Tropical Depression Alberto Advisories

[CrazyC83]

Charely was much stronger to begin with.

Yes, and it was August when the water was even warmer. He was a Category 2 when he first crossed the pool of water.

[HurricaneGirl]

Ugh! Where is the advisory already????

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 121758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Not a hurricane. 4:00 advisory is critical.

[Brent]

Timing got moved up. Tuesday Morning as opposed to Tuesday Evening.

[Stratusxpeye]

Yes agreed But this title of the thread says NNE? It says NE in the advisory. And as seen on radar and sat looks def amore easterly component than northerly.

[Swimdude]

Does everyone remember last night's threads at, oh, midnight?

"ALBERTO IS DEAD"

Hahaha...

[jdray]

Moving NE, defintely south of their last path.

heading back towards Cedar Key landfall perhaps.

[brunota2003]

If NE then that takes a track that skims the SE coast...however that is provided the track does not shift, even slightly...however most of the worst wx would be off the coast...

[LAwxrgal]

Charely was much stronger to begin with.

Agreed. I was just giving examples of recent storms that strengthened when they crossed this pool of water.

I'm briefly checking out the satellite, and this thing is definitely moving ne now or even ene. It's headed probably for the Big Bend area tomorrow, trough is definitely picking it up.

I'm not familiar with this area, what's the topography like?

[Nimbus]

LLC is moving NNE last few frames. The nasty weather is all being sheared NE.

[Stormcenter]

Yes agreed But this title of the thread says NNE? It says NE in the advisory. And as seen on radar and sat looks def amore easterly component than northerly.

It looks NE even on radar. It may have been moving ENE earlier but not any longer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[seaswing]

Moving NE, defintely south of their last path.

heading back towards Cedar Key landfall perhaps.

Still wondering if Jim Cantore will be in Cedar Key....

[tallywx]

LLC is moving NNE last few frames. The nasty weather is all being sheared NE.

Confirmed via VORTEX data plots:



NNE jog puts it back on 11 a.m. forecast track. I still think a Taylor County/Steinhatchee landfall is a good bet.

[LAwxrgal]

Yes agreed But this title of the thread says NNE? It says NE in the advisory. And as seen on radar and sat looks def amore easterly component than northerly.

It looks NE even on radar. It may have been moving ENE earlier but not any longer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Here we go with the wobble watching

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Boy do things change fast...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yes agreed But this title of the thread says NNE? It says NE in the advisory. And as seen on radar and sat looks def amore easterly component than northerly.

It looks NE even on radar. It may have been moving ENE earlier but not any longer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Here we go with the wobble watching

Though even the smallest wobble could change the track of this storm significantly.

[JonathanBelles]

Yes agreed But this title of the thread says NNE? It says NE in the advisory. And as seen on radar and sat looks def amore easterly component than northerly.

It looks NE even on radar. It may have been moving ENE earlier but not any longer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Here we go with the wobble watching

Though even the smallest wobble could change the track of this storm significantly.

i know ie charley

[HurricaneHunter914]

Charley is a great example, the track use to be toward Tampa, but instead Punta Gorda got the full blast.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Yes agreed But this title of the thread says NNE? It says NE in the advisory. And as seen on radar and sat looks def amore easterly component than northerly.

It looks NE even on radar. It may have been moving ENE earlier but not any longer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Here we go with the wobble watching

Though even the smallest wobble could change the track of this storm significantly.

i know ie charley

Rita had an important wobble, too. And Katrina wobbled a little further east.