BOC/Yucatan

#81 Postby **loon** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:32 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Wow that interesting............I have 2 posts but posted once. Talk about fat fingering

Matt we truely appreciate your posts. There are many oldtimers here and we understand your excitement. Thats what make Storm2k real.

even stranger is that you are stuck on 666 posts....

#82 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:38 pm

Creepy

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #83 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:19 pm

Thanks katdaddy...The latest shows that the shear has decreased even more. In there is a strong Upper level high over the system. Shear decreasing by 20 knots across a good part of the gulf now. Shear to the north of 26 is down to 15 to 20 knots from the earlier 40 knots. Trough weaking or lefting.

Also the trough is the line between the dry air/Moist air. Which this system is with an a area of moist air. This system is also forming convection near its surface circ. Which was southeast of the convection that formed a few hours ago. Upper level high seems to be in place.

Guest · #84 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:23 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Thanks katdaddy...The latest shows that the shear has decreased even more. In there is a strong Upper level high over the system. Shear decreasing by 20 knots across a good part of the gulf now. Shear to the north of 26 is down to 15 to 20 knots from the earlier 40 knots. Trough weaking or lefting. I just got home going to do more research on this system.

Matt, looks like the pots a stewing down there in the BOC, whats your take on where it may go?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #85 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:31 pm

The models show a west-northwestward track. There seems to be a weakness over the central midwest over the next 36 hours that could help it turn more northwestward. Most likely south of Texas.

mobilebay · #86 Postby **mobilebay** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:32 pm

Also the latest GFS shows a low developing just offshore Destin/Pesacola area in about 36 hours. I know the GFS is spinning up a lot of these lows lately but has maintained a pretty strong vortex at 850 MB for several runs now with this system. Something worth watching anyway.

this is the 00Z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_036l.gif

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #87 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:35 pm

Here is the 950 millibar level of the Gfs 18z. You can clearly see the low get stronger/More oreganized. Then move to the west-northwest then northwest into Mexico.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

#88 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:06 am

Come on wxman57 I need that GARP

southerngale · #89 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:19 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Center of low/mid level circulation near 19/92.6 or just offshore in the extreme southern BOC. Movement is to the west-northwest about 10 mph.

I think that there is a pretty good chance that this system will slowly develop. However, the ridge of high pressure over Texas is still quite strong and should keep any potential tropical cyclone well to the south of Texas likely moving inland near Tampico in less than 48 hours.

Unfortunately for rain starved Texas and Louisiana, little hope this week for any drought busting rainfall.

Looks like you made a great call yesterday! Could you call for us some rain in Beaumont now, please?

BOC/Yucatan

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