Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[HURAKAN]

It's so quiet that it's boring!!!

[wxman57]

And the upward motion pulse is fading. Here comes the sinking air for July!

[Derek Ortt]

I hope that we have a 5 storm season, the first in late August and all 5 are sheared messes that remain at sea

[cycloneye]

And the days left for the 2009 Atlantic to end continue to dwindel.

http://www.timeanddate.com/counters/cus ... ec=&p0=179

[Macrocane]

I hope that we have a 5 storm season, the first in late August and all 5 are sheared messes that remain at sea

You're not a tropical specialized met, are you?

[wxman57]

I hope that we have a 5 storm season, the first in late August and all 5 are sheared messes that remain at sea

You're not a tropical specialized met, are you?

He certainly is. As good as hurricanes can be for business, I'm hoping it's quiet this year, too.

[KWT]

Certainly is looking like a slow start to the season, I think conditions are pretty poor this season for storms, seems like the two pro mets on this thread may just get there way, may need to depend on the Pacific for decent storms this season...

Of course as has been said probably thousands of times, it does only take one big system to hit a noteable area and this season will be remembered, just like 1992.

[Cookie]

It's so quiet that it's boring!!!

yup

[Ed Mahmoud]

And the upward motion pulse is fading. Here comes the sinking air for July!

You'll never guess who loves to use and show that very chart in his videos...


But Winter 2008-2009 may be one to remember!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope that we have a 5 storm season, the first in late August and all 5 are sheared messes that remain at sea

Moderately strong warm ENSO could mean the first actual hurricane of the Millenium for Hawai'i.


They came close a couple of years back, IIRC, but a storm headed for the Big Island suffered from late term fizzle-ation.

[KWT]

Who knows what will happen Ed.

I'd probably give the EPAC a 50-50 shot at getting above average ACE this season. Since 1995 only 1997 and 2006 have made it, and 2006 was with a big help from Ioke as well. Still get a couple of decent length majors and the odds shortern a lot so we shall see, probably too early to make a good call in that respect.

[Macrocane]

I hope that we have a 5 storm season, the first in late August and all 5 are sheared messes that remain at sea

You're not a tropical specialized met, are you?

He certainly is. As good as hurricanes can be for business, I'm hoping it's quiet this year, too.

I want a more active season perhaps because I don't see them as business, I don't want a destructive season either but certainly I want more than 5 storms. Sorry if I thought you weren't a tropical-met. By the way, the tropics could turn active again in a week or so (at least in the EPAC), the Canadian, Euro and NOGAPS are showing something.

[wxman57]

And the upward motion pulse is fading. Here comes the sinking air for July!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

You'll never guess who loves to use and show that very chart in his videos...


But Winter 2008-2009 may be one to remember!

I don't have to guess, I got the link from his blog.

[srainhoutx]

And the upward motion pulse is fading. Here comes the sinking air for July!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

You'll never guess who loves to use and show that very chart in his videos...


But Winter 2008-2009 may be one to remember!

I don't have to guess, I got the link from his blog.

[Andrew92]

Well, everybody can hope the Eastern Pacific is where the activity is, but let's remember that that side of Mexico does often get hit by significant hurricanes during seasons like this. Pauline and Kenna are the two that most ring into my mind, but John and Lane also caused major problems in 2006. Either one of those two could very arguably have been retired, but neither were.

And even my area of the country can receive the remnants of these storms. Nora from 1997, anyone? (Yes, I wasn't living here during Nora, but I know what it did.)

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

Here's a good web site to read about Global TC activity trends. He just updated the graphic of past global and northern hemisphere ACE on June 29th:

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[Sanibel]

Not worth a separate thread, but there's a hanging front dropping into the GOM right now. I would say it is more Atlantic oriented. About the only thing out there with a chance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not worth a separate thread, but there's a hanging front dropping into the GOM right now. I would say it is more Atlantic oriented. About the only thing out there with a chance.

During this stronger than expected warm ENSO event, I'd guess a greater percentage of tropical cyclones than usual have non-tropical sources.

Shear looks unfavorable in the MDR, although it is still early in the season.


That area off Florida/Alabama does have some LL convergence and upper divergence and weak 850 mb vorticity per CIMMS site, but I'm not aware it has any model support.

[wx247]

I am just waiting around to hear someone post a "season cancel" post right before something pops up. Those are always good for a laugh 30 days into the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[HouTXmetro]

I am just waiting around to hear someone post a "season cancel" post right before something pops up. Those are always good for a laugh 30 days into the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Move along, season over. Time to start our 2010 predictions.