Daily tropical updates and advisories

#81 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:34 am

Garrett the tropical updates are to inform about what is going on in the whole atlantic basin or viseversa if all is quiet.It is a general Idea about what the atlantic looks like but when the advisories come then the forecasters have to describe all the elements that will happen with a system in particular and be more a long post.

#82 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 14, 2003 8:48 am

I know. I was just complimenting how things were done. You don't just say "No tropical development is expected". You highlight the areas that are still features.

Stormsfury · #83 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Jun 14, 2003 3:30 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
Saturday, June 14th, 2003 - 5 pm EDT

An area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean sea continues to organize and indications are that a surface low are developing ... a tropical depression is likely in the next 24 to 36 hours and tropical storm formation is possible within 48 hours ...

The remnants of Tropical Depression #2 continue westward around 15kts with an excellent wave presentation evident and a low-level vorticity near Isla Blanquilla ... regeneration is not expected at this time ...

Yet another wave located in the Central Atlantic roughly between 40ºW and 45ºW has a more well-defined circulation ... however, it is at low level latitude in relation to the ITCZ ... development is not expected at this time ...

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected thru Sunday....

#84 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jun 15, 2003 9:05 am

Tropical Update-6/15/03 8:30am vbhoutex

This morning our possible TD #3 is struggling a little to get it's act together. There is a definite mid-level circulation near LAT 17.5N,
Long. 81W, but no definite LLC is evident in Satellite imagery this AM. Currently convection is beginning to fire nearly over and to the S of the mid level CC so we still have a ball game while this system continues to fight to develop. If Recon is not cancelled later today we will know for sure whether we still just have an elongated low pressure area or a TD in it's formative stages.

With diffluent shear over the system, conditions, although not ideal for strengthening, are not bad for it as this type of diffluent flow will actually help vent the system. The ULL to it's west is a possible inhibitive factor, but not a major player ATT. With an upper level ridge forecast to build over the W Caribbean conditions should begin to improve even more. Even though things don't look real strong right now, by later today or tomorrow we should see this system really begin to get it's act together if it is going to.

As is always the case the key to where this system will go is directly related to how strong it becomes (or how weak it stays) over the
next 48 hours or so. If it intensifies, it will feel more of the mid level weakness in the ridge to it's north, and actually begin to come north. If it stays weak, it may wander around a little to the south while actually drifting northwest a little in the short term.

With a trough expected to develop over Texas and the Western part of the Gulf of Mexico over the next 2-3 days, if the system is a tropical cyclone by then, particularly if it has reached Tropical storm strength, then it should be far enough north to to be picked up by the trough and driven in a NNE and then NE direction somewhere across Florida. If the system doesn't strengthen it will more than likely either drift west into Central America/Old Mexico or just lollygag around in the Caribbean for a while.

As always we will continue to watch this system closely and post updates as necessary,

Stormsfury · #85 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jun 15, 2003 10:13 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
Issued: Sunday, June 15th, 2003
11 am EDT

An area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean Sea is beginning to generate new convection after subsiding during the overnight hours ... Pressures in the area as still low (roughly around 1008mb) and conditions are marginally favorable for development ... however, development is likely to be gradual .. and a tropical depression formation is possible within the next 24 hours ...

The remnants of TD #2 are located roughly 65ºW and show no signs of redevelopment ... Cloudiness and showers continue with a well-defined wave around 45º-50ºW imbedded within the ITCZ .. development is not expected ...

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected thru Monday ...

SF

Stormsfury · #86 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jun 15, 2003 3:41 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
Sunday, June 15th, 2003
Issued: 5 pm EDT

An area of disturbed weather continues in the SW Caribbean Sea. Pressures in the area are still fairly low (roughly around 1008mb). The system has not become better organized today and the system is experiencing southerly shear. Development if any, will be slow...

A wave, partly the remnants of TD #2 are expected to spread showers across Puerto Rico in the next 24 hours and satellite imagery suggest the wave is splitting into 2 pieces with the northern end moving faster (on the Atlantic's side).. Development is not anticipated...

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected thru Monday.

