INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

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JamesFromMaine2
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#81 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:01 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:91L is a weak LLC off Florida not likely to move into the gulf. Why 1# A trough is coming down from the midwest. 2#dry air over the gulf.

92L went poof!

93L has a weak MLC with some convection but doe's not look as good as this morning. But is The most likely to develop.


Sorry Matt but is there another 93L out there somewhere cause the one I am looking at is not a "weak MLC"! The one I see is a well defined LLC with banding and 25 to 30kt winds so should be upgraded as a TD!
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#82 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:06 pm

I'v been gone since 11am so I'v not looked. It was 101 degrees so we went to the lake. I will have to get updated on this.
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#83 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:09 pm

It definately should NOT be upgraded to a tropical depression

The system is too weak to even generate a Dvorak classification at the present time. Not even close to TD status yet
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#84 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:14 pm

"Dvorak classification" means what? [I certainly hope I'm not the only one who wishes to know. Perhaps it's just an official term for something commonly known.
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#85 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:17 pm

The Dvorak technique is a method using enhanced Infrared and/or visible satellite imagery to quantitatively estimate the intensity of a tropical system. Cloud patterns in satellite imagery normally show an indication of cyclogenesis before the storm reaches tropical storm intensity. Indications of continued development and/or weakening can also be found in the cloud features. Using these features, the pattern formed by the clouds of a tropical cyclone, expected systematic development, and a series of rules, an intensity analysis and forecast can be made. This information is then standardized into an intensity code.
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#86 Postby drezee » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:17 pm

OK, Let's talk about what we know about Invest 93L. It has clear Low level rotary circulation. It has for 36 hours now. It does not have a deep convection, but continues to generate moderate convection near or over the center. It has a small area of influence, so it can spin up fast or spin down fast.
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#87 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:18 pm

Nevermind. Answered my own question...

This is a very interesting read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
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#88 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:18 pm

thats so weird this doesnt even have dvorak classification, didnt 91L have a 1.0? This is better organized and it has a better satelite presentation..."I wouldnt be surprised"(not going to go out as far on a limb)if it made it to a depression within the next 36 hours
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#89 Postby no advance » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:22 pm

Looks like the pulse is over. Does not look like a td. Good night.
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#90 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:24 pm

what are you talking about...its been around for 6 hours and you automatically say its dead...thats worse than me :lol:
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#91 Postby NONAME » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:30 pm

What hurricane is that in your avatar is is ivan.
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#92 Postby SkeetoBite » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:32 pm

Image
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#93 Postby drezee » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:33 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 260116
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 0000 060626 1200 060627 0000 060627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 7.2N 44.0W 8.0N 47.2W 8.8N 50.5W 9.7N 53.8W
BAMM 7.2N 44.0W 7.8N 47.3W 8.5N 50.8W 9.2N 54.3W
A98E 7.2N 44.0W 7.5N 46.0W 8.3N 48.3W 9.3N 50.9W
LBAR 7.2N 44.0W 7.7N 46.9W 8.5N 50.0W 9.4N 53.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 0000 060629 0000 060630 0000 060701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 57.1W 12.8N 63.3W 15.8N 68.4W 18.8N 71.8W
BAMM 9.9N 57.8W 11.3N 64.1W 13.3N 69.8W 15.4N 75.0W
A98E 9.9N 53.6W 12.6N 59.0W 15.0N 64.2W 17.9N 67.9W
LBAR 10.1N 57.3W 11.6N 64.2W 13.8N 68.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 52KTS 58KTS 58KTS
DSHP 41KTS 50KTS 57KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.2N LONCUR = 44.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 7.1N LONM12 = 42.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 7.0N LONM24 = 40.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#94 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:33 pm

NONAME wrote:What hurricane is that in your avatar is is ivan.


If ur talking to me then yes, thats Ivan
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#95 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:34 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:Image


And there you go... Eventhough it is the bamms, 98 and the lbar. I guess gfdl will be out in the 00Z run.
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#96 Postby NONAME » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:34 pm

it has modest streghting
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#97 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:37 pm

I will admit that 93L IS something that does warrant at least some discussion. I have been following what looks like a weak LLC near 8N/42W out in advance of the main wave axis and MLC near 10N/40W today. It's clear that the disturbance is moving very quickly, so quickly that it will likely have a hard time organizing over the next 3-4 days. By "hard time" I mean that it will probably remain as it is, or perhaps weaken a bit.

Once it reaches the eastern Caribbean in 3-4 days it may experience increasing wind shear, another minus for development. That shear may not abate until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean in another week or so. But it's way too early to tell if it'll just skirt across Central America and enter the Eastern Pacific or possibly be far enough north to reach the Yucatan. My estimate would be most likely a track toward Belize then possibly the southern BoC, but that's a very low confidence forecast.

There could well be a chance for development next weekend if there's anything left of it when it slows down and convergence increases in the western Caribbean.

As for a model to follow, I'd look at the BAMS (shallow-layer BAM), which the NHC doesn't publish to the public, as this is a low-level system.

One final factor to consider is that I scheduled July 3rd off as a vacation day. So that pretty much seals the deal. ;-)
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#98 Postby Tampa_God » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:42 pm

93L has lost most of its convention, maybe a re0fire on storms around the center by early morning. All and all, this has the most chance to form. Amazing to see nice waves come off the African coast so early in the season, should be seeing this in August. Another wave is going to be coming off the coast soon.
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#99 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:44 pm

Another view of the tropical models (hit refresh if not showing current system):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif
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#100 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:I will admit that 93L IS something that does warrant at least some discussion. I have been following what looks like a weak LLC near 8N/42W out in advance of the main wave axis and MLC near 10N/40W today. It's clear that the disturbance is moving very quickly, so quickly that it will likely have a hard time organizing over the next 3-4 days. By "hard time" I mean that it will probably remain as it is, or perhaps weaken a bit.

Once it reaches the eastern Caribbean in 3-4 days it may experience increasing wind shear, another minus for development. That shear may not abate until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean in another week or so. But it's way too early to tell if it'll just skirt across Central America and enter the Eastern Pacific or possibly be far enough north to reach the Yucatan. My estimate would be most likely a track toward Belize then possibly the southern BoC, but that's a very low confidence forecast.

There could well be a chance for development next weekend if there's anything left of it when it slows down and convergence increases in the western Caribbean.

As for a model to follow, I'd look at the BAMS (shallow-layer BAM), which the NHC doesn't publish to the public, as this is a low-level system.

One final factor to consider is that I scheduled July 3rd off as a vacation day. So that pretty much seals the deal. ;-)


so your going to just ignore the models and say its not going to develop right away? the models bring it up to 30kts with in 12 hours and 70mph about with in the next 120 hours
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