Wave emerging Africa: (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

I'll believe the models when I see it. My level of enthusiasm is at an all-time low at this point!!

+1

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[gatorcane]

Development chances certainly high for this invest which is just about ready to move off the African continent. Will it become our first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic season? Certainly looks like it will make a run for it...very nice moisture envelope for this wave, and a big burst of convection should help it get going:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why not Gatorcane...?! things should take off a bit now as we're in the peak now
Given your analysis, what elements could hindering the development of this twave, if any? Your thoughts are as usual welcomed . What could we do if Gatorcane was not on this board often?

Thanks Gustywind! Regarding inhibiting factors, what Wxman57 said about the mid-level dry air and also the fact the models tend to recurve this relatively quickly after it rolls off Africa which, if happens, would give it less time over warm water and less time to take advantage of a moist environment around the Cape Verde islands.

[Gustywind]

Development chances certainly high for this invest which is just about ready to move off the African continent. Will it become our first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic season? Certainly looks like it will make a run for it...very nice moisture envelope for this wave, and a big burst of convection should help it get going:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why not Gatorcane...?! things should take off a bit now as we're in the peak now
Given your analysis, what elements could hindering the development of this twave, if any? Your thoughts are as usual welcomed . What could we do if Gatorcane was not on this board often?

Thanks Gustywind! Regarding inhibiting factors, what Wxman57 said about the mid-level dry air and also the fact the models tend to recurve this relatively quickly after it rolls off Africa which, if happens, would give it less time over warm water and less time to take advantage of a moist environment around the Cape Verde islands.

Thanks seems pretty objective statements IMO , agree with that. We will have a better idea during the next couple of days, but that's a great for now.

[Gustywind]

Hey Ouragans, what do you think about this feature? Any thoughts about?

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder what's the likelihood of this system pulling an Igor...well, of course on a much smaller scale....

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

According to the graphics on this web page shear is overall about normal through the Atlantic basin.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_00-24.asp

[Hammy]

found a good 24 hour Africa satellite loop http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?CONT=afri&CREG=d5if&LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&LOOP=24

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%-80%

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

[hurricanes1234]

Are the models back to showing a hurricane, or did they drop hurricane strength for good?

[gatorcane]

GFS and ECMWF continue to be very bullish on development. Has a decent chance of becoming this season's first hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

lets see if it doesn't dry up after oceanfall ... would be nice to have a system that lasts more than 24 hours!

[ninel conde]

it has dried up some since last night. i want to break the record.

[wxman57]

Are the models back to showing a hurricane, or did they drop hurricane strength for good?

Euro keeps the pressure above 1000mb, indicating moderate TS. GFS has a hurricane striking the Azores in 2 weeks. Don't care what the Canadian says. No threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.

[ninel conde]

Are the models back to showing a hurricane, or did they drop hurricane strength for good?

Euro keeps the pressure above 1000mb, indicating moderate TS. GFS has a hurricane striking the Azores in 2 weeks. Don't care what the Canadian says. No threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.

2weeks? a tropical system wandering around the east atlantic will block any other wave. thats it for the CV season.

[tolakram]

Are the models back to showing a hurricane, or did they drop hurricane strength for good?

Euro keeps the pressure above 1000mb, indicating moderate TS. GFS has a hurricane striking the Azores in 2 weeks. Don't care what the Canadian says. No threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.

2weeks? a tropical system wandering around the east atlantic will block any other wave. thats it for the CV season.

Where in the world do you get these ideas?

[hurricanes1234]

It does look a little dried up.

[NDG]

My thinking that with such a strong surface high over the Azores for this time of the year during the next few days that this tropical wave is not going to do much strengthwise, I doubt that this could become our first hurricane, lots of stable air over the eastern Atlantic with such a strong surface high.

[Zanthe]

Are the models back to showing a hurricane, or did they drop hurricane strength for good?

Euro keeps the pressure above 1000mb, indicating moderate TS. GFS has a hurricane striking the Azores in 2 weeks. Don't care what the Canadian says. No threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.

2weeks? a tropical system wandering around the east atlantic will block any other wave. thats it for the CV season.

That's just not true.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have an idea when this could be tagged an Invest now that the 48hr. development chances are at 20%?