Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

[wx247]

I see no surface reflection yet. The spinning does not necessarily mean that this is a surface feature. What this does mean... development or not... is continued heavy rain.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think we can safely say we now have a REAL system to watch for potential slow development, not just a blob in which everyone is blindly screaming over without looking at the unfavorable environment around it. THIS system, however, actually has a chance and needs to be watched.

[MiamiensisWx]

I see no surface reflection yet. The spinning does not necessarily mean that this is a surface feature. What this does mean... development or not... is continued heavy rain.

True, but in a setup like this, a weak surface low could form/materialize at any time, especially around now. I agree on the rain... unfortunately, this is more unpleasant news for the Houston area and surrounding area.

[wx247]

Understood. By the way, can you link me to some shear maps? S2K's maps are down.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here you go...



As you can see, the environment has definately become more favorable.

[wx247]

I meant general links, but that works, too!

[MiamiensisWx]

Sorry... I though you said the links were down! I'll try to post links instead or thumbnails...

[MiamiensisWx]

If you look at the system, it seems to be feeding off some moisture from a lower shear environment on nearby land over Texas, where shear is around 10KT to 15KT or less. That, combined with the convection near the small possible developing low, could help a bit in development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just so you guys know...the low-level circulation is already over land. any swirl you see in the Gulf right now is not low-level yet. Also, another interesting area is south in the bay of campeche where something may try to get organized.

[skysummit]

wx247.....here are wind analysis maps:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

[HouTXmetro]

Just so you guys know...the low-level circulation is already over land. any swirl you see in the Gulf right now is not low-level yet. Also, another interesting area is south in the bay of campeche where something may try to get organized.

When was a low level circulation ever established?

[Thunder44]

This looks VERY similar to Allison.....

There's no surface low or LLC forming there at all. Buoys all show E or SE winds through that area and pressure are fairly high around 1012 to 1014 mbs and rising.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42046

[skysummit]

This map is showing a low to mid level circulation.

[MiamiensisWx]

Just so you guys know...the low-level circulation is already over land. any swirl you see in the Gulf right now is not low-level yet. Also, another interesting area is south in the bay of campeche where something may try to get organized.

The area in the Bay of Campeche is not really in an ideal environment. Also, the Bay of Campeche system is showing outflow boundaries and as mainly a swirl of clouds in a high shear environment along a trough - not exactly what you would look for in terms of development, even in this time of year in the BOC when something may try to form. Compared to the Bay of Campeche system, the system near Matagorda has - comparatively - a better chance, although it is still slight.

[MiamiensisWx]

There's no surface low or LLC forming there at all. Buoys all show E or SE winds through that area and pressure are fairly high around 1012 to 1014 mbs and rising.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42046

There could be some low west winds in another small portion around the possible low center or elsewhere.

By the way, even if the current LLC may be over land, in situations like this, the original center can easily dissipate and a new center may form.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just so you guys know...the low-level circulation is already over land. any swirl you see in the Gulf right now is not low-level yet. Also, another interesting area is south in the bay of campeche where something may try to get organized.

The area in the Bay of Campeche is not really in an ideal environment. Also, the Bay of Campeche system is showing outflow boundaries and as mainly a swirl of clouds in a high shear environment along a trough - not exactly what you would look for in terms of development, even in this time of year in the BOC when something may try to form. Compared to the Bay of Campeche system, the system near Matagorda has - comparatively - a better chance, although it is still slight.

GFS has been picking up on an area of low pressure there in the southern GOM. I am just suprised that no one has mentioned it. Check out the Cyclone Phase and Analysis page and you'll see what i'm talking about.

[MiamiensisWx]

GFS has been picking up on an area of low pressure there in the southern GOM. I am just suprised that no one has mentioned it. Check out the Cyclone Phase and Analysis page and you'll see what i'm talking about.

Interesting... perhaps a low may develop there later on in a few to several days when the environment and synoptic might be favorable. Can you provide a link to it, please? Thanks!

[skysummit]

KCRP is showing counter clockwise rotation in the area I circled.

[HouTXmetro]

KCRP is showing counter clockwise rotation in the area I circled.

Oh ohh.... convection is starting to fire over this possible LLC/MLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh ohh.... convection is starting to fire over this possible LLC/MLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Yes, it is looking better.