SF

#87 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 1:04 am

Tropical Weather Outlook 1AM July 16, 2003 vbhoutex

The disturbed area in the NW Caribbean Sea continues to fire convection along the Honduras/Nicaraguan coast near a 1009mb low just off the coast of Honduras near 16N, 84W. The Tropical Wave associated with this low, which is E of the wave axis is currently located in a N-S position along 86W moving wnw at about 10mph. But with moderate upper lever southerly shear still present it is not organizing and is orienting the convection in a linear N-W pattern all the way from E Nicaragua N to S Florida. With plenty of mid and upper level moisture evident in the WV loops and the movement of this moisture into a N-S pattern it looks like W Cuba and much of the peninsula of FL may be in for a wet week. This disturbance is not expected to develop ATT but may be moving into a slightly more favorable area for development in the next day or two so the Storm2k forecast team will continue to closely monitor it.

A second tropical wave is located in the Central Caribbean and extends from Lake Maracaibo on the S NE over the E tip of Hispaniola and into the Atlantic. This wave has become increasingly elongated and appears to be splitting in two with the area S of 20N continuing W at 10-15kt. while the area N of 20N is moving NW at 10-15 kt. Convection with this wave, at least the N portion over E Hispaniola and PR has been increasing over the last few hours. but no development is expected ATT.

A TW is embedded In the ITCZ about halfway between Africa and the South American coast. Conditions aren't favorable for development in this area.

Elsewhere in the Tropics no Tropical Cyclone formation is expected through Tuesday.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 9:07 pm

Tropical weather outlook=10:15 PM EDT june 16 2003

There are no areas of concern tonight in the whole basin that will develop into a tropical cyclone.There are some areas that are being watched by the storm2k forecasters such as the western caribbean area and a tropical wave in the atlantic east of the windwards but conditions are not favorable for development.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru wendsday

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) storm2k forecaster

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 8:58 pm

Tropical weather outlook 10:00 PM EDT June 17 2003

A tropical wave located at the penninsula of Yucatan is emerging into the Bay of Campeche.Development if any will be slow to happen.

A tropical wave is affecting the lesser antilles woth scattered showers but shear is strong and no tropical development is expected.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru thursday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#90 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 10:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical weather outlook 10:00 PM EDT June 17 2003

A tropical wave located at the penninsula of Yucatan is emerging into the Bay of Campeche.Development if any will be slow to happen.

A tropical wave is affecting the lesser antilles woth scattered showers but shear is strong and no tropical development is expected.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru thursday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

has been uploaded by VB.

#91 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 4:11 am

5am tropical update for Wednesday is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#92 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 12:09 pm

vbhoutex wrote:11am tropical update for Wednesday is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

ColdFront77 · #93 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 2:51 pm

The trough to the Bay of Campeche low is not at the surface. The surface cold front was taken off surface weather maps; actually moved northeastward and weakened.

#94 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 2:56 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:The trough to the Bay of Campeche low is not at the surface. The surface cold front was taken off surface weather maps; actually moved northeastward and weakened.

You are right. It is not at the surface now. And we sent the shortwave to you too!!! :lol:

Get the oars ready!!!

Rainband · #95 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 3:23 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:The trough to the Bay of Campeche low is not at the surface. The surface cold front was taken off surface weather maps; actually moved northeastward and weakened.

You are right. It is not at the surface now. And we sent the shortwave to you too!!! Get the oars ready!!!

I have the boat ready :lol:

#96 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 18, 2003 4:45 pm

Tropical weather outlook 5:30 PM EDT June 18 2003

A tropical wave located in the bay of campeche is moving slowly WNW and convection has increased some this afternoon.A weak low pressure is with the wave and upper conditions are somewhat favorable for some development.The storm2k forecasters are watching this system and more information will be provided here.

A tropical wave located in the eastern caribbean is spreading showers thru the lesser antilles as it moves west 10-15 kts but no development is expected.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru friday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#97 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 19, 2003 7:34 am

7:15am tropical update for thursday is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 19, 2003 10:21 am

Tropical weather outlook 11:00 AM EDT June 19 2003

A tropical wave located in the SW GOM is drifting NW.Showers haved increased but development if any will be slow to occur.

A tropical wave located in the eastern caribbean is spreading some showers to Puerto Rico but no development is expected as upper winds are unfavorable.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru friday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#99 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 19, 2003 5:14 pm

5pm tropical update for Wednesday is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#100 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jun 19, 2003 5:18 pm

May I make a suggestion... can you copy and paste the discussion here like Luis does. It makes it so much easier to read and discuss if it is here on this forum. That is... only if it doesn't take too much time. Just a suggestion... take it for what it is worth.

Daily tropical updates and advisories

Who is online