Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

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Scorpion

#81 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:02 pm

They probably want to see it persist.
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Extremeweatherguy
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#82 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:03 pm

gatorcane wrote:NHC not gunhoe on it at all...

amazing..
they are probably more concerned with Ernesto right now and since the wave is no immediate threat they are taking a slow approach.
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Ola
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#83 Postby Ola » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:06 pm

Actually I think all that convection is more related to monsoon trough rather than an actual TW. Look at the latest GFS which does develop a low in that area but doesnt move it west. There might be a wave but its farther north and east and the actual convection is in the ITZ/monsoon trough.
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#84 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:07 pm

Ola wrote:Actually I think all that convection is more related to monsoon trough rather than an actual TW. Look at the latest GFS which does develop a low in that area but doesnt move it west. There might be a wave but its farther north and east and the actual convection is in the ITZ/monsoon trough.
The GFS does show a wave axis moving west toward the islands though.
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#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:12 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Ola is right about the latest 18z GFS run not showing anything moving to the islands.Let's see what the 00z run has.
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#86 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:13 pm

I'd declare it 98L now, but I still think it is 48 hours or so from development.
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#87 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Ola is right about the latest 18z GFS run not showing anything moving to the islands.Let's see what the 00z run has.
it shows little to no moisture, but if you look at the 500mb vort, you can clearly see a wave axis just east of the islands in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
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Ola
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#88 Postby Ola » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:31 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Ola is right about the latest 18z GFS run not showing anything moving to the islands.Let's see what the 00z run has.
it shows little to no moisture, but if you look at the 500mb vort, you can clearly see a wave axis just east of the islands in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml


48 hours?

You are talking about this wave(from the 8pm TWD):

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 24N MOVING W 15
KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N. THE SFC LOW IS
RATHER LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS DEVOID
OF CONVECTION AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT.



That is not the same wave that this thread is about. That is actually the wave AFM made a thread a few days ago talking about its huge cyclonic envelope while still inside of Africa.

Nevertheless, not the same feature we are all watching here.
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#89 Postby Zardoz » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:33 pm

Seems to be developing quickly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

Lots of possible siblings following on:

Eumetsat
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#90 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:36 pm

Honestly.

That looks stronger than Ernesto.
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#91 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:41 pm

The wave seems to becoming sharper...Nice convection in inflow developing. I give it a fair chance at becoming something. But there is a little shear a head of it. Also the system to the northwest is interesting have to watch it.
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#92 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:53 pm

Maybe this one will make it through the year of the shear.
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#93 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:43 am

Is it quite possible that this wave feeds into the low at 18 north
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#94 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:47 am

Looks like it will turn north into weakness.
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#95 Postby Droop12 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:59 am

Looks like the UL to the NW of the wave is causing all kinds of shear out in front of it. Story of the year. :lol:
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#96 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:03 am

Year of the shear!
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#97 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:06 am

I wonder if this was the CMC model run which I saw (when looking at Ernesto) which showed a well defined system developing from Cape Verde to the Lesser Antilles. It really looked like the model was confident of it.
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#98 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:12 am

Droop12 wrote:Looks like the UL to the NW of the wave is causing all kinds of shear out in front of it. Story of the year. :lol:


What ULL? The isnt an ULL anywhere near the system
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#99 Postby calculatedrisk » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:35 am

GOES-12: 0615 SAT image:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Image
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#100 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:19 am

Nice southly/southeastly/northeastly wind on this quickscat!
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png
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