Gamma No Threat to FL

[Windtalker1]

We have all been know to be wrong in our predictions.....

That's true...and I'm not imune. Now...if you would like to discuss the meteorological data to why I might be incorrect in my assumptions...I'm game. I see 80-90 kts of wind over so.flo....and right now I see a whole lot of stable air/cold air strato-cu sitting over the GoM with low THP's and lot's of dry mid-tropospheric air. That's how I came to my forecast. What do you see differently?

Correct me if I'm wrong....I see a developing System to the South of us with tropical moisture streaming North and Northeast. I see a "stalled" weak cold front hung up at the Lake and will not move through S Florida till sometime Tuesday. Seems to me that the tropical moisture is winning the war on this southern movement of a very weak cold front and has stopped it in it's tracks. This storm if it becomes one will no way be a central Fl event. It will be an event S of the Lake....remember, I'm no expert....I have alot to learn and the only thing I have going for me is the correct track I did for Katrina and Wilma by looking at all the facts before making my prediction....Thanks for any help you can give me on this matter...... PS isn't the 80-90kt wind more central & northern Florida?

[gatorcane]

I'm not saying a Wilma situation...

That cold front is WEAKENING right now....do you think it will last for several days that far south? High pressure is building in.

Even if a T.S moves into S. Florida it would be very bad considering how battered we are.

No wilma here...but concern.

[mike815]

The thing is its not going to be a monster anything. just a TS or maybe outside chance at a 1. though it could cause problems in south fl at least.

[mike815]

yes boca. it just poses a slight concern.

[HURAKAN]

I think the cold front that would play a critical role on the path of this system will be the one that is forecasted to pass through SF on Sunday.

[mike815]

yeah it will be a key player.

[Air Force Met]

well that cold front is in the process of weakening now....and high pressure is building in behind it....

That is why the "cold air" clouds in the GOM are moving WSW....around the flow of the high to the north....

cold fronts don't last that long across south FL.

There is a little problem here in what you are saying. Cold fronts do not weaken when highs build in behind them...they strengthen. When highs weaken...then the fronts weaken. When highs build, fronts strengthen. That's how it works.

Not sure the point you are trying to make about the cloud movement...the clouds are moving WSW because that's the flow around the high as it slides east. Just because the cold air doesn't "last" doesn't mean the environment automatically goes back to being warm and tropical. The dry air remains. As a tropical system starts to wrap up...it will begin to pull more of that dry air in.

[HURAKAN]

Raining right now. Looks like a winter day.

[mike815]

its just fantastic here in central fl.

[CHRISTY]

totally agree ! with boca its hard to say iam excited like air force met said to me because he hasnt been threw 2 hurricanes this year! so any tropical system that would affect florida now would be bad even a weak TS, were still trying to get our lives back together here in south florida..and to be honest my sister lost her moble home during wilma so dont tell me i have a tendency to get exited!!!

[jusforsean]

question:
cold front suppose to come in sunday and last how long? This is suppose to be like a wed storm or not?? I think all of the models are in a somewhat aggreance on this can we really doubt them because we are almost 5 days out or will there be some data that the models will pickup on in a day or two and change the whole thing?

[Damar91]

to get exited?

[HURAKAN]

We may see a Michelle track-like scenario.

[SWFLMom]

could someone post the current air temps and the forecast air temps for the next few days? That might settle that part of the discussion.

I don't know if this is what you are looking for, but our local forecast has highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 60s for the next week or so.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... L&site=MFL

[Damar91]

thanks,swflmom, but I was meaning the upper air temps that this storm will have to deal with potentially. Thanks though!

[Air Force Met]

Correct me if I'm wrong....I see a developing System to the South of us with tropical moisture streaming North and Northeast. I see a "stalled" weak cold front hung up at the Lake and will not move through S Florida till sometime Tuesday. Seems to me that the tropical moisture is winning the war on this southern movement of a very weak cold front and has stopped it in it's tracks. This storm if it becomes one will no way be a central Fl event. It will be an event S of the Lake....remember, I'm no expert....I have alot to learn and the only thing I have going for me is the correct track I did for Katrina and Wilma by looking at all the facts before making my prediction....Thanks for any help you can give me on this matter......

