Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[RL3AO]

Operational ACE in August of 1.75

The levels of inactivity is starting to become as intriguing as tracking an actual storm.

[Ntxw]

We continue the fall to 25% of normal ACE. Will we fall below 20% nearing the peak of Hurricane season? It's possible with no realistic large storm shown by models within the next 5 days. Mind boggling.

[tolakram]

instability spiked and the MJO is here and absolutely nothing.

Actually this is not true yet. Current MJO analysis shows it still stuck near the EPAC.



Nothing much will change, in my opinion, until this starts to make a move.

[ninel conde]

maybe it wont move

[CrazyC83]

I'd laugh at this point if we can get all the way to October with nothing much, then have a November monster or two wreck everything...

[CrazyC83]

Look at the concentration of shear in the MDR, like a brick wall (split jet stream pattern?)

Given that, any development would have to likely take place in the Gulf or the subtropical Atlantic. Most likely, from non-tropical sources, since tropical waves are being torn apart before they can get there, or are stuck on the shear axis.

[Hurricaneman]

Look at the concentration of shear in the MDR, like a brick wall (split jet stream pattern?)

Given that, any development would have to likely take place in the Gulf or the subtropical Atlantic. Most likely, from non-tropical sources, since tropical waves are being torn apart before they can get there, or are stuck on the shear axis.

Looking at this and if one didn't look at the ENSO you would think it was an El Nino with the shear pattern currently

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

very el nino like

[HurricaneRyan]

This season could always pull out an Opal.

[Steve]

Watched Bastard's video this morning. If he is right about the pattern in mid-September, and I think he is close, the potential for multiple continental hits in the next few weeks would be there. What happens is a strong trough comes into the SE US but it is transient. As it lifts out, strong ridging builds over top in eastern Canada (his Newfoundland Wheel). IMHO, this has been telegraphed by the warm ssta's off New England and eastern Canada, so the pattern reversal in that region should happen. What will be particularly important is for how long that pattern establishes itself. If it is a week and done, it's not going to be that big of a deal. But if it is semi-permanent (say 3ish or more weeks) then the SE US coast would be in danger. Obviously there are no guarantees that anything tropical would be on the map. So all this has to be taken with a grain of salt. But if the energy is there, my ideas of ultimately a season with a spray of 3 hits between MS and NC followed by eroding of the Atlantic ridge (fronts and tropics chipping it away) and a potential impact for Bermuda/Eastern Canada could be close. Everyone should follow the WPAC as the ridge teleconnections this year have been strong. If there are any named storms there after the current recurve around western Japan, follow the tracks on the jtwc site for clues 6-10 days following.

This post is not official and is not meant to hype the season. It is solely my opinion.

[Ntxw]

I think the pattern shift for less recurves is well documented by the experts and pro mets (think wxman57 and bastardi). The million dollar question is can we get a storm to go instead of being squashed, that has been the problem with these waves. Step 1 is to get a storm before we worry about hits to the US.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi is making a MAJOR tropical post tonight. stay tuned!!

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 35m

MJO: what suppresses in August may not in September.. Will explain tonight. Have to eat with family first. In RI with all my relatives
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 36m

Doing major post tonight or tomorrow morning on not only global tropic dry air, but cool indian ocean and MJO as causes. MJO big part too
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 37m

Everyone jumping on dry air bandwagon which http://Weatherbell.com followers know has been my mantra so far. Long term still may be nasty

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to note that those late blooming seasons produced some whopper storms.

I notice that late blooming seasons are very dangerous and deadly.

[Cyclenall]

This tweet by NHC forecaster Blake says it all.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 8h
@RyanMaue well on our way to at least the 4th latest 1st hurricane of the Atlc season. No MH in WHemi latest since 81. Ugly

That's a good tweet, does sum things up. I never thought of the Western Hemisphere as being completely major-free but the Epac and Atlantic are really the only basins in there so its the same. The tweet also confirms my date of 1981 as being the last time the WHemi was major free at this point. Ugly is an understatement, you could also use tropical-soul-crushing.

Operational ACE in August of 1.75

The levels of inactivity is starting to become as intriguing as tracking an actual storm.

Agreed. Its already going to be a key feature of study this year re: August ACE during cool-neutral conditions. 1997 had no TC's during August but 2 hurricanes in July...5 named storms up to this point. What will be incredibly puzzling to researchers is why the African wave train was so active and potent in late June and parts of July and TC's were forming in the deep tropics...indicative every time of huge activity later in the season, only to have nothing of the sort afterwards. I don't know if this has ever happened before.

This season could always pull out an Opal.

I'm drawing on this. Opal occurred during the 1995 hurricane season which is nothing compared to this one. Opal can occur in any non-El Nino season. Maybe this November will have 10X the ACE of the record holder for November ACE, that type of back-log could occur. I question however the realistic possibly of a US major hurricane landfall during November. Cuba? Sure.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My thoughts so far, as we near the half way point, it has frankly sucked. It has been extremely boring, with not even any well defined fish to track.

[HurricaneBill]

Hasn't the WPAC been below normal in terms of ACE this season? I wonder if this could be like 1977. That year was rather inactive in the Atlantic, EPAC, and WPAC. However, the Atlantic did produce a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf. (Hurricane Anita)

[HurricaneRyan]

Well we know one thing. The chances of a hurricane are bigger than Miley Cyrus's butt

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well we know one thing. The chances of a hurricane are bigger than Miley Cyrus's butt

Indeed, what a revolting, degenerate, individual.

[gigabite]

Although an 1992 Andrew is always in the cards, I am not sure the total storm count is going to make it to 15.

[cycloneye]

Ok,let's not get derailed by off topic things and stay on topic,thanks.