2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here

[KWT]

Just one month to go till the start of what could be a rather active hurricane season it has to be said!!

[HURAKAN]

One month away! Time flies.

[cycloneye]

Wow,it was two months ago that I started the countdown and here we are less than a month left.

[cycloneye]

If anyone is interested,I posted my brief analysis of the 2010 season at Tropical Analysis forum.

viewforum.php?f=29

[StormingB81]

This is crazy..just yesterday it seemed this number was in the 70s and 80s..now like that it is less then a month away...Prepare now so you dont fight the lines later!

[KWT]

Yep it is quite insane, we are now at the time of year where in theory we can start to get TC's developing in the gulf, though stronger the TS status is quite unusual to get...with Able being the standout system from 1951, becoming a major hurricane over the Gulf Stream.

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps a thread on EPAC action. I suspect we'll see some May Activity. After all that Season starts on May 15th. MJO wave in about a couple of weeks…regardless it is looking interesting for the Atlantic Basin...

[cycloneye]

I found this from Bloomberg in the U.K.

Hurricane Forecasters See Worst Looming in 2010 Atlantic Season
May 03, 2010, 11:02 PM EDT

By Brian K. Sullivan

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may rival some of the worst in history as meteorological conditions mirror 2005, the record-breaking year that spawned New Orleans- wrecking Katrina, forecasters say.

The El Nino warming in the Pacific is fading and rain is keeping dust down in Africa, cutting off two phenomena that help retard Atlantic hurricane formation.

Perhaps most significantly, sea temperatures from the Cape Verde Islands to the Caribbean, where the storms usually develop, are above normal and reaching records in some areas.

“We have only seen that in three previous seasons, 2005, 1958 and 1969, and all three of those years had five major hurricanes,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. “I am definitely thinking that this is going to be a severe hurricane season.”

With less than a month to go before the official June 1 start of the season, predictions are for 14 to 18 named storms. In an average year, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph (62 kph), six of them reaching the 74-mph threshold for hurricanes and two growing into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, the National Hurricane Center says.

Last year’s nine named storms were the fewest since 1997. Three became hurricanes and none made landfall in the U.S. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s agricultural areas.

Gulf Threat

The Gulf is home to about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Department of Energy says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Florida is the second- largest producer of oranges after Brazil.

Energy disruptions could occur if 2010 produces a repeat of 2008, when hurricanes Gustav and Ike slammed into the Gulf Coast about a week apart, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consulting company.

“The good news going into hurricane season is that we have significant amounts of inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels,” he said.

In 1998, storms caused 15 million barrels of oil outages and 48 billion cubic feet of natural gas outages in the Gulf, according to AccuWeather Inc. records. In 2005, it was 110 million barrels and 683 bcf, and in 2008, 62 million barrels of oil and 408 bcf of gas were shut in.

Storms’ Destruction

The usual misery and destruction from a Gulf hurricane hit may be magnified if the spill of crude from a burned-out rig near Louisiana hasn’t been stopped before storms arrive with winds and waves that could push oil inland.

In 2005, Katrina struck Louisiana, Mississippi and part of Alabama, unleashing floods that devastated New Orleans, killing more than 1,800 people, displacing 250,000 and causing about $125 billion in damage, according to the hurricane center.

Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, said he doesn’t think the Atlantic can produce 28 storms this year, as it did in 2005, the most active year on record.

“I have 2005 in the mix” of years to compare to 2010, Bastardi said. “But if I had to choose, I would choose 1998 over 2005.”

In 1998, 14 named storms formed, 11 of which turned into hurricanes, according to Weather Underground’s website. There were 15 hurricanes in 2005.

AccuWeather’s Call

AccuWeather currently calls for 16 to 18 storms to form. Bastardi predicts the current El Nino will change into a La Nina, cooling the Pacific in time to influence the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

While El Nino fades, hot spots in the Atlantic set a monthly record in March, breaking a mark set in 1969, and tied the high set in June 2005, Masters said. Hurricanes draw on warm water to form and gain strength.

Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach chose 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 as the years that shared the most similarities with 2010.

In 1958, 10 storms, including five major hurricanes, formed after an El Nino faded.

In 1969, Hurricane Camille crashed into the U.S. Gulf Coast with winds in excess of 200 miles per hour. The exact strength is unknown because the storm destroyed all the wind measurement devices. It killed 256 people and caused $1.4 billion in damage.

