Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[FLpanhandle91]

This run might be a Caribbean cruiser.

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS much weaker through 126 Hours

https://i.imgur.com/E3p5uFX.gif

Poof! Can't ever take this model serious lol.

I think it's just forming later..

Na its gone from a bonified TC to nothing.

[tomatkins]

Extending to 240 hours of the Euro ensembles, the concern mounts bigtime. It will be all about how the ridge will be.

https://i.imgur.com/Geg7UsP.jpg

It seems like Idalia departing the scene rather than sitting around creating a weakness in the ridge could be the defining factor here. That in turn seems to have been affected by Franklin still sticking around.

[IcyTundra]

The vorticity is still there on the 12Z GFS wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing if it stayed weak. Can’t really trust the GFS right now though.

[captainbarbossa19]

The vorticity is still there on the 12Z GFS wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing if it stayed weak. Can’t really trust the GFS right now though.

Yep. Approaching the islands and starting to intensify now much further south.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs takes it forever to get going, but does as it gets closer to the Caribbean Friday/Saturday. 12cmc still develops it Wednesday. Both models are still running.

[SFLcane]

The vorticity is still there on the 12Z GFS wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing if it stayed weak. Can’t really trust the GFS right now though.

Yep. Approaching the islands and starting to intensify now much further south.

Nope its gone horrible consistency with this model this season. If the ecmwf poofs next then it was likely a false alarm hopefully.

[IcyTundra]

Not buying the GFS but most of the 12Z runs are coming in a little weaker just saying.

[captainbarbossa19]

The vorticity is still there on the 12Z GFS wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing if it stayed weak. Can’t really trust the GFS right now though.

Yep. Approaching the islands and starting to intensify now much further south.

Nope its gone horrible consistency with this model this season. If the ecmwf poofs next then it was likely a false alarm hopefully.

Unlikely the Euro is going to poof it imo. It has been consistent showing development each run and the wave is trackable already. Also, it is not the only model showing development.

[Canelaw99]

Um….S FL says “no, thank you!”

Last 2 runs of the gfs…

https://i.postimg.cc/85TYgLHm/IMG-7563.gif

[SFLcane]

[captainbarbossa19]

Not bad

[chris_fit]

https://i.postimg.cc/vZF5N5NY/ccvv.png

Weakness over/E of FL on that run, should scoop it up. Just one run though.

[Woofde]

That's alarming, but that would be on September 10th. That's as peak season as it gets.

[SFLcane]

Trash model...just ridiculous to be frank

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1697644602893774940

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697643731833282606




I would not trust the GFS, the model is an absolute inconsistent mess right now. Imo it seems like it is handling the strong el nino/record warm atl combo worse than other models atm. I'd still expect development of this upcoming wave.

[IcyTundra]

GEFS is coming in weaker and further south. I would take it with a grain of salt considering it is derived from the GFS. Let’s see what the Euro and EPS does.

[Category5Kaiju]

I can't say that I'm surprised by that latest GFS run

[GCANE]

Will be interesting to see how this evolves with respect to El Nino.
This biggest part of that would be the timing of any TC's that would form in the EPAC.

[aspen]

12z ICON and CMC still show development into a long-tracking hurricane like in previous runs.

My best guess is that the GFS is struggling with the El Niño and favoring rising motion outside of the Atlantic when it’s been shown that the Atlantic is perfectly capable of producing storms.