Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1345Z
D. 12.5N 82.5W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FOLLOW ON MISSION
FOR 18/1800Z IF SYSTEM REMAINS OFF SHORE.


Recon for Thursday with takeoff at 9:45 AM EST.

The system is beginning to move westward and it may be running out of time before it has a chance to develop.

[cycloneye]

Yep that is right Sandy.It depends on how fast moves cause the interaction with land more rapid.But neverless it looks very organized right now.

[dixiebreeze]

93 Invest has T# 1.0/1,0...

Luis, I thought this was a recon thread because of the title.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like reguardless of if this goes inland or not the Moisture of what ever is left will be pulled NE with the next front...This should clean out the crap and then we should call it a year..

[cycloneye]

93 Invest has T# 1.0/1,0...

Luis, I thought this was a recon thread because of the title.

Oh no dixie I edited for a short time the info about recon. That will go in minutes to give way to the 11:30 AM TWO.

[Brent]

It doesn't have much time... headed for land.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 161607
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN



11:30 AM TWO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So we have potent looking invest to suck in the convection of
ex-TD 27... interesting...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This system looks well organized for an invest...
Convection appears to cover a very large area

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like a circulation may be trying to or in the process of developing...

[Sanibel]

TD27 is still there. It jumped ahead to meet the surface spiral north of Colombia. However it is too weak to form and should get taken into 93L's circulation and absorbed.

This is the year of repeats. The SW corner of the Gulf had several similar cyclones and now 93L is a repeat of Beta...

[cycloneye]

865
WHXX04 KWBC 161724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 80.9 290./ 5.0
6 11.6 81.3 283./ 4.3
12 12.0 81.9 304./ 6.3
18 12.1 82.6 278./ 6.8
24 12.4 83.1 294./ 6.0
30 12.4 83.5 284./ 3.6
36 12.8 83.6 343./ 4.1
42 13.3 83.9 322./ 5.5
48 13.8 84.5 313./ 7.2
54 14.4 85.0 323./ 8.0
60 14.9 85.6 305./ 7.5
66 14.8 86.1 262./ 5.1
72 15.2 86.3 336./ 4.7
78 15.4 86.6 309./ 3.3
84 15.3 86.8 234./ 2.2
90 14.9 86.4 141./ 5.3
96 14.9 85.4 86./ 9.9
102 15.6 84.7 45./ 9.2
108 16.6 84.4 18./10.2
114 17.3 84.2 19./ 7.4
120 18.1 83.0 54./13.9
126 19.0 81.3 63./18.1


12z GFDL

[stormernie]

This will not have time to develop it should move inlad later today as the apparent LLC is trying to develop roughly 150 from the coast. However, it is moving westward at around 15 - 20 mph

[ronjon]

This will not have time to develop it should move inlad later today as the apparent LLC is trying to develop roughly 150 from the coast. However, it is moving westward at around 15 - 20 mph

Westward at 15-20 mph??? It looks to me from the VIA SAT that it is slowly drifting N-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SouthFloridawx]

This will not have time to develop it should move inlad later today as the apparent LLC is trying to develop roughly 150 from the coast. However, it is moving westward at around 15 - 20 mph

Westward at 15-20 mph??? It looks to me from the VIA SAT that it is slowly drifting N-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Agreed

[DESTRUCTION5]

This will not have time to develop it should move inlad later today as the apparent LLC is trying to develop roughly 150 from the coast. However, it is moving westward at around 15 - 20 mph

Westward at 15-20 mph??? It looks to me from the VIA SAT that it is slowly drifting N-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Agreed

What the heck are you guys looking at? I don't see anything drifting..Its clipping right along..

[ronjon]

I'm estimating the LLC near 12.5N-81W. If you put the VIS SAT at the highest loop speed you'll see the drift N-NW. Now, if this isn't the center then tell me where I'm wrong.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm estimating the LLC near 12.5N-81W. If you put the VIS SAT at the highest loop speed you'll see the drift N-NW. Now, if this isn't the center then tell me where I'm wrong.

Looks more like 82.5-12.5


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051116 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051116 1800 051117 0600 051117 1800 051118 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 81.2W 12.8N 83.0W 13.7N 84.6W 14.5N 86.1W
BAMM 11.9N 81.2W 12.7N 82.9W 13.5N 84.4W 14.1N 85.8W
A98E 11.9N 81.2W 12.4N 82.4W 12.5N 83.8W 12.6N 85.3W
LBAR 11.9N 81.2W 12.6N 82.9W 13.7N 84.5W 14.5N 86.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051118 1800 051119 1800 051120 1800 051121 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 87.1W 16.8N 87.9W 20.3N 86.2W 27.6N 73.0W
BAMM 14.5N 86.6W 14.7N 87.4W 14.8N 87.9W 14.3N 88.3W
A98E 13.0N 86.6W 12.6N 89.4W 12.5N 92.0W 12.5N 94.4W
LBAR 15.5N 86.8W 17.1N 87.2W 19.6N 85.7W 23.6N 80.7W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 34KTS 19KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 81.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 80.1W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 79.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models

11.9-81.2w.

[cycloneye]

Graphic of the 18:00z model run.