Very unofficial- Texas season over?

[Air Force Met]

It was a fluke...

King Arthur: [after Arthur's cut off both of the Black Knight's arms] Look, you stupid Bastard. You've got no arms left.
Black Knight: Yes I have.
King Arthur: *Look*!
Black Knight: It's just a flesh wound.

[Category 5]

It was a fluke...

No, it was P.U.I, Posting Under the Influence, now eat your crow.

[jinftl]

Murphy's Law would have said that evacuations should have started in coastal tx when this 'very unofficial' post was written!

Please...anyone in florida...don't make the same mistake!!! PLease....begging you!

[MiamiensisWx]

It was a fluke...

You can't exclusively rely on the most recent two decades to conclusively state that an early/mid/late September TC in Texas is a "fluke." It is a common fallacy that is made by many contributors here: according to their calculations, based on recent history, a particular track/general movement, landfall location, etc. is (or is not) a "fluke." History indicates the Texas "fluke" statement is far from the case; in fact, in addition to Rita/Ike, two of the most devastating Texas TCs were Carla 1961 and the 1900 Galveston hurricane. These tropical cyclones affected the state on September 12 and 8, respectively. Other examples of Texas September strikes include 1910 #3 (September 14/Cat 2), 1919 #2 (September 14/Cat 3), 1933 #11 (September 5/Cat 3), Cindy 1963 (Cat 1), Beulah 1967 (Cat 3), Fern 1971 (Cat 1), Humberto 2007 (Cat 1), and others.

However, October strikes represent a very different situation, and you're correct in regards to the rarity of October strikes (compared to preceding months).

[Jinkers]

Murphy's Law would have said that evacuations should have started in coastal tx when this 'very unofficial' post was written!

Please...anyone in florida...don't make the same mistake!!! PLease....begging you!

Believe me I won't-lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, other than that one fluke storm, that somehow managed to get across the Gulf even with Westerlies in the Northern Gulf almost the entire month, well, almost nailed it.


October, one hurricane, 1989's Jerry, barely a Cat 1, in six decades.


But I won't make any bold sweeping predictions until November and the beginning of SE Texas winter weather season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It was a fluke...

You can't exclusively rely on the most recent two decades to conclusively state that an early/mid/late September TC in Texas is a "fluke." It is a common fallacy that is made by many contributors here: according to their calculations, based on recent history, a particular track/general movement, landfall location, etc. is (or is not) a "fluke." History indicates the Texas "fluke" statement is far from the case; in fact, in addition to Rita/Ike, two of the most devastating Texas TCs were Carla 1961 and the 1900 Galveston hurricane. These tropical cyclones affected the state on September 12 and 8, respectively. Other examples of Texas September strikes include 1910 #3 (September 14/Cat 2), 1919 #2 (September 14/Cat 3), 1933 #11 (September 5/Cat 3), Cindy 1963 (Cat 1), Beulah 1967 (Cat 3), Fern 1971 (Cat 1), Humberto 2007 (Cat 1), and others.

However, October strikes represent a very different situation, and you're correct in regards to the rarity of October strikes (compared to preceding months).

BTW, I know a normal September the season isn't over, but Autumn set in early, for the most part, this year.

[jinftl]

it's the 'for the most part' part that can screw everything up!

other than the peace of mind that can be gained by declaring a season is over...bottom line, would a storm hitting now vs in august elicit a different response? As long as preparation is not compromised and insufficient because of the mindset that the 'season is over' or 'storms don't hit in october'...and i don't think the storm-savvy public would overall be guilty of that.

So if it brings some peace of mind after a rough season....a horrible season for texas....then yes, it is over.....but keep one eye out and react accordingly by that small small chance something approaches. If it counts for anything, Texas has dealt with enough to not only fairly get the rest of the season off....but the next few seasons off too~

It was a fluke...

You can't exclusively rely on the most recent two decades to conclusively state that an early/mid/late September TC in Texas is a "fluke." It is a common fallacy that is made by many contributors here: according to their calculations, based on recent history, a particular track/general movement, landfall location, etc. is (or is not) a "fluke." History indicates the Texas "fluke" statement is far from the case; in fact, in addition to Rita/Ike, two of the most devastating Texas TCs were Carla 1961 and the 1900 Galveston hurricane. These tropical cyclones affected the state on September 12 and 8, respectively. Other examples of Texas September strikes include 1910 #3 (September 14/Cat 2), 1919 #2 (September 14/Cat 3), 1933 #11 (September 5/Cat 3), Cindy 1963 (Cat 1), Beulah 1967 (Cat 3), Fern 1971 (Cat 1), Humberto 2007 (Cat 1), and others.

However, October strikes represent a very different situation, and you're correct in regards to the rarity of October strikes (compared to preceding months).

BTW, I know a normal September the season isn't over, but Autumn set in early, for the most part, this year.

[Portastorm]

Yes and I will respectfully disagree as well and my problem is with the "for the most part" language. If Ed wants to define "Autumn" as the westerlies being over most of the state ... fine. But to say that Fall weather is predominant over Central and Southern Texas is just flat out incorrect. We continue to see temperatures, namely highs, above normal. Here in Austin, we're back in the low to middle 90s consistently.

Traditionally, central and south Texas start to experience significant cold fronts (temperature drops into the low to middle 80s) by the third week of September. Take a look at the last week of temps in Texas in the graphic below ... you see basically normal to above-normal temps. Fall has NOT come early this year IMHO.

[HurricaneRobert]

Wasn't it the fall pattern that created an opening for Ike to come to Texas? So the faulty assumption is that summer and the tropical cyclone season are the same.

Does Texas see many tropical cyclones during long, hot, and dry summers?

[ROCK]

Yes and I will respectfully disagree as well and my problem is with the "for the most part" language. If Ed wants to define "Autumn" as the westerlies being over most of the state ... fine. But to say that Fall weather is predominant over Central and Southern Texas is just flat out incorrect. We continue to see temperatures, namely highs, above normal. Here in Austin, we're back in the low to middle 90s consistently.

Traditionally, central and south Texas start to experience significant cold fronts (temperature drops into the low to middle 80s) by the third week of September. Take a look at the last week of temps in Texas in the graphic below ... you see basically normal to above-normal temps. Fall has NOT come early this year IMHO.

I agree Port.....Ed loves to talk about the Westerlies for some reason... He needs to look at some of the model guidance from today....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Namely the CMC and GFS......doesnt look like fall is here in those runs....also note a week tropical system heading towards TX/LA from the BOC......

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a cold front in 4 days on the CMC, no tropical cyclone.

Ditto the 0Z and 6Z GFS. I looked at 850 mb vort on the FSU page.

But, the good news, is the last 2 GFS runs show rain, glorious rain, with the front.

[wayne56]

Bonehead forecasts of the year award goes to...you and that guy who forecast the season shutting down when October started. Compare notes guys. At least you had the guts to speak out.

[Ptarmigan]

The latest a tropical cyclone ever made landfall on Texas was October 17, 1938.

[Category 5]

Bonehead forecasts of the year award goes to...you and that guy who forecast the season shutting down when October started. Compare notes guys. At least you had the guts to speak out.

We should start a "2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Hall Of Shame" And enshrine everyone who made such posts which were then followed up by major Hurricanes.

[CajunMama]

I think everyone has said enough in this thread. Yes, ed spoke a little early but enough is enough. Some in here seem to like to continue to bring this up and continue to beat the op down.