Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[LarryWx]

12z GFS is a stretch... that looks like an August-type system, not something you'd see in November.

I'd normally agree with you, especially considering it is the GFS. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss it.

Model consensus is forecasting 500 mb heights that are as high as 2.5 SD above the mean for early November in the NE US Wednesday night. That is equivalent to saying 500 mb hts that are at the 99% percentile meaning hts that high or higher in early November there happen only 1% of the time.

With that strong of a high to the north, the SW Atlantic/Bahamas/SE US is in a highly unusual pattern for early November as regards tropical potential. With only 8 TCs having formed since 1851 in the SW Atlantic Nov 1-10 (see link below) and considering this highly anomalous pattern, there's not much historical track data/climo to utilize to predict what will happen. So even though none of those 8 SW Atlantic originating TCs hit the US, that doesn't mean much in this very unusual pattern:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png

If we incorporate the current SW Atlantic SSTs, we get even further from normal early Nov tropical potential. They're currently 28 to 29 C (82-84 F), which is ~1C/2F warmer than the normal and near the normal for mid October (normal found here):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/SST/AL_10 ... 0_RSST.gif

Along with this very strong H5 ridge to the north and warm SSTAs, 200 mb wind speeds are forecasted to plunge well below normal early to mid next week in the SW Atlantic. So, shear may become unusually light then.

Considering all of the above, the NHC has quite a challenge and there will be lots for us to discuss over the coming days.

[SFLcane]

Come again GFS??

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/PaulFox13/status/1588591863690596352

[gatorcane]

That is some ridge over the Western Atlantic and Carolinas on the 12Z Euro. It turns the system west once north of Hispaniola and beelines it through South Florida into the Gulf as if it were August or September.

[BobHarlem]

Important key messages from NHC.

https://i.imgur.com/3qahzYJ.jpg

Have they ever issued key messages just for an outlook tagged system before?

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS is a stretch... that looks like an August-type system, not something you'd see in November.

I'd normally agree with you, especially considering it is the GFS. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss it.

Model consensus is forecasting 500 mb heights that are as high as 2.5 SD above the mean for early November in the NE US Wednesday night. That is equivalent to saying 500 mb hts that are at the 99% percentile meaning hts that high or higher in early November there happen only 1% of the time.

With that strong of a high to the north, the SW Atlantic/Bahamas/SE US is in a highly unusual pattern for early November as regards tropical potential. With only 8 TCs having formed since 1851 in the SW Atlantic Nov 1-10 (see link below) and considering this highly anomalous pattern, there's not much historical track data/climo to utilize to predict what will happen. So even though none of those 8 SW Atlantic originating TCs hit the US, that doesn't mean much in this very unusual pattern:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png

If we incorporate the current SW Atlantic SSTs, we get even further from normal early Nov tropical potential. They're currently 28 to 29 C (82-84 F), which is ~1C/2F warmer than the normal and near the normal for mid October (normal found here):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/SST/AL_10 ... 0_RSST.gif

Along with this very strong H5 ridge to the north and warm SSTAs, 200 mb wind speeds are forecasted to plunge well below normal early to mid next week in the SW Atlantic. So, shear may become unusually light then.

Considering all of the above, the NHC has quite a challenge and there will be lots for us to discuss over the coming days.

I'd have to agree with you Larry. Also extremely well-thought out, detailed analysis!

The bottom line is that the predicted pattern is very unusual for this time of year, and because of this weirdness, we may very well see a storm behavior that we've never seen before. Who knows. Lenny happened. Kate (1985) happened. The 1932 Cuba hurricane happened. In general, November is probably one of the weirdest and hard-to-predict hurricane season months imho, and this year has been anything but normal.

