Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Wampadawg]

Lifted from a Weather Tiger update…
https://i.ibb.co/ZmrG91t/IMG-2395.png

That map shows just how rare it is to get a storm in Texas this time of year.

Rare yes, impossible no

[Frank P]

GFS happy hour running now, wonder what surprises in store it has for us this run, will this be the 4th consecutive run impacting the MS/AL coastal areas ... most unlikely I say.. tbd

[Nimbus]

If convection maintains for a while this might become an invest sooner than expected.

If it gets north of the Yucatan early it will be sheared into Mexico.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[ronjon]

Lifted from a Weather Tiger update…
https://i.ibb.co/ZmrG91t/IMG-2395.png

That map shows just how rare it is to get a storm in Texas this time of year.

Yes looks like Louisiana to the Keys is the later season target zone

[ConvergenceZone]

If convection maintains for a while this might become an invest sooner than expected.

If it gets north of the Yucatan early it will be sheared into Mexico.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

and it has a long way to go before it moves to that location, so that shouldn't be a problem.

[Stratton23]

It may be hard, but texas is still very much in the cards as well, the entire gulf coast needs to watch it

[Frank P]

18Z GFS has a 1008 mb low popping up thru h45 off the coast of Nicaragua

[typhoonty]

Climo does argue for a landfall E of 85 W. Most models that keep it in the west gulf just "orphan" it until a trough picks it up and moves it NE. There really isn't a strong steering mechanism that would take it west of the MS River imo. Not saying it's impossible, but again I'm playing the odds.

Most storms this time of year do come east of expectations, even if it's not by much. Debby made landfall in Horseshoe when it was projected near Monticello. Idalia last year was supposed to come into Wakulla/st Marks and made landfall SE of Perry. And of course Ian. The only exception to this is Michael which did not care about 20 kts of westerly shear, and came in where expected.

Those who think FL aren't in play are...misguided. I'd give FL the highest odds of being the landfall point right now. MS second, LA third, and AL fourth (because of small target)

[TomballEd]

I think there is a reason NOAA/NWS and their specialty centers refer to the American GFS, the Canadian Global model and the European models. They are the best.

The NAVGEM, the replacement to the NOGAPS, is a US model but not used by anyone. I suspect even JTWC doesn't use it, and its a Navy model. Ditto the Korean. The UK Met is good on track, but is always too high on pressure and too low on wind speeds. There is a poster here who used it often, for track forecasts.

Awaiting the Happy Hour run. I use TT because I'm not currently subscribed to any model sites. I may pay again, getting the Euro an hour earlier than TT is a good thing. If I followed snowstorms, waiting until 3 am EST would be killer.

[StPeteMike]

One thing I notice from the Happy Hour GFS is the reduction in convection the EPAC. Next 48 on it will be nice to see if it it has dropped any chance of the CAG trying to spit out competing storms on both sides like previous runs.

It’s also the Happy Hour run, so…

[TomballEd]

Just looking over ensembles, and at a week out, they can change, but EPS, GEFS and GEPS mean heights and winds, NW winds look to be protecting Texas and Western Louisiana. I can see how the system could get trapped under the ridge in the shorter term and just drive W, maybe getting over the BoC, maybe not, as it heads W into mainland Mexico.

[3090]

Climo does argue for a landfall E of 85 W. Most models that keep it in the west gulf just "orphan" it until a trough picks it up and moves it NE. There really isn't a strong steering mechanism that would take it west of the MS River imo. Not saying it's impossible, but again I'm playing the odds.

Most storms this time of year do come east of expectations, even if it's not by much. Debby made landfall in Horseshoe when it was projected near Monticello. Idalia last year was supposed to come into Wakulla/st Marks and made landfall SE of Perry. And of course Ian. The only exception to this is Michael which did not care about 20 kts of westerly shear, and came in where expected.

Those who think FL aren't in play are...misguided. I'd give FL the highest odds of being the landfall point right now. MS second, LA third, and AL fourth (because of small target)

October is the month that is the most prevelant for hurricanes landfalling in Florida.

[Frank P]

certainly not in a hurry to develop thru h99

[DunedinDave]

certainly not in a hurry to develop thru h99

Not at all. 5 days out and it’s in the same exact position as now and virtually the same strength.

[Teban54]

certainly not in a hurry to develop thru h99

Not at all. 5 days out and it’s in the same exact position as now and virtually the same strength.

Looks slightly more organized than recent runs, however.

[Stormlover70]

Climo does argue for a landfall E of 85 W. Most models that keep it in the west gulf just "orphan" it until a trough picks it up and moves it NE. There really isn't a strong steering mechanism that would take it west of the MS River imo. Not saying it's impossible, but again I'm playing the odds.

Most storms this time of year do come east of expectations, even if it's not by much. Debby made landfall in Horseshoe when it was projected near Monticello. Idalia last year was supposed to come into Wakulla/st Marks and made landfall SE of Perry. And of course Ian. The only exception to this is Michael which did not care about 20 kts of westerly shear, and came in where expected.

Those who think FL aren't in play are...misguided. I'd give FL the highest odds of being the landfall point right now. MS second, LA third, and AL fourth (because of small target)

Tampa is watching " The other area that models are hinting at
development will be in the northwest Caribbean and has a 50 percent
chance of development over the next 7 days. None of these systems
pose an immediate threat to Florida, but the one in the Caribbean
will be closely monitored over the coming week.

&&

[Hurricaneman]

I hope it’s not models playing catch-up with strength and organization in the shorter term and the models are right about this taking 4 to 5 days to become a depression

[Frank P]

certainly not in a hurry to develop thru h99

Not at all. 5 days out and it’s in the same exact position as now and virtually the same strength.

I see that is close to the same position but at its not rapidly developing, taking its sweet time thru H 129 itis only just off the tip of Cuba and stronger and more a tad east of the 12z with 995mb pressure..

[Frank P]

h 138 big jump to the NW with 991 mb..

[StPeteMike]

One thing I notice from the Happy Hour GFS is the reduction in convection the EPAC. Next 48 on it will be nice to see if it it has dropped any chance of the CAG trying to spit out competing storms on both sides like previous runs.

It’s also the Happy Hour run, so…

Spoke too soon, still has a competing EPAC system from the CAG…