Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Pelicane]

The operational GFS is all over the place with where something wants to concentrate in both ocean. The EPAC has a new storm in a different spot each run. The bias for the GFS to make a storm out of any convective thunderstorm is causing tons of variability. Until we get a center I think the ensembles are the best to go off of.

[Frank P]

h144 pressure 991 and a tad west of 12z looks like a reasonable model run att

[Frank P]

h150 a tad west of 12z and 1 mb lower

[DunedinDave]

So this thing is going to hang out in the Caribbean for almost another week. Are conditions that hostile down there that this thing won’t turn into anything more than a weak TS?

[Frank P]

h174 due south of mobile bay 970 mb

[3090]

h144 pressure 991 and a tad west of 12z looks like a reasonable model run att

More and more as days go by models are SOMEWHAT lining up for a hit along the Mississippi or Louisiana coast. We shall see. Still too early to have any certainty though. But it is interesting to see models consolidating some so early WITHOUT a system having formed.

[Frank P]

landfall Mobile area 972mb

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, I'm not liking the model consistency on the northern gulf today. 18z Gfs keeps it going

[Frank P]

18z GFS about 45 miles east of the 12z run

[DunedinDave]

GFS a believer of the “Florida Shield.”

[Frank P]

this is the 4th GFS run in a row that had impacts on MS, AL and FL

[Ivanhater]

We are getting under 180 hours now

[Weathertracker96]

GFS a believer of the “Florida Shield.”

There is no such thing as a Florida Shield when Debby hit this year, Idalia last year and Nicole & Ian in 2022.

Until a center forms, it’s best for all to watch.

[Steve]

Yeah that’s Pascagoula/Orange Grove/Grand Bay as a Cat 2. Trough sucks it up but it initially can’t get that far east because of ridging still in place to the East. /If/ the GFs has the upper setup right, all models were different at 12z, it’s not landfalling east of Santa Rosa County Fl (Navarre Beach or so).

[Frank P]

GFS 18z run in the GOM

[Ian2401]

tclogg showing 66% genesis probability through 168hrs. TWO should bump to at least 60% at 8pm. think they will hold off on the cherry until at least tomorrow.

[hipshot]

Climo does argue for a landfall E of 85 W. Most models that keep it in the west gulf just "orphan" it until a trough picks it up and moves it NE. There really isn't a strong steering mechanism that would take it west of the MS River imo. Not saying it's impossible, but again I'm playing the odds.

Most storms this time of year do come east of expectations, even if it's not by much. Debby made landfall in Horseshoe when it was projected near Monticello. Idalia last year was supposed to come into Wakulla/st Marks and made landfall SE of Perry. And of course Ian. The only exception to this is Michael which did not care about 20 kts of westerly shear, and came in where expected.

Those who think FL aren't in play are...misguided. I'd give FL the highest odds of being the landfall point right now. MS second, LA third, and AL fourth (because of small target)

October is the month that is the most prevelant for hurricanes landfalling in Florida.

Texas is expecting a cold front on Sunday evening or Monday and will drop the temps about 10 degrees so that will have some effect.

[gatorcane]

GFS a believer of the “Florida Shield.”

There is no such thing as a Florida Shield when Debby hit this year, Idalia last year and Nicole & Ian in 2022.

Until a center forms, it’s best for all to watch.

From his perspective in the Tampa area, it might feel like there is a shield since it has been over 100 years since that area as seen Major hurricane impacts (1921) not to mention Charley (2004) and Ian (2022) looked like shoe-in Tampa Bay hits yet somehow they hit SW Florida.

[DunedinDave]

Just wanted to look back at a point for reference so I looked at the Ian models thread 180 hours out before landfall.

The GFS had this thing just over the Yucatán and making landfall around Pensacola.

The CMC had it hitting New Orleans.

Euro was spot on.

[AtlanticWind]

It’s hard to make conclusions for a landfall made by models 8 days out
Storms (especially those not formed yet) rarely end up where the models show them
at those lead times.