Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[boca]

I was going to cancel my trip to the Keys next weekend but I’m glad I didn’t but I’m not going to say all clear but all the models say Cuba and Bahamas as of today and I think they are nailing down to track since it hasn’t really changed the one time on the GFS18z which was trash.

94L ultimately saves the day. Big powerful hurricane there keeping the ridge from building. Enjoy your trip in the keys

Thanks I haven’t been down there since pre covid days.

[aspen]

The 12z GFS has an odd genesis of Zeta. It starts out with a nice small area of spin on Tuesday but concentrates vorticity on the NE side, and then later concentrates it again on the NE side of that. If it actually concentrates in the center of spin, it would have a lot more time over water.

[blp]

Not yet! Getting left behind this run.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1317502144166187009

[SFLcane]

Not yet! Getting left behind this run.

Heading west wow

[SFLcane]

Um gfs what are you doing?!!!

[SFLcane]

This is nuts lol..

[SouthFLTropics]

This just shows that the pattern when it gets north of Cuba is too uncertain at this time. Too many variables in play and nothing is off the table yet.


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[SouthFLTropics]

I still say a blend of the two different scenarios is most likely. A track out of the Caribbean much like Matthew is definitely a possibility.


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[boca]

Maybe this is a garbage run like last nights GFS18z.This run is nothing like this morning’s run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Florida west coast is going to get slammed on this run...front coming in from the west.


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[SFLcane]

Might wanna hold off on your trip to the keys Boca!

[blp]

Seems possible. Any delay exiting Carribean will cause it to get trapped. Remember this is not a trough picking it out but a system hundreds of miles NE, so I think there is a lot of uncertainty once north of Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

With the players it is showing on the board, this run actually makes sense. 94L weakens the ridge enough to bring it out of the Caribbean but then leaves it behind. Strong front across the Rockies enhances the ridge on the eastern seaboard and sends it west. The front then sweeps in and should pull it back NE out of the GOM.


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[Hypercane_Kyle]

These are some wild track shifts, even for 10 days out tbh. Zeta's development will hinge greatly on the development of Epsilon out by Bermuda.

[CourierPR]

All those who have been overusing the words eject, ejecting may have to come up with a new word.

[Fancy1001]

All those who have been overusing the words eject, ejecting may have to come up with a new word.

Expunging

[shaneomac]

Looks like there will be a "storm" where it goes is anyone's guess , based on experience when you in the bulleye 10 days out it never ends up right lol , my guess as of now a pattern favors a North track of Cuba , kinda reminds me of "Matthew" pattern if my memory is right , remember Matthew here it merged with a system here and got the strongest winds and heaviest rain we ever had within 24 hours ! complete flooding/wind damage , fun model watching ahead .

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 300 hours...it should turn back NE shortly and slam the Florida west coast. Watch out Tampa.


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[MarioProtVI]

With the players it is showing on the board, this run actually makes sense. 94L weakens the ridge enough to bring it out of the Caribbean but then leaves it behind. Strong front across the Rockies enhances the ridge on the eastern seaboard and sends it west. The front then sweeps in and should pull it back NE out of the GOM.

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Nope, seems to be identical to 18z yesterday in which the front doesn’t seem to catch it in time and ends up leaving it behind, with a building ridge north of it sending it south towards the Yucatan.