Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[johngaltfla]

Boy, oh Boy. This is like Mother Nature calling the southeast U.S. a bad dog and whipping us repeatedly.

Unbelievable.

[cycloneye]

31/2345 UTC 8.8N 23.6W T1.0/1.0 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

[SouthFloridawx]

[Vortex]

This appears to be a classic Cape Verde system. The 2350 UTC imagery shows improved organization. It has all the ingredients to become a significant storm at the height of the Cape Verde season. More importantly, the synoptic forecast the next week-10 days shows no reason this system should not track to and thru the islands and continue generally wnw. I fear this could be a classic Cape Verde storm with the "potential" of affecting many people....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[cjrciadt]

We're going to have 93L at the looks of the wave leaving Africa.

[HouTXmetro]

*Views models and passes out

[Steve H.]

I agree. That thing coming off Africa is a Monster.

[Hyperstorm]

I find that this is one of the most difficult systems to classify that I've seen.

It is very unclear at this point if it is TRULY a tropical wave. There wasn't much signs of this feature being a tropical wave as it moved off the coast. It was more of a squall line system that then dissipated over the waters. This looks more like a vortex of low pressure that developed near the southern edge of the squall line. Even the TAFB people are having trouble classifying this as a tropical wave. To me, the actual tropical wave is still inland and about to move offshore. These systems tend to create the squall lines, thus they follow it. What's interesting is that the system about to move offshore (tropical wave) has burst and separated from this 92L.

I mention this because depending on what it is, depends the chances of development. If it is truly a tropical wave, climatology suggests that it has more potential. If it is just associated with what was the squall line, it could have more trouble sustaining itself based on the past history of those types of systems.

Let's see how this transpires...

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm I find interesting that they mention it at the TWO but no mention at TWD.What is going on there?

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm I find interesting that they mention it at the TWO but no mention at TWD.What is going on there?

It is very difficult to decipher that.

The TWD is done by TAFB, so they are the "official" source for identifying systems in the Atlantic as either tropical waves, lows, etc...

Their lack of mention tells me that they are also having trouble classifying this feature for the simple reason that I talked to you about...That it was associated with a tropical squall line.

It is possible that they end up classifying this feature as a tropical wave tomorrow, just to show coordination with the NHC and give it continuity...

[Brent]

This appears to be a classic Cape Verde system. The 2350 UTC imagery shows improved organization. It has all the ingredients to become a significant storm at the height of the Cape Verde season. More importantly, the synoptic forecast the next week-10 days shows no reason this system should not track to and thru the islands and continue generally wnw. I fear this could be a classic Cape Verde storm with the "potential" of affecting many people....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

I agree...

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.


10:30 PM TWO.

[HURAKAN]

MARIA AND NATE?!? STICK AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS AND YOU WILL FIND OUT!!!!!

[abajan]

Continues to look quite healthy this morning:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg

Hope it's a fish...

[cycloneye]

SAT Imagery


Above is a panoramic view of 92L but also 91L soon to be TD14 and TD Lee.Also you can see what is in the pipe inside Africa.

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm if this is a squall line I think it is the better ones ever that I haved seen as normally those squall lines weaken after they hit the water but this system has passed 30w already.How do you see 92L today?

Finnally they mention it at the TWD.

A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N25W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THE LOW CENTER IS WELL TO THE E OF THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 9.5N32.5W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 5.5N-11N BETWEEN 30W-34.5W.


8 AM Discussion

[Patrick99]

I hope not South Florida

I second this. I just bought food again since the last hurricane spoiled all of it and I don't want another

I'm not going to make a call on any one system, but I fear the dropping of "the other shoe."

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye,

As I mentioned earlier, the system is NO longer a squall line, but developed from one. It developed a vortex of low pressure near the southern edge of the squall line as the squall line itself dissipated. This is an extract from the 205 TWD from TAFB:

896
AXNT20 KNHC 010532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
01/0300 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N
49.1W MOVING NNE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC. AN UPPER LOW IS W OF LEE AND
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE W SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM.
THUS...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

A BROAD 1009 MB TROPICAL ATLC SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
17N42W MOVING WNW 10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE W IS
PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 19N40W-22N45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 31/1800 UTC AND AT
01/0000 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 9N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS
AN ELONGATED E/W LOW WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL TO THE W OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN THE ITCZ.

As you can see, it is NOT a tropical wave. Rather, it is a low that developed along the ITCZ (squall line that moved offshore). I mentioned to you earlier that these systems have trouble developing for some reason. They are mentioned by meteorologists, yes, but they usually don't develop. Nearly 100% of the times they just continue westward along the ITCZ and end up in South America.

I really don't see this developing in the near future based on the persistence of these types of disturbances in the past. Development, IF ANY, will be very slow...

[cycloneye]

There is easterly shear as the low is removed to the east of the convection.If you look at the models some have a tropical storm or even a hurricane just east of the Lesser Antilles.Let's see what occurs with this in the next few days.

[x-y-no]

Here's the 7-day frame of last night's 0zEuropean:



92L is just southwest of Puerto Rico.

The system off the Florida coast is the hinted-at homebrew, which would likely drift N or NE in this setup.