2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MHC Tracking]

NHC does not bite yet.

Just another GFS modelcane. It's all by itself in predicting anything significant developing. It also has quite strong wind shear in the region.

The intensity the GFS depicts is almost certainly fantasy. The formation in itself? Given ICON and ECM have begun to latch on to a potential disturbance, with the former developing it into a weak tropical cyclone, this signal is likely more legitimate than other Caribbean GFS fantasies imo, especially given the short-range TCG it depicts. We shall see though.

[skyline385]

Dont see this happening but its always fun to watch a good modelcane

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think something will come of it. Perhaps a weak, BoC spinup like TS Danielle in 2016.

[captainbarbossa19]

I think something will come of it. Perhaps a weak, BoC spinup like TS Danielle in 2016.

Climatology favors this type of setup given the time of year, but you need the weather to cooperate too.

[MHC Tracking]

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, there is a thread now for the SW Caribbean where you can post the model runs for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2971009

[skyline385]

Didnt see the 12Z GEFS posted, the MDR activity is picking up

[Teban54]

Didnt see the 12Z GEFS posted, the MDR activity is picking up

https://i.imgur.com/vrHzmpY.png

Piggybacking on the 2-for-2 2013 matches for the first two storms (that Hazelton just tweeted), if we do get a TS in the MDR just like Chantal '13, that would make it 3-for-3

[skyline385]

Didnt see the 12Z GEFS posted, the MDR activity is picking up

https://i.imgur.com/vrHzmpY.png

Piggybacking on the 2-for-2 2013 matches for the first two storms (that Hazelton just tweeted), if we do get a TS in the MDR just like Chantal '13, that would make it 3-for-3

If that happens, Philip K will be sweating hard

[NotSparta]

Didnt see the 12Z GEFS posted, the MDR activity is picking up

https://i.imgur.com/vrHzmpY.png

lol some of these are funny to look at. Probably not a huge surprise though given that there will be some very strong waves in the MDR. A few members then overdo things

[skyline385]

More MDR members on 0Z

[kevin]

More MDR members on 0Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220613/e93b137d68020d4018be7e02491662ff.jpg

Just for historical perspective, the earliest typical MDR storm (so an east to west cruiser which slowly curves north) is the 1933 Trinitad hurricane (June 24) and Elsa (June 30) last year. If you want a traditional CV storm which originates even further east (as some of those members are suggesting) than Bertha from 2008 (July 4) is probably the earliest known example. Alice 1954 (Dec 30 - Jan 6), 1938 January hurricane (Jan 1 - Jan 6), and the 1908 March hurricane (Mar 6 - Mar 9) also all passed through the MDR, but didn't stay there for very long, followed an atypical NE track and/or didn't originate in the MDR so I wouldn't really count them as 'MDR storms' in the way that we think about them.

1933 Trinitad hurricane



Elsa



Bertha

[tolakram]

6Z GFS in fantasy range hits New Orleans again. While completely silly these long range predictions do show a level of favorability in the area. In other words, when conditions are unfavorable the GFS tends to not spin up model canes.

[captainbarbossa19]

More MDR members on 0Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220613/e93b137d68020d4018be7e02491662ff.jpg

Just for historical perspective, the earliest typical MDR storm (so an east to west cruiser which slowly curves north) is the 1933 Trinitad hurricane (June 24) and Elsa (June 30) last year. If you want a traditional CV storm which originates even further east (as some of those members are suggesting) than Bertha from 2008 (July 4) is probably the earliest known example. Alice 1954 (Dec 30 - Jan 6), 1938 January hurricane (Jan 1 - Jan 6), and the 1908 March hurricane (Mar 6 - Mar 9) also all passed through the MDR, but didn't stay there for very long, followed an atypical NE track and/or didn't originate in the MDR so I wouldn't really count them as 'MDR storms' in the way that we think about them.

1933 Trinitad hurricane

https://i.imgur.com/UM3f3Zr.png

Elsa

https://i.imgur.com/YPgaLZ0.png

Bertha

https://i.imgur.com/mptg0gi.png

Aside from hurricanes, in recent memory there is also Tropical Storm Bret (2017).

[Category5Kaiju]

So the 00z GFS apparently really hates Texas and wants to drown it later this month

[Edwards Limestone]

So the 00z GFS apparently really hates Texas and wants to drown it later this month

I'm not sure hate is right descriptor...I hope it rains 40 inches

[captainbarbossa19]

So the 00z GFS apparently really hates Texas and wants to drown it later this month

I'm not sure hate is right descriptor...I hope it rains 40 inches

Not all at once. All the water would run-off, flood homes, and not soak into the ground. Spread out those 40 inches over 20 days. 2 inches a day.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Those are some impressive wave coming off Africa. That next one that is going to come off looks very impressive for this early

[skyline385]

Those are some impressive wave coming off Africa. That next one that is going to come off looks very impressive for this early

There is some activity on the ensembles, also the active phase of the MJO is moving over the Atlantic which should help TCG

[ScottNAtlanta]

The smaller one in front actually has some spin to it.