Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562894302279192576

[skyline385]

Recent loop, strong convection along the wave axis but there seems to be dry air issues near the periphery killing the cold tops off

[InfernoFlameCat]

If the area of convection keeps persisting like this, some sort of surface low will eventually organize. At the very least, it will provide ample moisture to the wave behind it.

[cycloneye]

This is from our friend and fellow co administrator AJC3 at the Strong Convection SSW of Cabo Verde Islands thread that was locked because of this.

Since all the model guidance shows this as part of the larger envelope of vorticity/convection which includes the wave behind it, I think we're at the point where we should lock this thread, and keep the discussion from here on out in that thread.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Area sw of wave is rotating and is exhibiting signs of organization.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near and south of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
this system through early next week while it moves westward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Starting to spin that big area SW of the wave NHC is highlighting?

[Teban54]

IMO, if there was only a single area of convection, it would have developed by now.

As it is, the wave is just too broad. Models generally have it get past 40W as a strung out mess, then stall there for days when it finally starts to organize. IMO current organization trends seem faster than that, but we'll see.

[SFLcane]

Starting to spin that big area SW of the wave NHC is highlighting?

https://i.imgur.com/jsdAv2X.gif

Luis, 18z euro develops the sw area.

[cycloneye]

Starting to spin that big area SW of the wave NHC is highlighting?

https://i.imgur.com/jsdAv2X.gif

Luis, 18z euro develops the sw area.

Wow yes, I didn' t see that run.

[aspen]

Looking at the CIMSS 850mb vorticity chart, it seems like the more convectively active side of the wave is just fluff. The deepest convection is between two blobs of vorticity, suggesting it hasn’t worked its way further down the atmosphere at all. It’s gonna take a while before any part of this wave is ready to start developing.

[tiger_deF]

Regardless of whether or not the SW lobe ends up developing, this is by far the most intense convection that any of these tropical waves have generated so far, especially in the past month, which could be a good indicator of the base state of the basin becoming more favorable. If this convection persists through DMin, I think this part of the wave has a definite chance at developing.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view. Many lighting strikes with it and the spin is evident.

[Iceresistance]

This could be a problem down the road if it breaks the Monsoon Trough. (I'm saying "if" because it could get retrograded back into the larger system at the African Coast.)

Dry air (and/or SAL) is limited ahead of it.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/g16split.jpg
Might be outflow already? (Look to the far right)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/wg8wvir.gif
Impressive convection with a lot of lightning within it. (Is there a circulation with it as well?)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/53431668.gif

[IsabelaWeather]

Im a bit confused on which convective area this thread is for, the one blowing up convection right now? Or the one closer to the Cabo Verdes?

[cycloneye]

Im a bit confused on which convective area this thread is for, the one blowing up convection right now? Or the one closer to the Cabo Verdes?

From AJC3 earlier.

all the model guidance shows this as part of the larger envelope of vorticity/convection which includes the wave behind

[SFLcane]

Comparing 144hrs from the eps 12z vs 18z. Looks like an uptick

[SFLcane]

This could be a problem down the road if it breaks the Monsoon Trough. (I'm saying "if" because it could get retrograded back into the larger system at the African Coast.)

Dry air (and/or SAL) is limited ahead of it.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/g16split.jpg
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/g16split.jpg
Might be outflow already? (Look to the far right)
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/wg8wvir.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/wg8wvir.gif
Impressive convection with a lot of lightning within it. (Is there a circulation with it as well?)
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/53431668.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/53431668.gif

Upper divergence holy cow!

[Hurricaneman]

I believe the SW lobe will win out, the NE lobe is fighting dry air a I do believe SAL will get that one while the vorticity with the SW one will increase with little to no dry air to inhibit it

[Iceresistance]

This could be a problem down the road if it breaks the Monsoon Trough. (I'm saying "if" because it could get retrograded back into the larger system at the African Coast.)

Dry air (and/or SAL) is limited ahead of it.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/g16split.jpg
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/g16split.jpg
Might be outflow already? (Look to the far right)
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/wg8wvir.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/wg8wvir.gif
Impressive convection with a lot of lightning within it. (Is there a circulation with it as well?)
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/53431668.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/53431668.gif

Upper divergence holy cow!

I was thinking of the same thing too, this could be a troublemaker down the road if it keeps going like this. And it's basically Midnight where this system is located! The strong convection appears to be nonstop in the past few hours.