Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

long line of convection, and I'm working on that 1000th post so forgive me.

[bob rulz]

Does this still have model support?

The convection in the Gulf of Mexico appears to have become a bit more organized today. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a 10% on this sometime tomorrow.

[lrak]

its got the look!

1000th post 90% were questions

[TexWx]

The look appears to have poofed

[bob rulz]

Yeah the convection has definitely started decreasing, but aren't we approaching d-min as well?

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

no low level convergence....poof...

[bob rulz]

Yeah, there doesn't appear to be anything going on at the surface with this disturbance.

It's still worth keeping an eye on at least.

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010


GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR MOVING INTO THE E SEABOARD AND SE
STATES...CREATING A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR
ALONG THE SE US COASTLINE. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF E OF 93W N OF 24N. THE ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED 80 NM WEST OF MADEIRA BEACH FLORIDA NEAR
28N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR
24N87W. AS CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING QUITE RAPIDLY...REEFER TO
YOUR LOCAL COASTAL NWS FOR MORE DETAILS AND WARNINGS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The latest euro model I saw had a little something of interest in 96 hours south of southwest la. Wonder if this is that low developing just west of Florida.

[Vortmax1]

Wonder if this is that low developing just west of Florida.

I have been following that on the ECM also. I guess we'll find out.
I didn't see any mention of this low in the local discussions that I checked this morning.
It must have popped up there after they all did their analysis.

[Portastorm]

Very interesting snippet from Jeff Lindner's morning email concerning the Gulf:

"Strong upper ridge redevelops over the SE US toward the end of the week with current trough along the east coast into the central Gulf fracturing in half. Gulf portion of this trough begins to move westward under a developing tropical easterly flow. Major global models have been hinting at various solutions for the Thursday-Sunday period with anything from a full fledge tropical system to a weak westward moving wave axis. For now will go with the weaker solutions and just indicate an increase in deep tropical moisture by Saturday. May need to really raise rain chances for the weekend if the latest GFS is correct or if a tropical system spins up in the central/western Gulf."

[GCANE]

Euro ensemble seems to be about a 10% chance of genesis within 60 hrs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

6Z Friday GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_090l.gif

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS suggests a nice rain-maker for south Texas, ensuring that the first weekend of high school football in the southern half of the state might be rather soggy. This would be great IMO. Cuts the heat and gives us much-needed rain!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

yeah portastorm i totally agree. its finally looking like rain here in south texas!

[PauleinHouston]

Well, this sat loop around TPA shows a rather tight spin. Appears to be moving back and forth along the trough.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20100823&endTime=-1&duration=3

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM

[rockyman]

Looks like both the NAM and GFS try to develop something in the southwestern Gulf...possibly coming from the Bay of Campeche:

[CrazyC83]

That would probably be Fiona if it developed, and pretty weak I would think...

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

its a start, and a little rotation right around the panhandle.

the middle little blob is interesting.

the Yucatan is spinning too....hmmm.

which one?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes