on GFS with weaker and less expansive ridging to the system’s east. Hour 138 (12z Friday)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=138

CMC - stronger ridging to the east of the system and deeper low centered closer to Dallas. Much weaker system in the EPAC than the other 2. Hour 126 which is 18z Thursday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=126

[ConvergenceZone]

Overnight runs trended back east. Still think Panhandle to Big Bend is the most likely area for landfall. In late September, I’d be surprised to not see a hook to the north and east.

The biggest question is where it consolidates. The GFS seems to have convective feedback on the north and eastern side of convection. This is certainly possible, but typically more common for sheared symptoms. I don’t think this system will face shear until close to landfall. This is what gives me pause in calling a slam dunk Florida landfall.

My hunch is still Pensacola to Tampa.

I'm so glad there suppose to be lots of shear in the Gulf. That's probably why the models keep this in check. They are seeing the shear as well. Still can get a hurricane out of it though if the conditions and timing are right.