2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

I don’t think it stays quiet behind ERIN, a kelvin wave will be moving across the basin which should help to boost the waves behind ERIN, doesnt look insanely busy, but definitely not dead quiet either

[convergencezone2]

There be a 98L/Fernand after Erin, which will also almost immediately recurve. Might be another after that. Maybe.

After that, anything would probably be 'home brew'. I see the random systems closer to the US but ensembles usually manage to get a random storm forecast Famous last words but I think the tropics will be quiet the next two weeks

Hoping we do get major hurricane satellite imagery from Erin and any possible MDR storm that may follow in its foot steps.

Even if every single one of these storms coming off Africa does recurve due to weak high pressure, I think we will still get a couple of storms by the end of September / October that will develop in either the Gulf or the Carib that will pose an actual landfall threat.

[TomballEd]

There be a 98L/Fernand after Erin, which will also almost immediately recurve. Might be another after that. Maybe.

After that, anything would probably be 'home brew'. I see the random systems closer to the US but ensembles usually manage to get a random storm forecast Famous last words but I think the tropics will be quiet the next two weeks

Hoping we do get major hurricane satellite imagery from Erin and any possible MDR storm that may follow in its foot steps.

Even if every single one of these storms coming off Africa does recurve due to weak high pressure, I think we will still get a couple of storms by the end of September / October that will develop in either the Gulf or the Carib that will pose an actual landfall threat.

I don't doubt that. Late season storms affecting Florida seems to have become very common.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The euro weeklies is showing well above normal ace in the short term (largely due to Erin), however, this is predicted to quickly fall off. The first half of September is predicted to be below normal, this is likely due to the mjo becoming unfavorable for the basin by then.