[Blown Away]

Euro looks to be taking a step in the direction of the GFS with the system gradually transitioning to tropical it looks like and slowly approaching South Florida rather than shooting off to the NW in the Bahamas while staying weak. 0-120 hour animation below:

https://i.postimg.cc/dV0xF8QP/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh0-120.gif

...LISA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Lisa was an 85 mph hurricane at 990 mb, so the Euro, Ukmet are showing a modest TS moving towards SFL and GFS showing maybe Cat 2/3 which is outlier.

The one takeaway from the 12z runs is they are all trying to close off the LLC on the approach to SFL. Euro still a broad low, but more concentrated than previous runs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS is a stretch... that looks like an August-type system, not something you'd see in November.

I'd normally agree with you, especially considering it is the GFS. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss it.

Model consensus is forecasting 500 mb heights that are as high as 2.5 SD above the mean for early November in the NE US Wednesday night. That is equivalent to saying 500 mb hts that are at the 99% percentile meaning hts that high or higher in early November there happen only 1% of the time.

With that strong of a high to the north, the SW Atlantic/Bahamas/SE US is in a highly unusual pattern for early November as regards tropical potential. With only 8 TCs having formed since 1851 in the SW Atlantic Nov 1-10 (see link below) and considering this highly anomalous pattern, there's not much historical track data/climo to utilize to predict what will happen. So even though none of those 8 SW Atlantic originating TCs hit the US, that doesn't mean much in this very unusual pattern:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png

If we incorporate the current SW Atlantic SSTs, we get even further from normal early Nov tropical potential. They're currently 28 to 29 C (82-84 F), which is ~1C/2F warmer than the normal and near the normal for mid October (normal found here):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/SST/AL_10 ... 0_RSST.gif

Along with this very strong H5 ridge to the north and warm SSTAs, 200 mb wind speeds are forecasted to plunge well below normal early to mid next week in the SW Atlantic. So, shear may become unusually light then.

Considering all of the above, the NHC has quite a challenge and there will be lots for us to discuss over the coming days.

To follow up with your analysis... weather in Florida has been insanely hot and humid, especially for October and November. I saw seabreeze driven thunderstorms on Tuesday night... common in FL summers, but very uncommon in November.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/1588587465547599872

[gatorcane]

I see some broad cyclonic turning already down in the Eastern Caribbean. Should be an invest sometime today I would think.

[SFLcane]

I see some broad cyclonic turning already down in the Eastern Caribbean. Should be an invest sometime today I would think.

Nothing to see there recon going into area near 23N potentially.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET, which has a TS hitting Cape Canaveral at 144 moving NW, has at 168 a still well organized low S of Macon, GA, moving N. At that time, it's rain shield expands greatly with moderate to heavy rains all of the way from the NE GOM to Atlanta to SW PA, east to DC, and south to most of VA and NC. This is ahead of a rapidly SEward moving strong cold front that extends from Ohio to TX.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Is the intensity outlier

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/ZgetKAt.jpg
12z GFS... Is the intensity outlier

As larry mentioned nothing right now is an outlier and its certainly something to watch with the big august ridge overhead.

[ThunderForce]

I'm not exactly an expert so I would like a correction if I'm wrong, but I'm not really seeing much wind shear in the 12Z GFS... there seems to be a bit though. There also looks to be at least a pocket of somewhat dryer air near the center of the low. In any case, the GFS suddenly drops the pressure by over 10 millibars and intensifies the low into roughly a Cat 2 or 3 in 12 to 24 hours after forecast hour 120.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS doubles down on a hurricane moving to the Florida Penninsula.

[cycloneye]

Important key messages from NHC.

https://i.imgur.com/3qahzYJ.jpg

Have they ever issued key messages just for an outlook tagged system before?

Dont remember another one.

[NDG]

Looking at the last few runs of the GFS, it shows the system starting as a hybrid shallow warm system but becoming purely deep tropical over the warm 27-28C waters of the SW Atlantic.

This could be problematic for Volusia County beaches which suffered big time erosion from Ian which the sand dunes have not been repaired yet.

[cycloneye]