H.Emily Advisorys

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z THU JUL 14 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE
PARAGUANA PENINSULA.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

[yoda]

This ought to have a good discussion.. looking forward to it!

[AnthonyC]

This thing has exploded the past three, four hours...barometric pressure went from 1003 mb this early afternoon...to 992 mb this early evening. Will Emily continue to strengthen at this speed? Will she be another major hurricane? I say Emily becomes a category 5 hurricane within two days and eventually impacts the US as a category 2.

Anthony

[Swimdude]

Now, um, that's what we refer to as "bombing", correct? Because I mean... @#$%! 60 to 90 mph... In 3 hours?

[micktooth]

Looks like Em is on the move. Do you all agree with "west" movement? Looks to be more WNW to me.

[dhweather]

Now, um, that's what we refer to as "bombing", correct? Because I mean... @#$%! 60 to 90 mph... In 3 hours?

Dude, that's just a 50% increase in three hours.

[texasheat]

amazing... i expect the models to turn more north soon also.. some have her not even hitting the yucatan. how is she still moving west thought..

[Skywatch_NC]

Looks like Em is on the move. Do you all agree with "west" movement? Looks to be more WNW to me.

Does to me, too

[Scorpion]

Omg if that keeps up there could potentially be a Cat 4/5 headed for Cozumel .

[Brent]

Looks like Em is on the move. Do you all agree with "west" movement? Looks to be more WNW to me.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

So it's still west even though it's gaining latitude.

Track is slightly closer to Cancun and Cozumel now.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE
PARAGUANA PENINSULA.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.9 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Mac]

I have a feeling she is going to clip the tip of the Yucatan, but not nearly as far south as the forecast track projects. I am thinking she'll just clip the tip of the Yucatan and end up being a threat from Corpus to Houston.

[johngaltfla]

Now, um, that's what we refer to as "bombing", correct? Because I mean... @#$%! 60 to 90 mph... In 3 hours?

Dude, that's just a 50% increase in three hours.

So, at this pace, 200 mph by Jamaica? (Just kidding)

But wow. Imagine if this storm misses major land masses and sneaks through the Yucatan Channel unscathed.

And it's only July.

[gkrangers]

Well 275 will gain lattitude slowly. Best to use the center fixes for movement and not the sattellite or infrared, becuase the blossoming convection can be decieving in regards to movement.

[FritzPaul]

This ought to have a good discussion.. looking forward to it!

Another situation bordering on insane.

[Brent]

I have a feeling she is going to clip the tip of the Yucatan, but not nearly as far south as the forecast track projects. I am thinking she'll just clip the tip of the Yucatan and end up being a threat from Corpus to Houston.

It won't have to go much north of the track to do that... remember 200 mile errors at Day 3, 250 miles at Day 4.

[HURAKAN]

Surprising, 90 mph!!!

[clfenwi]

The NHC doesn't control the warnings for those islands. The governments are responsible.

Yeah, but they do advise... and NHC at 2 was saying "Emily not strengthening" and that sentiment was reiterated in the 5 PM advisory...

[gkrangers]

The NHC doesn't control the warnings for those islands. The governments are responsible.

Yeah, but they do advise... and NHC at 2 was saying "Emily not strengthening" and that sentiment was reiterated in the 5 PM advisory...

Well it wasn't strengthening at the time...