95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah Vince showed us how slow the nhc is on these systems. But the system still looks to have a front 1#...In a comma like cloud shield. It likely is taking its energy from extratropical.

If models shows it forming a warm core thats a step farward. But convection will have to form near the center over the next few days.

[Forecaster Colby]

There's already plenty of convection near the center, take a look at I.R. loops.

[Coredesat]

NHC continues to be a broken record:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST MON NOV 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Forecaster Colby]

....What the...

How in the world can they fail to call this a subtropical system?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NHC continues to be a broken record:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST MON NOV 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

They like to do there work like a broken record

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

....What the...

How in the world can they fail to call this a subtropical system?

Its starting to trasform give it another 24 hours. We need t numbers issued with more deep convection nera the core. Not quite subtropical yet.

[Forecaster Colby]

Winds of a T.S.

Per FSU, warm core.



Oranges showing near the center, that's as much as Gamma ever had.

[superfly]

Still extratropical, comma shaped.

[brunota2003]

look at this beauteful thing!!!:
40 knots with a pressure of 991 millibars... WOW!!!

[brunota2003]

Code: Select all

        T-----------
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F      Hopefully 95L!!!
  R
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*chomp*

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on 95L you can do it!!! Wahooo!!!!


Yes its extratropical in it is not likely to become subtropical intill that comma go's away+Front. Delta is looking less likely...

[Forecaster Colby]

Why are you all giving up on it just because it isn't Hurricane Delta yet

[Forecaster Colby]

That picture is not 95l. This system has alot more deep convection near the center.

[HURAKAN]

40kts-988mb-316N-401W

988 MB NOW: GET DOWN, GET DOWN!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It took the nhc 2 days to upgrade Vince in he had a eye+every piece of data showing that he was in fact a tropical cyclone. This still has a comma+front. In has not t numbers. The nhc will not upgrade this...Even if the models show it to be warm core.

[HURAKAN]

It took the nhc 2 days to upgrade Vince in he had a eye+every piece of data showing that he was in fact a tropical cyclone. This still has a comma+front. In has not t numbers. The nhc will not upgrade this...Even if the models show it to be warm core.

Remember how we struggled last year with Otto!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it took along time for them to upgrade that one. In it looked like a tropical cyclone this looks like a comma/extratropcal cyclone.

[JamesFromMaine2]

at this rate this could go from Invest right to Hurricane! lol

[WindRunner]

Gotta love Formosa:

ATLANTIC...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-70W. A 994 GALE LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 29N38W TO 26N40W 23N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FURTHER E
ALONG 27N33W 20N39W 16N44W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA NEAR 22N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
BETWEEN 55W-80W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W...OVER THE GALE LOW. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
S TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N40W.

$$
FORMOSA

[wxmann_91]

at this rate this could go from Invest right to Hurricane! lol

It has happened before...and when you think about it it is actually quite plausible. Some extratropical lows have had pressures and winds of Cat 3 strength, so theoritically, if they had turned into warm-core systems, they would've gone from Invest to Cat 3 right away.