2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[LemieT]

A bit of precautionary advice I would like to emphasize: especially now with the Atlantic inactive for the near future, there seems to be a lot of misinformation and deceiving information circulating wx social media (especially Twitter) about the hurricane season. There are some great, reliable, discussion-worthy people/accounts (Danny Morris, Andy Hazelton, Eric Webb, Levi, etc.), but there also seem to be people/accounts that strongly suggest or outwardly state something along the lines of "this El Nino will 100% shut down the entire Atlantic season" or "the SAL will reduce the sst anomalies to record breaking low temperatures" without any reliable evidence to back such claims up.

My point here is, just be mindful if you ever decide to go on Twitter or other social media trying to learn more about what's going on with hurricane season. Also, just remember Tyler Stanfield's flowchart if you're ever bored.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

Season already cancelled because El Nino is here

I thought we all knew this by now. Bret was the best the NATL had to offer. The rest will be failed PTCs and open waves from here on out.
Happy 4th to my American friends

[weeniepatrol]

I thought we all knew this by now. Bret was the best the NATL had to offer. The rest will be failed PTCs and open waves from here on out.
Happy 4th to my American friends

it's JOEVER for the Atlantic

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676565394755145728

[LarryWx]

Being that record low SAL in early June was given as per the link below as one of the major reasons (in addition to global warming) for the MDR to be at record warmth for early June, logic would suggest that this increased SAL could very well help to cool MDR anomalies down some. Let's see whether this happens.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... peratures/

What's for sure though is that unless we see some record-breaking, anomalously-strong SAL outbreaks, this could very well be a "too little, too late" situation. July is normally a SAL outbreak month that sees mitigation of MDR sst anomalies to an extent (even years like 2005, 2010, and 2017 saw this kind of event happen), so by that logic, 2023 has a chance of still being at impressive warmth levels as we enter August.

I agree that there's a good chance that the MDR SSTa will still be quite warm as of early August regardless of SAL strength as that's only 4 weeks away and global warming, which is at record levels, isn't going away (see below). What I'm wondering about is if there will be some additional reduction (perhaps a few tenths) in the anomaly between now and then. OISST and CRW have it today at a still very notable +1.2 but even these are well off the ~+1.56 anomaly of June 11th.

Regarding the global warming factor, after a record warm June worldwide, July 3rd just set a new record high of +17.01 C per this link (holy smoke!):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

So, the MDR just like other areas has record global warmth to support it. Thus, I'm not looking for the MDR's warm anomaly to disappear anytime soon as I'm just talking about anomaly reduction potential.

Followup on the contribution of the global warming factor toward the very warm MDR:

7/4/23 just came in at an astounding +17.18C on this same chart vs the previous record breaker of +17.01C on 7/3/23! The world temperature has risen a whopping 0.43C over just a three day period as it was +16.75C on 7/1/23! The world anomaly has risen 0.42C during the same period assuming this source is accurate (anyone know?):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

[jconsor]

The CFSR might update in near realtime which means its charts tend to be posted frequently on social media, but it is an inferior renalysis/atmospheric analysis product relative to ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis.

It should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Also, most of the anomalous warming n the past week in the CFSR appears to be in Antarctica. See this thread:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1676391692461547522

What's for sure though is that unless we see some record-breaking, anomalously-strong SAL outbreaks, this could very well be a "too little, too late" situation. July is normally a SAL outbreak month that sees mitigation of MDR sst anomalies to an extent (even years like 2005, 2010, and 2017 saw this kind of event happen), so by that logic, 2023 has a chance of still being at impressive warmth levels as we enter August.

I agree that there's a good chance that the MDR SSTa will still be quite warm as of early August regardless of SAL strength as that's only 4 weeks away and global warming, which is at record levels, isn't going away (see below). What I'm wondering about is if there will be some additional reduction (perhaps a few tenths) in the anomaly between now and then. OISST and CRW have it today at a still very notable +1.2 but even these are well off the ~+1.56 anomaly of June 11th.

Regarding the global warming factor, after a record warm June worldwide, July 3rd just set a new record high of +17.01 C per this link (holy smoke!):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

So, the MDR just like other areas has record global warmth to support it. Thus, I'm not looking for the MDR's warm anomaly to disappear anytime soon as I'm just talking about anomaly reduction potential.

Followup on the contribution of the global warming factor toward the very warm MDR:

7/4/23 just came in at an astounding +17.18C on this same chart vs the previous record breaker of +17.01C on 7/3/23! The world temperature has risen a whopping 0.43C over just a three day period as it was +16.75C on 7/1/23! The world anomaly has risen 0.42C during the same period assuming this source is accurate (anyone know?):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1676597815261159427

[SFLcane]

Cant really use track density maps for hurricane tracks as you can see what took place last season. Just have to be ready in what looks to be a very busy season ahead despite el nino.

[MetroMike]

Cant really use track density maps for hurricane tracks as you can see what took place last season. Just have to be ready in what looks to be a very busy season ahead despite el nino.

Yes I don't see why Andy discounts the Nino3.4 graph but agrees with the storm density tracks. You would think the two outcomes are dependent on both charts.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1676653164395913216

[cycloneye]

The Atlantic Niño.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAResearch/status/1676660848520056833

[LarryWx]

The CFSR might update in near realtime which means its charts tend to be posted frequently on social media, but it is an inferior renalysis/atmospheric analysis product relative to ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis.

