2015 EPAC Season

[CaliforniaResident]

A tropical wave located south of the southeastern coast of Mexico
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. An area of low
pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave within a
couple of days a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions should support development later
this week, and the system is very likely to become a tropical
cyclone by Sunday while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Do you think this one will take a path more similar to Blanca/Dolores (up Baja's coast to drop some remnants on California) or to Guillermo/Hilda (to threaten Hawaii at some point) or be a total fish storm with no effects whatsoever on populated land?

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located south of the southeastern coast of Mexico
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. An area of low
pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave within a
couple of days a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions should support development later
this week, and the system is very likely to become a tropical
cyclone by Sunday while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Do you think this one will take a path more similar to Blanca/Dolores (up Baja's coast to drop some remnants on California) or to Guillermo/Hilda (to threaten Hawaii at some point) or be a total fish storm with no effects whatsoever on populated land?

I'd favor the third but arguably the top global model (GFS) has no grip on this.

[Ntxw]

Yeah to say EPAC hasn't produced is an injustice, this time last year ACE was around 87-90. As Yellow Evan said we are near 100. 2014 seemed continuous with multiple storms overlapping, while 2015 seems singular storms bombing out and waiting in between.

To note though around this time last year we had Karina that wouldn't die and of course Marie was getting her act together.

This basin has spoiled us and we can't expect record pace all the time.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah to say EPAC hasn't produced is an injustice, this time last year ACE was around 87-90. As Yellow Evan said we are near 100. 2014 seemed continuous with multiple storms overlapping, while 2015 seems singular storms bombing out and waiting in between.

To note though around this time last year we had Karina that wouldn't die and of course Marie was getting her act together.

This basin has spoiled us and we can't expect record pace all the time.

Also keep in mind 2015 is what will likely go down as a Super El Nino year. Those aren't always the most active hurricane seasons. Weak traditional El Ninos or even neutrals following El Ninos tend to be more active.

Best comparisons for 2015 from here on out are 1983 and 1997 as both had very strong Nino forcing. I think September could be a month to remember given that both 1983 and 1997 had very busy Septembers, and that is where 1972, another strong El Nino revived itself. In the EPAC, generally, September is when conditions are the most conducive shear and SST wise, but the Atlantic often steals tropical waves. This won't be an issue this year. OVerall, I think we'll get about ~21ish storms, and around 7 major hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan.When will Baja California/Coast of Mexico will see a threat as after Blanca nothing else has move close? By September/October?

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan.When will Baja California/Coast of Mexico will see a threat as after Blanca nothing else has move close? By September/October?

Usually by late August/early September. I'm starting to see some hints in longer time frames of the typical seasonal pattern change that favors MX threats.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A tropical wave located south of the southeastern coast of Mexico
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low
pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave within a
couple of days a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions should support development by later
this week, and a tropical cyclone will likely form late this weekend
or early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Kingarabian]

Can't really complain about this season. Especially when we've already had 2 legit basin crossers that have threatened Hawaii. Hawaii threats coming from the EPAC are much more impressive than the usual Mexico threats.

We've also had the usual EPAC storms that defied wind shear and dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

Can't really complain about this season. Especially when we've already had 2 legit basin crossers that have threatened Hawaii. Hawaii threats coming from the EPAC are much more impressive than the usual Mexico threats.

We've also had the usual EPAC storms that defied wind shear and dry air.

2015 was pretty much doomed to disappoint as expectations were through the roof coming off of 2014. With El Nino intensifying, what we're getting is about what I expected, given how the most active seasons on record usually aren't super El Ninos (1982 was a weak traditional event that didn't get going until fall). Sure I was pissed during Blanca and Carlos, but overall the EPAC has recovered the past month.

[Kingarabian]

It's going to be tough to get storms though. Atlantic has been a death bed for those tropical waves. Can't even compare it to 1997. It's much drier than that.

So the EPAC needs some 'homebrew'. But no MJO means more reliance on an active MT or something spinning off the ICTZ. Maybe that's why Guillermo and Hilda's origins have all been typically low in longitude.

