Tammy

[Air Force Met]

Thats cool AF. You know your stuff. When I was a kid my dad always looked at the rain totals in the Carib. after tropical waves passed. He believed higher the total more likely there would be development later on. Now fifty yrs later wow internet and stuff. We have really progressed. Noticed most people have flat butts nowadays! It is from sitting on our arses playing with these computers. Thank you for analysis.

We are light years of where we were when I started. People who are amatuers have no idea how easy they have it now...unless they have been weather watchers for 20+ years. When I was an amatuer weather enthusiast...back in my teens...there was no internet. There was no Weatehr Channel or 24 hour news coverage...none of that. You got what you got from the local news when it was on unless you were in the weather career field. When I got into the field...we still got grainy sat pics every hour or so...and really crude maps coming off the "AFDIGS" and some data coming in from the COMEDS.

It is amazing what can happen over the course of one's career. Young weather weenies today have no real idea (maybe a hint or clue) what it's like to love the weather and to not be able to have any data...ever....that doesn't come from ABCCBSNBC.

[jax]

Some of the models are still showing Tammy getting into the GOM. I would like to know what some of you think about this happaning?

I said yesterday this was an east coast storm still think it is... not going to make it into the gulf..

thwe models were seeing lower pressure there due to stan and they jumped the center and development into the gulf... there is an upper low in the northeast gulf that will not allolw this to get into the gulf, not to mention a large trough digging in behind the system to the east... the trough is coming in from the north east and moving southwest.. this would tell me a turn more northerly is the case and will send it further northward than the forecast is even calling for... already looks like the center has pulled offshore closer to the convection... SC NC get ready for heavy rains later in theweek..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

And that brings me to my other point...did I not say to you yesterday (not that you are doubting it...just need some verification here) that a system moving up the east coast (if that became the dominate center) would be more tropical than hybrid? I just say that because I think some people are selectively forgetting what I have said.

This from yesterday afternoon:

To me...right now...it's looking more like we will have two weaker systems, rather than one consolidated one that can get stronger. One will be hybrid-like and the other will be more tropical in nature.

And this from yesterday morning:
I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...

I just posted these to make sure people know what I have been saying...since people seem to forget.

yes... you are right again.... you are fantastic...

[bvigal]

lol

[ColinDelia]

Thats cool AF. You know your stuff. When I was a kid my dad always looked at the rain totals in the Carib. after tropical waves passed. He believed higher the total more likely there would be development later on. Now fifty yrs later wow internet and stuff. We have really progressed. Noticed most people have flat butts nowadays! It is from sitting on our arses playing with these computers. Thank you for analysis.

We are light years of where we were when I started. People who are amatuers have no idea how easy they have it now...unless they have been weather watchers for 20+ years. When I was an amatuer weather enthusiast...back in my teens...there was no internet. There was no Weatehr Channel or 24 hour news coverage...none of that. You got what you got from the local news when it was on unless you were in the weather career field. When I got into the field...we still got grainy sat pics every hour or so...and really crude maps coming off the "AFDIGS" and some data coming in from the COMEDS.

It is amazing what can happen over the course of one's career. Young weather weenies today have no real idea (maybe a hint or clue) what it's like to love the weather and to not be able to have any data...ever....that doesn't come from ABCCBSNBC.

All I had was my weather radio which, fortunately, carried the tropical weather outlook and coordinates for storms. Had to set my alarm to record coordinates, pressure and wind in the middle of the night because there was no easily obtainable record anywhere.

[sponger]

As for rain I can tell you we are getting buried here in N Florida. On and off for 2 days and really dumped alot last night in St Augustine. Jacksonville has fared a little better.

[skysummit]

Looking at radar, she looks to be heading north or NNE since 8:30am EDT.

[Skeetergirl]

Young weather weenies today have no real idea (maybe a hint or clue) what it's like to love the weather and to not be able to have any data...ever....that doesn't come from ABCCBSNBC.

Wow... I'm a "weather weenie" but not so youny! Seriously, just want to say thanks for all the great opinions we are blessed to have at our finger tips here.

[skysummit]

Looking at radar, she looks to be heading north or NNE since 8:30am EDT.

Look at my image...you can see where she was (the "NOW"), and where she is now.
http://www.skysummit.bravehost.com/

[Air Force Met]

All I had was my weather radio which, fortunately, carried the tropical weather outlook and coordinates for storms. Had to set my alarm to record coordinates, pressure and wind in the middle of the night because there was no easily obtainable record anywhere.

Yes...I did have that...and I have no idea HOW I forgot about it. Why?

Because
1) The antennae was broke off and I had a close hanger shoved into the slot and....the real reason....
2) I lived just on the edge of the range of the station in Alvin. I literally had to climb a tree in my back yard (a big china-berry tree) and turn around and around until I got very fuzzy reception.

It was truly sight to behold.

