Pouch PGI51L : East of the Windwards (Is part of invest 97L)

[Vortex]

12Z euro also shows it near N coast of DR in 7-8 days


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0092912!!/

[Vortex]

12Z ECM than turns it north...There is some model support from all the globals..



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0092912!!/

[Weatherfreak000]

I think the NHC kept chances the same because these invests commonly flare up and have that very sheared convective look in that general area. Vorticity maps suggest this is not getting any better organized. Isn't it at all possible the models are developing this a tad too quickly? I was under the impression it would make the Caribbean...I have a feeling it doesn't matter. The GOM season is very nearly done with the fronts coming down.

Up to 30% chance overall of seeing the O storm this weekend! I like it, and considering how the other invest's synoptic pattern and vorticity has increased, it may be already too small.

[Vortex]

yesterdays's 12Z was in the bahamas...


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0092812!!/

[Nimbus]

Looks like some improving divergence near 12.5N -49W. A track north of the islands would be nice. Another digging trough to take it out to sea would be even better.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, is the system behind this one that the models are latching on.

[Gustywind]

[Vortex]

18Z GFS ensembles also take it into carribean similar to Nam and Nogaps in about 6-7 days





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal156.gif

[Vortex]

and west in 8 days...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

[Vortex]

00z NAM about to roll...

[Vortex]

Hey peeps, is the system behind this one that the models are latching on.

Luis, canadian develops the second one..you can follow the vorticity



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

GFS 18Z 825mb vorticity..develops system east of windwards


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

If it develops tough, to see how it could make it even close to the united states. The 18z gfs moves it just east of the Bahamas but it does not deepen it. Then a huge fall trough swoops in and sends it into the Atlantic graveyard. If it develops quicker it recurves quicker.

[Vortex]

or gator it heads through the carribean and turns N in the western carribean...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

the area around 12.9/51 looks like the suspect area..In fact, the 00z run of the name places a closed low just west of the windwards in 48 hours..





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

H54 entering carribean



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Vortex]

H54 200mb upeer level winds across the eastern carribean very light..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

I really dont see why the NHC says the environment will become less favorable for it with the upper level conditions the NAM is showing... Only problem I see right now is the second wave has wayyyy more vorticity than this one.

[Vortex]

H60 over eastern carribean...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif