2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Blown Away]

El Niño Augusts have produced legendary canes. The extreme SST’s may fuel a hyper active August before the El Niño shear shuts down September on. JMHO

[Category5Kaiju]

El Niño Augusts have produced legendary canes. The extreme SST’s may fuel a hyper active August before the El Niño shear shuts down September on. JMHO

Indeed.

1899:


1951:


1965:


1969:


All of these were in El Nino years and formed in the month of August.

[weeniepatrol]

In terms of actual temperatures the mdr has only cooled about 0.2C. It’s just that since climo is quick warming this time of year, this cooling manifests on anomaly charts as a far larger decrease.

[aspen]

I believe June 2023 has set a record for the highest ACE in any June, but if Cindy regenerates like pretty much every model is saying, then this season could further crush that record. ~10 ACE is on the table if Cindy becomes a Cat 1 in the subtropics.

[LarryWx]

With the likely help from Bret and Cindy taking energy out of the very warm ocean, much of the MDR has cooled off nicely from an anomaly perspective over the last week though that may not be the primary reason.

[LarryWx]

More on the above post. The CDAS based MDR has cooled from whatever causes (combo of increased SAL off of record lows and Bret/Cindy?) from an anomaly of +1.2 C on June 13th to only +0.6 C on June 25th:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

This matters quite a bit, especially with the strong El Niño developing as it may allow it to take more control and not have as much interference from keeping things from getting out of hand in the Atlantic.

[aspen]

More on the above post. The CDAS based MDR has cooled from whatever causes (combo of increased SAL off of record lows and Bret/Cindy?) from an anomaly of +1.2 C on June 13th to only +0.6 C on June 25th:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

This matters quite a bit, especially with the strong El Niño developing as it may allow it to take more control and not have as much interference from keeping things from getting out of hand in the Atlantic.

CDAS has a low bias. The better CRW and OISS SSTA maps on cyclonicwx (the latter of which was corrected last year) shows that the MDR has cooled to a still insane +1.0-1.2 C. A strong +AMO look still remains, and there’s still a ton of warmth in the Canary Current and NE Atlantic that could end up working its way back south. If those warm pools noticeably cool/return to normal over the next few weeks, then the odds of the +ENSO winning dramatically increase.

[Category5Kaiju]

The insanely warm sst anomalies in the Atlantic might be one very convincing factor pointing to a non-traditional El Niño season in the Atlantic.

However, it is important to note that between the -PMM/-PDO in the EPAC and a potent WAM expected over Africa, there are some other key factors that point toward the possibility of the Atlantic performing better than would be expected even in the face of an El Niño.

[jconsor]

I strongly advise caution when using CDAS SST charts to gauge trends in the tropical Atlanitc. It is known to have a substantial cold bias, especially during times of SAL surges which block its ability to properly assess SSTs.

OISST agrees with CDAS on a 0.35 to 0.4C drop in MDR SSTs between Jun 11 and 17, but shows little change (at most a 0.05C drop) from Jun 17 to 24. On the other hand, CDAS shows a further 0.35 to 0.4C drop from Jun 17 to 24.




You can see in these OISST anomaly images that the notable drop occurred between Jun 11 and 17. From Jun 17 to 23 there was little change overall, some slight cooling E of 40W and some slight warming from the central tropical Atlantic into the E and NW Caribbean.





The fact that CDAS is not listed in the UCAR repository of SST datasets, and is almost never referenced in academic literature about water temperatures (based on a quick search I did on Google Scholar) should also be red flags.

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/clima ... ison-table

More on the above post. The CDAS based MDR has cooled from whatever causes (combo of increased SAL off of record lows and Bret/Cindy?) from an anomaly of +1.2 C on June 13th to only +0.6 C on June 25th:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

This matters quite a bit, especially with the strong El Niño developing as it may allow it to take more control and not have as much interference from keeping things from getting out of hand in the Atlantic.

[LarryWx]

The insanely warm sst anomalies in the Atlantic might be one very convincing factor pointing to a non-traditional El Niño season in the Atlantic.

However, it is important to note that between the -PMM/-PDO in the EPAC and a potent WAM expected over Africa, there are some other key factors that point toward the possibility of the Atlantic performing better than would be expected even in the face of an El Niño.

We all know it has already been much more active than normal for June in the MDR with a record high level of activity due largely to record warm MDR anomalies/record low SAL for June. But the big question now is whether or not that will continue if El Niño strengthens substantially the rest of the summer. The MDR anomalies have cooled 0.4 to 0.45 to ~+1.15 over the last two weeks per CRW and OISST. Still very warm but a loss of ~25% of the anomaly. Let's see where those anomalies go between now and the start of climo peak season.

[LarryWx]

I strongly advise caution when using CDAS SST charts to gauge trends in the tropical Atlanitc. It is known to have a substantial cold bias, especially during times of SAL surges which block its ability to properly assess SSTs.

OISST agrees with CDAS on a 0.35 to 0.4C drop in MDR SSTs between Jun 11 and 17, but shows little change (at most a 0.05C drop) from Jun 17 to 24. On the other hand, CDAS shows a further 0.35 to 0.4C drop from Jun 17 to 24.

https://i.ibb.co/HGXdmYx/OISST-MDR-SST-graph.png
https://i.ibb.co/Jz40LhF/CDAS-MDR-SST-graph.png

You can see in these OISST anomaly images that the notable drop occurred between Jun 11 and 17. From Jun 17 to 23 there was little change overall, some slight cooling E of 40W and some slight warming from the central tropical Atlantic into the E and NW Caribbean.

https://i.ibb.co/tqwHbFJ/oisst-anom-1d-tropatl-2023061100.png
https://i.ibb.co/MMqrxg4/oisst-anom-1d-tropatl-2023061700.png
https://i.ibb.co/Sv6vC33/oisst-anom-1d-tropatl-2023062300.png

The fact that CDAS is not listed in the UCAR repository of SST datasets, and is almost never referenced in academic literature about water temperatures (based on a quick search I did on Google Scholar) should also be red flags.

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/clima ... ison-table

More on the above post. The CDAS based MDR has cooled from whatever causes (combo of increased SAL off of record lows and Bret/Cindy?) from an anomaly of +1.2 C on June 13th to only +0.6 C on June 25th:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

This matters quite a bit, especially with the strong El Niño developing as it may allow it to take more control and not have as much interference from keeping things from getting out of hand in the Atlantic.

For the MDR SST anomalies, I'll emphasize CRW and OISST from now on (via cyclonicwx) and will deemphasize CDAS. I look at all three for the Nino regions.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just realized Danny Morris recently sent out this Tweet about the expected activity in the EPAC. I don't want to speculate about the future too much at this point in time. However, I can't help but start to wonder if we're about to see a reverse of last year's setup, with the Atlantic overperforming and the EPAC underperforming in spite of an ENSO state traditionally favorable for the EPAC and detrimental for the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1672933952175185921

[LarryWx]

For years with Niño 3.4 of +1.0+ during JJA, here are the # of June/July geneses on record:

2015: 1/1
1997: 2/3
1987: 0/0
1972: 1/0
1965: 1/0
1957: 2/0
1905: 0/0
1902: 2/0
1877: 0/0

Average # of June/July geneses on record: 1.00/0.44.

Does this imply the chances are good for a quieter July vs June in terms of # of storms? (I'm not talking about strength). Any opinions?

Edit: Yes, I know that four of these years were before satellites.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1673294639468810240

[cycloneye]

Looks like El NIño slowly catching on to affect the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1673426604616454144

[Teban54]

Webb continues to think the atmospheric response isn't typical of an El Nino so far.
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1673485132572033024

[toad strangler]

Brett and Cindy gave the Atlantic an ACE kickstart. Does the line stay ahead of the median all the way through? A tough task it will be as we all know with our newly crowned El Nino. All of those lines on the graph represent North Atlantic Basin seasons starting in 1966.

[LarryWx]

In the MDR, OISST SSTa cooled rather notably from +1.19 on 6/26 to +1.123 today. CRW cooled slightly from +1.15 to +1.128. The strongly cold biased/less reliable CDAS cooled over the last 2 days from 0.594 on 6/25 to 0.440 today. The CDAS is so cold biased that I'm now only paying attention to the changes and not the actual per se.

[Category5Kaiju]

With the Atlantic catching a break from activity and the EPAC getting more active, it looks like wx Twitter has become a battlefield between those who believe that this Atlantic season is going to defy norms with the insane +AMO and -PDO look in the Pacific and those who believe the El Nino is going to single-handedly shut down the Atlantic.

Gonna be an interesting several months to watch for sure

[toad strangler]

I like reading Michael Lowry's content and today he is talking about how the MDR has cooled and will continue to do so for a bit but the SAL that has come on board is rather underwhelming for the time of year. The subtropical high won't just come roaring back so the future trend he believes is for elevated SST's to stick around.