Posible GOM development?

[NDG]

I think that if the GFS & Euro are correct with tropical development on the Coastal Pacific side of MX conditions will be even worst in the southern GOM for tropical development.

[rickybobby]

Fox 35 just said it could be a strong ts or a cat 1. Right now the models have it going to the border of LA and MS. Florida should be clear but you can't predict where the storm will go this early.

[Steve]

00z Nam starts pumping moisture into the central Gulf of Mexico by 84. First one out. Circulation doesn't appear to be coming up yet but it's shooting out precipitation surges to its north maybe up to 25/26N

[BigB0882]

This is one where I don't think anyone should focus on where it will make "landfall." Areas to the East will probably get most if not all of the rain. So I am not really interested if this tracks to SELA, I would be more apt to pay attention if it went to SWLA because that would probably mean a lot more rain for us. I can't be worried about any wind or anything at this point seems highly unlikely with that kind of shear being forecast.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS has the strongest landfall of the last four runs, 1002 mb over far SE LA/MS late Tue 9/29 with plenty of shear nearby the entire time.

[Stormcenter]

Can you please post image? Thanks

The 0Z GFS has the strongest landfall of the last four runs, 1002 mb over far SE LA/MS late Tue 9/29 with plenty of shear nearby the entire time.

[LarryWx]

Can you please post image? Thanks

The 0Z GFS has the strongest landfall of the last four runs, 1002 mb over far SE LA/MS late Tue 9/29 with plenty of shear nearby the entire time.

Link: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?imag ... &scrolly=0

[Stormcenter]

Thanks again!

Can you please post image? Thanks

The 0Z GFS has the strongest landfall of the last four runs, 1002 mb over far SE LA/MS late Tue 9/29 with plenty of shear nearby the entire time.

Link: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?imag ... &scrolly=0

[ROCK]

Really we are to far out to determine landfall (if any) and intensity...my gut ( and I ate 20 buffalo shrimp at Hooter) tonight that trof misses it and send the energy into Texas...just my2 cents

[LarryWx]

Ok, folks, if you want real entertainment keeping in mind how rarely it ever scores a coup, check out the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC). It has it skirt LA as a 986 mb H Wed, then go back south 200 miles and strengthen to 977 mb, and then it heads NE aiming for AL/far W FL at 969 mb on 10/3. No, I'm not making this up:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

Next up: the King. I hate DST in times like this lol. Anyone staying up for the Great One?

[Steve]

Can't be the strongest in 4 years. No way Isaac had to be lower and Sandy too, right?

[emeraldislenc]

four RUNS not years!

[Steve]

Lmao. My bad. One of these days I'll get a pair of glasses

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Great One/Euro/King doesn't do great things with 97L. The strongest is gets is only down to 1007 mb and it pretty much breaks up in the GOM. Compare that to the 0Z GFS' 1002 mb and the CMC's 986 on the first go around and 969 mb on the second go around.

[ronjon]

I know its the NAVGEM but it develops 1001 mb low in eastern GOM.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2015092400/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_21.png

[NDG]

Look how far away it has the strongest winds, that's a subtropical/hybrid system that the 0z GFS shows.

[NDG]

06z GFS back to a weaker low, highly sheared with 60 knot UL winds on top of it as it nears the gulf coast on Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea and Central America are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system is not expected during the
next several days due to interaction with land and unfavorable
upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to reach the
southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend, and even though
upper-level winds are not expected to be particularly favorable,
some development is possible early next week while the system moves
northward over the central Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[ronjon]

The system will have the best chance of development if it can stay in the eastern GOM. Upper level winds are actually predicted to be favorable there.

GFS 200mb winds

[Dean4Storms]

After learning about the 44 mph wind gust at the Jax Bch pier this morning from a baroclinically driven low pressure gradient it wouldn't surprise me to see some winds like that in this system early next week either out over the Gulf or even greater.