Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z GFS Loop



Having mathematics or not I am only following this to see if this model continues consistant and see if other models join in the comming days or GFS turns out to be a loner on this.Yesterday it started on day 11,now the entretainment starts on day 10 and by reaching the 10 number,it enters in the Medium Range area.

It isn't what I'd call an official stand yet, but on his afternoon update, Joe suggests early June development is possible in the Western or Central Gulf, with the Central Gulf somewhat more favored than the Western Gulf.


Joe says the 12Z GFS will change run to run (of course), but he thinks it is sensing something.

[boca]

The 18z GFS run loses the phantom storm completely and forms a system in the E Pacific.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

00z GFS
348 Hours

[jimvb]

People say that the GFS beyond day 7 (hour 168) is a "fairy tale", but I have followed some storms all the way from hour 384 on the GFS to when they struck. They may have shifted the day somewhat, or the areas they affect, but still the storms stick around until the day of the storm. Hurricane Isabel is an example. I followed that right from hour 384 of GFS until it hit my area and caused a 21-hour power outage. It did back up six days in so doing, from 2003 Sept 24 to Sept 18, and the long-range runs sent Isabel all over the place from Florida to the Maritimes and out to sea, but I saw it in each of the runs.

I think this early June storm may be of this type. For several runs now except maybe one, GFS shows some version of this storm hitting Florida in June and then going up the Atlantic seaboard. So I am keeping an eye on this one.

[Meso]

06z

[Dean4Storms]

One thiing for certain, if it heads for the Panhandle the SST's won't support to strong a system. This could be just what the SE states need to completely bust the drought if it materializes.

[boca]

I think the GFS would be more creditable if it developed this phantom storm earlier each time as it grows near.For the last week it develops a system out of the Caribbean at 384hrs each run.If it was at 200hrs instaed of 384hrs it would be somewhat believable.This storm at 384 hrs could run into July.

[Meso]

haha well it does develop it some time before,it just seems to move north slower

[Frank2]

The current GFS loop shows one main feature - more east coast (or northeast) troughs over the next 10 days...

[jimvb]

I am still keeping an eye on this possible tropical storm. But I sort of remember that last year at this time GFS kept coming up with these 384 storms that peter out before reaching hour 180. I think the point about the always 384 storm is a good one. This storm is always going to occur the day after the day after the day after 12*[the day after] tomorrow which means it might not be a good storm; it isn't even a good movie title.

However, I do note a persistent east-west stationary front appearing in the last weekend in May in the GFS runs, seemingly giving the southeast and mid-atlantic a week of rainy, dreary weather.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z Euro shows something starting to go in the EPAC near El Salvador on Day 10. No idea if it is right or not, but it is plausible.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop



I haved been following only the 12z runs of GFS for the past few days to see if it continues to show a Western Caribbean system,and todays run shows it once again,this time starting on day 9.However,it appears to not be as very strong as in the past few 12z runs that had the lowest pressure down to 1002 mbs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

again,

I must remind everyone that due to there being no exact solution of the Navier-Stokes equations, they must be solved numerically. With any numerical solution of a PDE, there are truncation errors that grow in time.

Therefore, even though many runs of the GFS has been showing this, IT MEANS NOTHING mathematically

Navier-Stokes, isn't that petroleum engineering?


It has to do with the Reynolds number, and flow of multi-phase fluid through pore throats, IIRC. And multi-phase fluid flow in anisotroipic and non-homogeneous media, is what reservoir engineering is all about.

[Ed Mahmoud]

again,

I must remind everyone that due to there being no exact solution of the Navier-Stokes equations, they must be solved numerically. With any numerical solution of a PDE, there are truncation errors that grow in time.

Therefore, even though many runs of the GFS has been showing this, IT MEANS NOTHING mathematically

Navier-Stokes, isn't that petroleum engineering?


It has to do with the Reynolds number, and flow of multi-phase fluid through pore throats, IIRC. And multi-phase fluid flow in anisotroipic and non-homogeneous media, is what reservoir engineering is all about.

Just checking the internet- the smarter of my petroleum engineering (and computer science and math) homies from UT have branched out into all kinds, of things, including Hurricane Storm Surge Simulation on Petascale Computers (funded by NSF)


I'm glad I don't need to know what I learned in college, all that mass balance and diffusivity equation and Euler's constant approximations and the such were a tad more complicated than I cared for, and, thankfully, thoughtful people have written computer programs that do the hard work for me.

[KWT]

Yep but the key is cycloneye is that the GFS still tries and develops something, as you say it doesn't look that powerful but then again the GFS at that distance wouldn't be able to see its true strength if it forms at all of course!

[hial2]

and flow of multi-phase fluid through pore throats, [/b]IIRC. And multi-phase fluid flow in anisotroipic and non-homogeneous media

Tell me Ed, does this come turbocharged??.. ...boy do I feel DUMB

[Ed Mahmoud]

and flow of multi-phase fluid through pore throats, IIRC. And multi-phase fluid flow in anisotroipic and non-homogeneous media

Tell me Ed, does this come turbocharged??.. ...boy do I feel DUMB

Only the people that go on to grad school ever really understand any of that.

[boca]

What ever happened to that guy Berwick Bay from last season, he would predict the latitude and longitude of a future storm and stick with it no matter what.

[x-y-no]

What ever happened to that guy Berwick Bay from last season, he would predict the latitude and longitude of a future storm and stick with it no matter what.

Well ... he wrote some good poetry ...

Can't say I was too impressed with his methodology when it came to predicting storm track, though.

[Stormcenter]

And this only the beginning of what will be many many threads like this is 2008.