[Kingarabian]

An unusual amount of hurricane activity for Hawaii in recent years
An unusually high number of tropical storms and hurricane have roamed the waters near Hawaii over the past three years. This year, there has been Guillermo and Hilda, last year had Iselle and Julio, and 2013 had Flossie. Since 1949, 22 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) have passed within 150 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, an average of one tropical cyclone every three years. So, to have three tropical cyclones (four if we count Hilda) pass so close in three years (see Figure 2) is an unusual amount of activity. Part of the blame for the activity can be placed on unusually warm sea surface temperatures: these temperatures were warmest on record for the waters south and east of Hawaii this summer, and were also well above average in 2014. It is also possible that we are seeing the beginning of a shift in the tracks of the Eastern Pacific hurricanes due to climate change, though it is too early to say. In my August 2014 blog post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes, I reported on a study done last year which projected a doubling or tripling of the number of hurricanes affecting Hawaii by the end of the century, due to climate change.

-Dr Jeff Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3069

[Yellow Evan]

It's going to be tough to get storms though. Atlantic has been a death bed for those tropical waves. Can't even compare it to 1997. It's much drier than that.

So the EPAC needs some 'homebrew'. But no MJO means more reliance on an active MT or something spinning off the ICTZ. Maybe that's why Guillermo and Hilda's origins have all been typically low in longitude.

Well if climo is correct the waves become more vigorus in late August/early Sep, so if lack of waves is a problem, it's not likely to get worse in the short-term.

Low lat storms like Guillermo and Hilda are common in El Ninos at least partially due to the fact in El Nino years, the ITCZ is more south due to the warmth of region Nino 1+2, which presents high pressure buildup that lifts the ITCZ more north.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south and southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with
a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in
association with this wave within a couple of days, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Kingarabian]

It's going to be tough to get storms though. Atlantic has been a death bed for those tropical waves. Can't even compare it to 1997. It's much drier than that.

So the EPAC needs some 'homebrew'. But no MJO means more reliance on an active MT or something spinning off the ICTZ. Maybe that's why Guillermo and Hilda's origins have all been typically low in longitude.

Well if climo is correct the waves become more vigorus in late August/early Sep, so if lack of waves is a problem, it's not likely to get worse in the short-term.

Low lat storms like Guillermo and Hilda are common in El Ninos at least partially due to the fact in El Nino years, the ITCZ is more south due to the warmth of region Nino 1+2, which presents high pressure buildup that lifts the ITCZ more north.

Some of the waves coming off Africa have looked really impressive until they touched Atlantic water.

[Yellow Evan]

It's going to be tough to get storms though. Atlantic has been a death bed for those tropical waves. Can't even compare it to 1997. It's much drier than that.

So the EPAC needs some 'homebrew'. But no MJO means more reliance on an active MT or something spinning off the ICTZ. Maybe that's why Guillermo and Hilda's origins have all been typically low in longitude.

Well if climo is correct the waves become more vigorus in late August/early Sep, so if lack of waves is a problem, it's not likely to get worse in the short-term.

Low lat storms like Guillermo and Hilda are common in El Ninos at least partially due to the fact in El Nino years, the ITCZ is more south due to the warmth of region Nino 1+2, which presents high pressure buildup that lifts the ITCZ more north.

Some of the waves coming off Africa have looked really impressive until they touched Atlantic water.

That's not a first. I saw it in 2014 as well as when I've looked at sat pics of the 80s and 90s. Sure, it's been worse this year than any year before, but I'm not convinced the lack of good waves in the ATL is holding the basin yet.

[galaxy401]

A disturbance off the coast of Mexico is at 50% yet it seems to not be an invest yet. Odd.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, have been increasing in coverage since yesterday
but remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
a tropical cyclone to form from this system over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Berg

[Hurricaneman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, have been increasing in coverage since yesterday
but remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
a tropical cyclone to form from this system over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Berg

is now 94E

[CrazyC83]

July and August typically aren't big months for recurving storms though. Come later in the season I'd be more concerned about landfalls in Mexico (and yes, even California possibly).

[Kingarabian]

Euro shows Jimena in 10 days.

GFS has nothing, 16 days out.