East at Risk

The U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine has a raised risk of being hit by a hurricane this year, said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Andover, Massachusetts-based WSI Inc.

The Northeast usually has about a 25 percent chance of a hurricane strike, Crawford said. This year, it has a 48 percent chance, close to the 50 percent chance the Gulf of Mexico and Florida have every year, he said.

“We’re not too bullish on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “We’re liking the track threatening Florida and the eastern Gulf, followed by the entire Gulf and the third emphasis would be on the Carolinas.”

Rouiller said he believes a trough will develop along the U.S. East Coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England, shielding the region. That may mean more risk for the Canadian Maritime provinces, which have some oil platforms and refineries.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center will issue its forecast on May 20.

Get Ready

Each year, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center urges everyone living along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to prepare for a storm strike, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman, said in an e- mail.

“It’s very important to note that a seasonal outlook cannot forecast where and when storms will form, let alone if or where they will make landfall and at what strength,” Feltgen said. “It only takes one storm hitting your area to make it a bad year, regardless of the number of storms that are forecast in the seasonal outlook.”

An example of how one storm can overshadow an entire season came in 1992. That year, only six named storms and one sub- tropical system formed, and only two of those made landfall, according to hurricane center records.

One of them was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of Florida and Louisiana, killing 26 people and causing $26.5 billion in damage. Its top winds of 165 at landfall in Florida made it a Category 5 storm, the most powerful on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Scale.

It was only the third time such a powerful storm hit the U.S.

--Editors: Charlotte Porter, Dan Stets

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net

[cycloneye]

Anyone wants to play the guessing game and say what kind of numbers NOAA will release on the 20th?

I say between 14-18.

[Cookie]

Anyone wants to play the guessing game and say what kind of numbers NOAA will release on the 20th?

I say between 14-18.

any reason why the pick that date?

do they try and leave it as late as possible?

[cycloneye]

Anyone wants to play the guessing game and say what kind of numbers NOAA will release on the 20th?

I say between 14-18.

any reason why the pick that date?

do they try and leave it as late as possible?

Every year they release their forecast around the third week of May.

[KWT]

Just 1 week now till the EPAC season kicks off, also the Atlantic countdown will be in single digits soon enough as well....

[Aquawind]

Yep both basins are getting close to kickoff. I would think the ATL Basin has a better chance of having the first system versus the EPAC this year.

[somethingfunny]

Happy EPAC Hurricane Season!

[cycloneye]

Does any of our pro mets or members will go to the Florida Governors Hurricane Conference that will be held from May 23rd to May 28th?

http://www.flghc.org/

[thetruesms]

Does any of our pro mets or members will go to the Florida Governors Hurricane Conference that will be held from May 23rd to May 28th?

http://www.flghc.org/

I wish - instead I'll just be backing up someone who is going

[Ixolib]

Thanks for the read Luis, but dadgum - will it ever come to pass when the media finally recognizes that Katrina's "wrecking" of the MS Gulf Coast far outweighed her "wrecking" of New Orleans. Ixolib steps down again off his soap box.....

I found this from Bloomberg in the U.K.

Hurricane Forecasters See Worst Looming in 2010 Atlantic Season
May 03, 2010, 11:02 PM EDT

By Brian K. Sullivan

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may rival some of the worst in history as meteorological conditions mirror 2005, the record-breaking year that spawned New Orleans- wrecking Katrina, forecasters say......

[weatherwindow]

so right...imho, the only saving grace with respect to the ms coast was the lesser population density vis-a-vis nola...if the surges extant at pass christian and gulfport impacted an area with the population density of nola and the eastern parishes, the death toll would have quadrupled. as has been stated repeatedly, katrina was a natural disaster in ms and a man-made disaster in la...rich

[hurricanehunter69]

I've lived in New Orleans for 43 years, and have experienced countless hurricanes and storms. But not a single one of them were even close to what I experienced with Katrina! I witnessed the catagory 3 hurricane conditions myself! Cat 3 conditions were felt as far west as the New Orleans Int. airport! I can go on and on and list everything I saw but, I'll simply say that I experienced and witnessed with my own two eyes the utter devastation that was caused by the WIND! As for the levees.....it was Katrina's mammoth size and 28 foot storm surge that devastated and flooded the city of New Orleans.

[HURAKAN]

Welcome to S2k!