Wave in Caribbean

[hurricanetrack]

Luis- and others- what exactly does the color bar mean? In other words is purple really .2 percent chance of development? And Yellow is 6 percent chance? I do not understand the color bar....

[cycloneye]

Luis- and others- what exactly does the color bar mean? In other words is purple really .2 percent chance of development? And Yellow is 6 percent chance? I do not understand the color bar....

Purple doesn't appear in their index so is less than 4%.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

Code: Select all

TC Formation Area
of Intestest Category  Occurrence Frequency
(ATLC / EPAC / WPAC)  Dependent Cases
Included
Possible (Blue) 4% 7% 5% 75%
Fair (Orange) 10% 26% 12% 25%
Good (Red) 20% 46% 18% 5%


[xcool22]

go here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

[hurricanetrack]

On this map there is purple: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrfpr.png

What do the numbers along the bottom mean? How are they only going up to 12%?

[cycloneye]

On this map there is purple: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrfpr.png

What do the numbers along the bottom mean? How are they only going up to 12%?

Mark,this link below may have the answer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/description.html

[hurricanetrack]

Thanks as always Luis! You seem to have links to everything out there. Very nice.

In this graphic, am I to assume that the shear is quite a bit less than climo at this point?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... tatshr.png

[Ivanhater]

18z nogaps likes this wave...gains latitude and ends up in the central Caribbean

Shear looks to be favorable ahead and waters are obviously plenty warm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

This wave (Same one I have been following in this thread since June 2) got a mention by NHC however,the % is 0.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Barbados is getting pretty high winds with heavy showers.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TBPB 091100Z 10026KT 2000 +SHRA BKN012CB SCT014 BKN036 25/24 Q1016 NOSIG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Gustywind]

you're right Luis and another friend from Grenada is speaking about the possible arrival of this twave before the end of the day...
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/grenada.shtml

- Heavy rain way out to the East and heading this way?
By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2010 07:19:27 -0400

Good morning (Wednesday)


For the last 2-3 days I have not been able to view the Rain radar from Martinique. I don't know if the web site has moved or if it has been restricted. This is one of my best tools for seeing rain approaching. If anyone else can find out where it has moved to or why it is not showing, then please let me know.


So just looking at the satellite images this morning, it shows a band of heavy convection, bubbling up, stretching South from Barbados (where heavy rain is showing on the airport report) to well off to the East of Tobago. It is moving in our general direction. This rain is the northern crest of a tropical wave As I have seen on many occasions this type of convection can disappear as quick as it appears. But my feeling is we could see some rain (maybe heavy) before the day is out. We have some painting to do so do we have time to do it?

Have a good day.

Hogan of Grenada

[wxman57]

For now it's just an average tropical wave with little chance of development. Shear drops off in the western Caribbean, though, so there may be some chance of development there in 3-4 days. Good to see in the NHC outlook that a yellow area doesn't mean 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I like seeing the near zero percent chance in there to differentiate from waves that might really have a chance in the near-term.

[srainhoutx]

Our first wave to survive the long trek across the Atlantic is approaching the W Caribbean. I suspect this is the first of many that we will track before the end of Atlantic Season 2010.

[pepeavilenho]

I suposse it is not an Invest, isn't it?

[cycloneye]

Agree with wxman57.Also,pressures are high (See Barbados Observations) and there is a TUTT in the Central Caribbean as a hurdle in the near term.

Below is a web cam from Barbados. You can see many cams from the Caribbean in the thread (At first Post) in U.S & Caribbean weather forum. Big Thread for Caribbean & Central America

http://www.portstcharles.com/webcam_window.php?cam=3

[ronjon]

For now it's just an average tropical wave with little chance of development. Shear drops off in the western Caribbean, though, so there may be some chance of development there in 3-4 days. Good to see in the NHC outlook that a yellow area doesn't mean 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I like seeing the near zero percent chance in there to differentiate from waves that might really have a chance in the near-term.

I believe this wave, as it moves into the western caribbean, is the seed that has been sparking on and off tropical development in the GFS model over the last several days. This mornings 06Z GFS run again develops low pressure which eventually crosses the Yucatan and moves into the BOC in 7 days.

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion of Caribbean this morning.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

IN THE SHORT RANGE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TROPICAL WAVES ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS 14N/15N...WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR JUNE
(MORE COMMON IN AUGUST-OCTOBER). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...I EXPECT SOME OF
THEIR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 02 (FRIDAY).
POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WITH
THE TUTT ALOFT WILL POSSIBLY MAKE IT QUITE INTENSE...IF NOT
EXPLOSIVE...PRECIPITATION EVENT.

[wxman57]

Actually, it appears to be something else that the GFS is developing. I tracked the low-level vorticity from the wave approaching the Caribbean (circled on the image below) and the GFS develops something out ahead of it, apparently out of thin air. The wave does reach the GFS low on Monday and it appears to enhance it, though. I have been saying to watch out around the 13th of the month as wind shear drops off in the western Caribbean. So we'll have to keep an eye on this one.

The good news is that both the GFS and ECMWF have a ridge centered over south Louisiana for the next week. That should steer anything that develops westward across the Yucatan (or Central America) and into southern Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Loop