OK...you have the first part right...yes...weak front. However, what you are failing to take into account is two things: 1) The upper level environment that will absolutely rip Gamma to shreads if it comes near south Florida. 2) Just because the front is in Cntl Florida doesn't mean it won't influence Gamma. Tropical systems have a large circulation evelope. The pull moisture from far and wide. ONce it gets near the GoM, even though the front is near Cntl Florida, where is it over the Cntl and Western Gulf? It's not all about Florida and where the front is there. The front...and the dry, stable air (even though the temps may be modified...the dry air is still there) is all the way into the BoC). Once Gamma gets near the Yuc...all that dry air will start to entrain into the western quad....even though the front is still hundreds of miles to the north. Dewpoints in the central gulf are in the mid 50's. IN the Sw GoM they are in the low and mid 60's. That is dry. That will entrain into "Gamma" and since we are in Mid November and water temps aren't as warm as they used to be...those dew points are now going to moderate as fast as they would if this was last month.

Bottom line: As "Gamma" (And I do think it will be Gamma) moves into the NW Car near the Yuk, it will start to ingest air with dewpoints in the 60-65 degree range...and start to encounter 30-40 kt winds. That's "knot" good.

Even right now the winds neat Cancun are about 30 knots out of the sw. 50 knots in the extreme SE GoM.

[Windtalker1]

Correct me if I'm wrong....I see a developing System to the South of us with tropical moisture streaming North and Northeast. I see a "stalled" weak cold front hung up at the Lake and will not move through S Florida till sometime Tuesday. Seems to me that the tropical moisture is winning the war on this southern movement of a very weak cold front and has stopped it in it's tracks. This storm if it becomes one will no way be a central Fl event. It will be an event S of the Lake....remember, I'm no expert....I have alot to learn and the only thing I have going for me is the correct track I did for Katrina and Wilma by looking at all the facts before making my prediction....Thanks for any help you can give me on this matter......

OK...you have the first part right...yes...weak front. However, what you are failing to take into account is two things: 1) The upper level environment that will absolutely rip Gamma to shreads if it comes near south Florida. 2) Just because the front is in Cntl Florida doesn't mean it won't influence Gamma. Tropical systems have a large circulation evelope. The pull moisture from far and wide. ONce it gets near the GoM, even though the front is near Cntl Florida, where is it over the Cntl and Western Gulf? It's not all about Florida and where the front is there. The front...and the dry, stable air (even though the temps may be modified...the dry air is still there) is all the way into the BoC). Once Gamma gets near the Yuc...all that dry air will start to entrain into the western quad....even though the front is still hundreds of miles to the north. Dewpoints in the central gulf are in the mid 50's. IN the Sw GoM they are in the low and mid 60's. That is dry. That will entrain into "Gamma" and since we are in Mid November and water temps aren't as warm as they used to be...those dew points are now going to moderate as fast as they would if this was last month.

Bottom line: As "Gamma" (And I do think it will be Gamma) moves into the NW Car near the Yuk, it will start to ingest air with dewpoints in the 60-65 degree range...and start to encounter 30-40 kt winds. That's "knot" good.

Even right now the winds neat Cancun are about 30 knots out of the sw. 50 knots in the extreme SE GoM.

Doesn't a developing system moving with the jet stream tend to get less sheered? ala Wilma?

[Air Force Met]

totally agree ! with boca its hard to say iam excited like air force met said to me because he hasnt been threw 2 hurricanes this year! so any tropical system that would affect florida now would be bad even a weak TS, were still trying to get our lives back together here in south florida..and to be honest my sister lost her moble home during wilma so dont tell me i have a tendency to get exited!!!

Hey...I was staring down the barrel of Rita as a Cat 5...and I live 15 miles from the Coast and I was in the track of her eastern eyewall for the better part of 2 days. Don't tell me how I am supposed to react. I evacuated my family and was ordered to stay at work so that we might begin relief efforts as soon as 40 knot winds subsided. I had planned on losing everything I owned...and everying my family owned since they all live nearby....and mayby even my life since I could not evacuate...because I am in the military and HAD to stay at the base and we were going to be taking the right eyewall as well. Even then I was not running around like chicken little. So...I can speak with a little experience...I don't speak without total knowledge of what it's like.

[Air Force Met]

Doesn't a developing system moving with the jet stream tend to get less sheered? ala Wilma?

Yes...but with upper level winds forecast to 80-90 kts...it would have to be moving at about 60 kts in order to even stay in one piece.

So...either it gets sheared...or the whole timing thing is way off and it moves a lot faster than forecast....which means it is there sooner than 84 hours and before the 90 kt winds but still under the shear of some 60 kt winds.

[Damar91]

I think this season has everyone on edge.