It should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Also, most of the anomalous warming n the past week in the CFSR appears to be in Antarctica. See this thread:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1676391692461547522

I agree that there's a good chance that the MDR SSTa will still be quite warm as of early August regardless of SAL strength as that's only 4 weeks away and global warming, which is at record levels, isn't going away (see below). What I'm wondering about is if there will be some additional reduction (perhaps a few tenths) in the anomaly between now and then. OISST and CRW have it today at a still very notable +1.2 but even these are well off the ~+1.56 anomaly of June 11th.

Regarding the global warming factor, after a record warm June worldwide, July 3rd just set a new record high of +17.01 C per this link (holy smoke!):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

So, the MDR just like other areas has record global warmth to support it. Thus, I'm not looking for the MDR's warm anomaly to disappear anytime soon as I'm just talking about anomaly reduction potential.

Followup on the contribution of the global warming factor toward the very warm MDR:

7/4/23 just came in at an astounding +17.18C on this same chart vs the previous record breaker of +17.01C on 7/3/23! The world temperature has risen a whopping 0.43C over just a three day period as it was +16.75C on 7/1/23! The world anomaly has risen 0.42C during the same period assuming this source is accurate (anyone know?):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

I just checked ERA5 and its changes correlate strongly with CFSR daily changes. Just comparing the CFSR and ERA5 curves shows the very strong correlation between the two. The main difference appears to be that ERA5 has often been ~0.1C cooler, including the last few days. So, CFSR may be warm biased though only slightly (~0.1C) assuming ERA5 isn't cool biased. Otherwise, it appears that the daily change of CFSR for a particular date can probably be used as a pretty good proxy for the change that ERA5 later shows for the same date. Thus I feel that the daily CFSR still has value since it comes out earlier and thus can be used to predict ERA5 daily moves. And ERA5 is also at a new record high for its dataset:

ERA5:
https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF/sta ... 8458191872

CFSR:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

[JetFuel_SE]

The CFSR might update in near realtime which means its charts tend to be posted frequently on social media, but it is an inferior renalysis/atmospheric analysis product relative to ERA5 and NCEP reanalysis.

It should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Also, most of the anomalous warming n the past week in the CFSR appears to be in Antarctica. See this thread:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1676391692461547522

Followup on the contribution of the global warming factor toward the very warm MDR:

7/4/23 just came in at an astounding +17.18C on this same chart vs the previous record breaker of +17.01C on 7/3/23! The world temperature has risen a whopping 0.43C over just a three day period as it was +16.75C on 7/1/23! The world anomaly has risen 0.42C during the same period assuming this source is accurate (anyone know?):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

I just checked ERA5 and its changes correlate strongly with CFSR daily changes. Just comparing the CFSR and ERA5 curves shows the very strong correlation between the two. The main difference appears to be that ERA5 has often been ~0.1C cooler, including the last few days. So, CFSR may be warm biased though only slightly (~0.1C) assuming ERA5 isn't cool biased. Otherwise, it appears that the daily change of CFSR for a particular date can probably be used as a pretty good proxy for the change that ERA5 later shows for the same date. Thus I feel that the daily CFSR still has value since it comes out earlier and thus can be used to predict ERA5 daily moves. And ERA5 is also at a new record high for its dataset:

ERA5:
https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF/sta ... 8458191872

CFSR:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

Eh, that Ryan guy is known for being a little biased when it comes to climate change related stuff, wouldn't put too much weight on whatever he says.
On top of that, looking at just one data set is a bad idea in general.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1676653164395913216

Interesting..... and perhaps troubling. Such would imply that in spite of a building and robust El Nino, that this Atlantic season will not abruptly shut down early (end of Sept/early October) which was what I have been anticipating up to this point. If El Nino impacts were somehow shunted come the time when Climo were to kick in with typical development focused back toward the W. Caribbean (along with untapped high SST's), then this could portend a recipe for enhanced potential risk to Central America, Greater Antilles, GOM, and Bahamas (perhaps with greatest potential peril to Cuba, S. Fla., and the Bahamas). Still, I just have a hard time envisioning this to occur if we truly were having a moderate to strong El Nino evolve.

[KWT]

Worth noting that whilst it is record warm out there overall the pattern has drastically shifted over NE Atlantic recently and I think the whole E.Atlantic will cool relative to what we've had as a consequence.

Of course if we see stronger cooling in the NE Atlantic that may help focus things on the tropics.

Also worth noting the pattern currently seen and forecasted is considerably different to the long range forecasts for July over here as well...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1676972269006888962

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1676987782227525633

[SFLcane]

NE caribbean, bahamas and possibly florida. Way to close

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1676998934479400960

[ScottNAtlanta]

I know I am feeling much better about my 17/9/4 in the poll this year

[Category5Kaiju]

It’s honestly fascinating that there’s so much struggle going on to find a good analog year. Or, any years that bear any resemblance to what we are seeing now are years that occurred before many of us might have been born in

[jconsor]

While the tropical Atlantic will likely remain relatively quiet until at least the last third of the month, the overall atmospheric and oceanic pattern in the month tends to be strongly correlated to the level of activity during the rest of the season and can provide some very important clues to assess the reliability of seasonal guidance.

There has been consistency in the guidance on easterly upper-level wind anomalies prevailing much of Jul across much of the Caribbean and tropical central Atlantic, along with significant westerly anomalies at 850 mb in the MDR (as was forecast by the Copernicus multi-model ensemble - see Alex Boreham's excellent site here: https://cyclonicwx.com/models/c3s/atl/). If this verifies, it would be a strong indicator of an active season.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1676664806391050242




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1676667804056014864




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1677041687816728576




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1677048012181209089




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1677054478363533313




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1677051650555486208