96L for Caribbean System

[Ivanhater]

whatever path it takes, she has come a long way today, going from just a complete mess earlier to actually taking shape somewhat...but i will leave the technical stuff to the professional meteorologist which after college ill be...hopefully

[Derek Ortt]

if this develops, I tend to go for the more northerly track with this system, bringing this into E Texas. The ridging based upon model runs is not at all impressive and could retreat just before any landfall

[tw861]

all things seem a go for this, only thing i can think of that would hinder this would be land if it took a more westward path

I am in agreement with that statement.

Hmm...It sounds like you are getting ready to climb on the bandwagon.

[wxman57]

if this develops, I tend to go for the more northerly track with this system, bringing this into E Texas. The ridging based upon model runs is not at all impressive and could retreat just before any landfall

It's going to come down to when/where any LLC forms. The later it forms, the farther south ultimate landfall will be. Also, the farther south it forms, the farther south landfall will be. I wouldn't mind seeing it here in Houston. Haven't seen a tropical system here in many years.

[Anonymous]

I would think the middle Texas coast, as a hurricane of some kind of intensity, however since rapid deepening is impossible to predict, who knows. But that is my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

wx,

if it coems to houston, probably from a more northerly center, which is what the guidance indicates where the center will form <b>IF</b> one even does form, it likely wont be more than a moderate tropical storm the way things look now

barring the second coming of Claudette from 1979 or Allison, this could give you some good flood relief, without any major damage

[tw861]

I would think the middle Texas coast, as a hurricane of some kind of intensity, however since rapid deepening is impossible to predict, who knows. But that is my opinion.

Middle Texas coast is good for me but I would like to see it making a turn to the north or northeast about the time of landfall if it's there.

Show me the rain baby ! 100 degress at Hooks airport (about 2 miles from my house) at 5pm

[southerngale]

wx,

if it coems to houston, probably from a more northerly center, which is what the guidance indicates where the center will form <b>IF</b> one even does form, it likely wont be more than a moderate tropical storm the way things look now

barring the second coming of Claudette from 1979 or Allison, this could give you some good flood relief, without any major damage

You mean drought relief? Yes...please send it here as a TS or even a wave, with plenty of rain, but not too much. I wish I could just punch in my order and it would be delivered. lol

[vbhoutex]

You had to mention C and A didn't you Derek!!!

I don't know whether I ate something bad or if my "hurricane gut" is talking, but I am becoming increasingly concerned that this system could be more than we are bargaining for at this point. Like I said, it is a gut feeling, but a lot of parameters seem to be coming together that could produce, imo, more than a moderate TS. I hope I just ate something that isn't agreeing with me!!!

[southerngale]

"Hello, welcome to McCanes, would you like rain with that order?"

[Roxy]

I would think the middle Texas coast, as a hurricane of some kind of intensity, however since rapid deepening is impossible to predict, who knows. But that is my opinion.

Middle Texas coast is good for me but I would like to see it making a turn to the north or northeast about the time of landfall if it's there.

Show me the rain baby ! 100 degress at Hooks airport (about 2 miles from my house) at 5pm

104 here in Clear Lake, the grass is dying right before my eyes. I hope it becomes a tropical storm, and gets us really wet.

[Brent]

Be careful what you wish for.

[Roxy]

Be careful what you wish for.

I just realized I described Allison....we don't want another Allison.

[Brent]

Be careful what you wish for.

I just realized I described Allison....we don't want another Allison.

You probably need that much rain to get caught up.

[dhweather]

Be careful what you wish for.

I just realized I described Allison....we don't want another Allison.

You probably need that much rain to get caught up.

I had TWC on for a minute this morning, they had numbers up for
the rainfall deficits in SE TX/SW LA - as much as 17" short on the year.

A very wet TS isn't going to be good for them - as hard as the ground
is, it'll all runoff and not soak in well at all.

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 82.7 310./ 8.0
6 18.2 83.6 290./ 9.4
12 18.4 84.8 279./11.5
18 18.9 86.0 290./12.3
24 19.5 87.3 297./13.4
30 19.7 88.1 284./ 8.3
36 20.2 89.4 292./13.7
42 20.8 90.6 295./11.7
48 21.5 90.9 334./ 7.6
54 22.1 91.6 312./ 9.1
60 23.3 92.4 325./13.7
66 24.6 93.2 331./15.5
72 26.0 93.4 352./13.5
78 26.9 93.8 338./10.2
84 28.4 93.7 2./15.0
90 29.6 93.2 24./12.1
96 30.9 92.3 34./15.2
102 31.6 91.6 41./ 9.6
108 32.3 91.2 34./ 7.2
114 32.7 90.6 55./ 6.6
120 32.8 89.3 84./11.1
126 32.9 88.8 81./ 4.4



I know that many dont like this GFDL model but I only post this for information to the members.It has whatever is the system when it gets into the gulf making landfall just west of New Orleans.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 0000 050703 1200 050704 0000 050704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 86.6W 19.7N 88.5W 21.1N 90.6W
BAMM 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 86.6W 19.7N 88.5W 21.0N 90.5W
A98E 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 87.0W 19.7N 88.9W 21.5N 90.6W
LBAR 17.8N 84.9W 18.7N 86.9W 20.1N 89.0W 21.8N 91.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 0000 050706 0000 050707 0000 050708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 92.5W 25.8N 95.2W 28.0N 96.3W 30.2N 95.5W
BAMM 22.6N 92.4W 25.2N 95.8W 27.4N 98.2W 29.0N 99.9W
A98E 23.9N 92.4W 27.6N 95.9W 30.6N 96.5W 33.8N 90.3W
LBAR 23.6N 92.6W 27.6N 94.3W 30.4N 92.1W 31.7N 86.8W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 68KTS 68KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 82.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[senorpepr]

Invest (NA / 96L) (03/0000Z)
Position: 17.8°N 84.9°W (190 miles NE from La Ceiba, Honduras)
Movement: WNW at 13 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1009 mb / 29.8''
Dvorak Est: Too Weak


...and before someone freaks out and says it...

Although the SHIP model indicates a hurricane in 72 hours, remember that this model doesn't account for land. While looking at the Decay-SHIP, you'll see it reaching TS strength in 48 hours and the highest it reaches through 120 hours is 50kt at 72 hour point.

[Ivanhater]

is it just me or have they shifted east?

[Hurricanehink]

is it just me or have they shifted east?

Looks like it. Look out TX/LA border.