[Suncat]

I'm watching this new system carefully. Here in central NC, we are in the middle of a drought and this afternoon I will be going to a planning meeting to discuss water conservation measures. Any ideas as to how much rain we might be getting from Tammy this weekend? At this point, any measurable amount will be welcome!

[Stormcenter]

Some of the models are still showing Tammy getting into the GOM. I would like to know what some of you think about this happaning?

I said yesterday this was an east coast storm still think it is... not going to make it into the gulf..

thwe models were seeing lower pressure there due to stan and they jumped the center and development into the gulf... there is an upper low in the northeast gulf that will not allolw this to get into the gulf, not to mention a large trough digging in behind the system to the east... the trough is coming in from the north east and moving southwest.. this would tell me a turn more northerly is the case and will send it further northward than the forecast is even calling for... already looks like the center has pulled offshore closer to the convection... SC NC get ready for heavy rains later in theweek..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

And that brings me to my other point...did I not say to you yesterday (not that you are doubting it...just need some verification here) that a system moving up the east coast (if that became the dominate center) would be more tropical than hybrid? I just say that because I think some people are selectively forgetting what I have said.

This from yesterday afternoon:

To me...right now...it's looking more like we will have two weaker systems, rather than one consolidated one that can get stronger. One will be hybrid-like and the other will be more tropical in nature.

And this from yesterday morning:
I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...

I just posted these to make sure people know what I have been saying...since people seem to forget.

yes... you are right again.... you are fantastic...

Do I detect a "bit" of sacasm in that reply?

[cjrciadt]

[ronjon]

So Air Force Met, do you still think a second low will develop in the GOM? The global models have been pretty consistent in trying to form something in the Gulf. I see the ULL in the NE Gulf which looks to me to be slowly drifting to the west. There is also this huge blob of convection over the Yucatan Straits that looks to be moving NE. Looks like the elements are still in place for something to develop with a baroclinic boost from the trough forecast to amplify in the central Gulf later this week.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Air Force Met]

So Air Force Met, do you still think a second low will develop in the GOM? The global models have been pretty consistent in trying to form something in the Gulf. I see the ULL in the NE Gulf which looks to me to be slowly drifting to the west. There is also this huge blob of convection over the Yucatan Straits that looks to be moving NE. Looks like the elements are still in place for something to develop with a baroclinic boost from the trough forecast to amplify in the central Gulf later this week.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks to me like the second low may actually be coming from the Yucatan area. There's something going on down there with 1004-1005 mb pressures. That is the real thing to watch.

[skysummit]

So Air Force Met, do you still think a second low will develop in the GOM? The global models have been pretty consistent in trying to form something in the Gulf. I see the ULL in the NE Gulf which looks to me to be slowly drifting to the west. There is also this huge blob of convection over the Yucatan Straits that looks to be moving NE. Looks like the elements are still in place for something to develop with a baroclinic boost from the trough forecast to amplify in the central Gulf later this week.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks to me like the second low may actually be coming from the Yucatan area. There's something going on down there with 1004-1005 mb pressures. That is the real thing to watch.

It is looking really nice on visible. Look at that fanning affect on the eastern edge.

[cinlfla]

Looks to me like the second low may actually be coming from the Yucatan area. There's something going on down there with 1004-1005 mb pressures. That is the real thing to watch.

I agree I have been watching this most of the morning and in IMO it looks better then Tammy right now but I am a novice so what do I know

[KatDaddy]

Moved by KatDaddy

[cycloneye]

Ok folks this thread is about Tammy only.For comments about the Yucatan area please go to What's this thread.

[Amanzi]

Some of the models are still showing Tammy getting into the GOM. I would like to know what some of you think about this happaning?

I said yesterday this was an east coast storm still think it is... not going to make it into the gulf..

thwe models were seeing lower pressure there due to stan and they jumped the center and development into the gulf... there is an upper low in the northeast gulf that will not allolw this to get into the gulf, not to mention a large trough digging in behind the system to the east... the trough is coming in from the north east and moving southwest.. this would tell me a turn more northerly is the case and will send it further northward than the forecast is even calling for... already looks like the center has pulled offshore closer to the convection... SC NC get ready for heavy rains later in theweek..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

And that brings me to my other point...did I not say to you yesterday (not that you are doubting it...just need some verification here) that a system moving up the east coast (if that became the dominate center) would be more tropical than hybrid? I just say that because I think some people are selectively forgetting what I have said.

This from yesterday afternoon:

To me...right now...it's looking more like we will have two weaker systems, rather than one consolidated one that can get stronger. One will be hybrid-like and the other will be more tropical in nature.

And this from yesterday morning:
I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...

I just posted these to make sure people know what I have been saying...since people seem to forget.

yes... you are right again.... you are fantastic...

Do I detect a "bit" of sacasm in that reply?

Lets not ge nit-Picky!

[jasons2k]

Looking at GRLevel3 it looks like the center has reformed a bit west, closer to the coast, just offshore the Volusia/Seminole county line.