Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[AutoPenalti]

I can't stay up for the Euro, it's not worth staying up an extra hour and a half so I can watch a Low-Resolution frail Tropical wave scrape the South American Coastline

Who knows maybe it could change and show a cat5 hurricane slam into Miami. Maybe it gets a hint of what the gfs is seeing.

Highly doubt it, but we'll see.

[Brent]

Where can I see the GFS run of this thing skirting the gulf coast?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0 start here and press the play button at the top

[SCUBAdude]

Thanks!

[AtlanticWind]

GFS wants to go with a bang

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a
tropical wave. Some gradual development is possible through the
week while this system moves westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Brent]

Euro says what storm through 72 hours. GFS has Don by then.

[Cpv17]

I'm kind of an amateur when it comes to this model watching thing, but the difference between the GFS and Euro right now is crazy in my amateur opinion. I've certainly never seen anything like it before.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro has a stronger reflection of the wave at 96 hour s compared to last night's run at least

[Ivanhater]

Nada at 120....this is going to look really bad on one of these models

[Kingarabian]

00Z Euro has a stronger reflection of the wave at 96 hour s compared to last night's run at least

Weaker through 96hrs I believe:

00z Euro:

12z Euro:

[Kingarabian]

That's why I'm iterating to consider the GFS Parallels solution since its a fair mean between the two models.

[Ivanhater]

Comparing to last night's 00z run King Splitting hairs at this point though

[Kingarabian]

Comparing to last night's 00z run King Splitting hairs at this point though

Ooh. Just realized I have a different timezone than most folks.

[Dylan]

How am I supposed to believe the ECMWF when it doesn't initalize the wave correctly? Latest 850mb vorticity maps from CIMSSS show a decent area of vorticity associated with what is soon to become 95L. The GFS initialized this decently, showing a similar situation. The European has almost no concentration of 850mb vort like the GFS & latest satellite derived maps from CIMSS show. The GFS might be on to something.

[Ivanhater]

That's why I'm iterating to consider the GFS Parallels solution since its a fair mean between the two models.

Not a bad idea...Gfs is very consistent though. .enough to cause pause...Good early season test for the models if nothing else...

[Kingarabian]

How am I supposed to believe the ECMWF when it doesn't initalize the wave correctly? Latest 850mb vorticity maps from CIMSSS show a decent area of vorticity associated with what is soon to become 95L. The GFS initialized this decently, showing a similar situation. The European has almost no concentration of 850mb vort like the GFS & latest satellite derived maps from CIMSS show. The GFS might be on to something.

It's not that impressive on satellite in all reality compared to when it first splashed down. So depth of the vort is all subjective by the models.

[Kingarabian]

That's why I'm iterating to consider the GFS Parallels solution since its a fair mean between the two models.

Not a bad idea...Gfs is very consistent though. .enough to cause pause...Good early season test for the models if nothing else...

Agreed.

[Dylan]

How am I supposed to believe the ECMWF when it doesn't initalize the wave correctly? Latest 850mb vorticity maps from CIMSSS show a decent area of vorticity associated with what is soon to become 95L. The GFS initialized this decently, showing a similar situation. The European has almost no concentration of 850mb vort like the GFS & latest satellite derived maps from CIMSS show. The GFS might be on to something.

It's not that impressive on satellite in all reality compared to when it first splashed down. So depth of the vort is all subjective by the models.

That happens all of the time. Satellite presentation is a moot point at this time. What we do have is satelite data, and the GFS has the best initialization based on the data. How are we to blame the ECMWF if it's being fed garbage? I'd post the image because it's clear as day, but I'm on my phone.

[Kingarabian]

How am I supposed to believe the ECMWF when it doesn't initalize the wave correctly? Latest 850mb vorticity maps from CIMSSS show a decent area of vorticity associated with what is soon to become 95L. The GFS initialized this decently, showing a similar situation. The European has almost no concentration of 850mb vort like the GFS & latest satellite derived maps from CIMSS show. The GFS might be on to something.

It's not that impressive on satellite in all reality compared to when it first splashed down. So depth of the vort is all subjective by the models.

That happens all of the time. Satellite presentation is a moot point at this time. What we do have is satelite data, and the GFS has the best initialization based on the data. How are we to blame the ECMWF if it's being fed garbage? I'd post the image because it's clear as day, but I'm on my phone.

The high resolution Euro at 6hrs has an identical vort depth as the GFS. So I'm assuming it has the right information.

What we should question is if all the models have the same RH information.

[Ivanhater]

Off topic..but ex td4 trending a bit stronger on the Euro coming into the northern gulf coast..that may need to be watched down the road