Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[toad strangler]

Just an example of how consistent has been the GFS. Here what the model had forecasted for October 3 at 18z.

We are talking about 300+ hours here. Of course you are going to see windshield wiping like this. Now show me any modeling this far out that falls in line run to run and I will be impressed! Regardless of verification.

[RickM]

My first post...

Damn, knowing the ramifications, my wife booked a trip to Grand Cayman September 28-October 6. A lot cheaper, obviously. Here's hoping this thing spins off into the Atlantic!

Lol. I was on the beach down there March 2013 on a cruise that basically sailed around Cuba. It stopped on Grand Cayman and in Ocho Rios. There was a hung up front most of the week that rippled back and forth but kept everything grey, and depending on what side of it we were on at any given moment it was either cloudy and cool or cloudy and mild. And the water was still cold. So we sat on the beach at Royal Palms with suck weather. I guess at least it wasn't a hurricane.

You still going?

Thinking about just going a few days instead of the full 7.

Grand Cayman definitely has some cool weather. First time I ever saw a funnel cloud was down there.

Worst weather I ever experienced there was it seems to shower between 5am-6am every morning. Otherwise absolutely perfect.

[PTrackerLA]

I remember Lili in 2002 was declared as being the strongest hurricane so far west in the GOM that late in the season on record. The latest GFS run would absolutely obliterate that record which is why I don't put much stock in runs like that. However, everyone remember Sandy? Never say never but there's a ton of dramatic model runs ahead I'm afraid, buckle up folks!

[gatorcane]

Not that it means anything considering its lower tier status but the NAVGEM is finally picking up on development.

http://i.imgur.com/m0SfUV2.png

And even more bullish on the 18Z run:

[tolakram]

Just an example of how consistent has been the GFS. Here what the model had forecasted for October 3 at 18z.

That's not a good example since it goes too far out, which is why I included the trend in a zone all models generally do better in and then compared consistency to the euro. I think most people understand the model accuracy started out very high and then fades as the run goes further out into the future, right? Showing >190 hours of any model is fantasy at best, but that's just my opinion.

Here's a 20 frame GFS trend starting with the latest run at hour 114.

[gatorcane]

Great consensus in the GFS ensembles up to 192hr truncation. Better than the 12z. In the long range the ensembles have shifted further East.

18z
http://i.imgur.com/tLNTyEO.png

12z
http://i.imgur.com/uC77WcO.png

Only one 18Z GFS ensemble heads west across the Gulf and it ends up in Mexico. The rest are much more east of the GFS operational and more in line with climo. Not only that but the ensembles are showing a strong system. Good thing it is all long-range and will likely (hopefully) change a lot.

[RL3AO]

I'm a big fan of looking at the trends of the model in the day 5 to 8 range and then closer to the current time.

Last 12 model runs valid 5 days from now is converging on a fairly stout system near the islands.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: "Never say never in the tropics"

I agree. I prefer to say things like "extremely unlikely" or 1-2% chance, etc., even if something similar has not occurred on record. I'm not referring to Pouch 39L when I say this. I mean in general.

I think there are better odds of me winning a billion dollar multi-state powerball than the gfs coming close to verifying.

[GeneratorPower]

:uarrow: "Never say never in the tropics"

I agree. I prefer to say things like "extremely unlikely" or 1-2% chance, etc., even if something similar has not occurred on record. I'm not referring to Pouch 39L when I say this. I mean in general.

I think there are better odds of me winning a billion dollar multi-state powerball than the gfs coming close to verifying.

Obviously statistics is not your strong suit.

[Steve]

I remember Lili in 2002 was declared as being the strongest hurricane so far west in the GOM that late in the season on record. The latest GFS run would absolutely obliterate that record which is why I don't put much stock in runs like that. However, everyone remember Sandy? Never say never but there's a ton of dramatic model runs ahead I'm afraid, buckle up folks!

Yeah it's likely to be a crazy week with hard moderation, freaking out people and everyone but the mets being as non-productive otherwise as possible at work staring at satellite loops, models, posts - having tons of tabs or windows open and being slightly on edge/jacked up/nervous/lacking sleep....

One thing that I'm going to throw out there is that if reality starts favoring a GFS type solution with the potential of a major in the Gulf (even if ultimately fading at landfall) wobble wars will get replaced by "you can have its." Haha. Obviously this could be nothing, but it's not every hurricane season day where anyone interested is staring down the possibility of a big hit. Back in 02, 03, 04, 05 here and on CFHC [tm], and then 2008 and 2010 here, there were legitimate reasons to be apprehensive. Who knows? I just hope everyone who is on here or reads if not active stays ahead of the curve over the public at large.

[hurricanehunter69]

Time to start tracking on Mimic. Looks like a future storm to me. Could this be the beginning of a horrific monster? hmmm http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[StormClouds63]

The projected path of Isidore (2002) before it stalled over the Yucatan Peninsula is somewhat similar to the latest GFS run. It eventually did get pulled to the north, but at a much weaker state. Also, the upper level winds became unfavorable, and it ended up a very sheared system. However, it did cool the waters near the coast when Lili approached about 10 days later.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102002_Isidore.pdf

Another storm worth a look back is Edith (1971). I remember this one ... from 3rd grade.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3b/Edith_1971_track.png/800px-Edith_1971_track.png

[gatorcane]

System coming into Atlantic wide-view far bottom-right corner of this animated GIF. It has a decent area of convection already:

[tolakram]

Time to start tracking on Mimic. Looks like a future storm to me. Could this be the beginning of a horrific monster? hmmm http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

I'm doubting it's much of a monster, or at least that we have any idea yet. I do think either a strong wave or tropical storm will impact the islands around Wednesday and then we just don't know much about track or intensity after that.

The GFS has been the one to hold off in development this year while the Euro has wanted to blow things up. I noted near the end of the Hermine model thread that all models ended up with a pretty good handle on the storm by around 96 hours. viewtopic.php?f=84&t=118167&start=3820 The GFS had the landfall location at 132 hours, though ti did move it around a lot, and that movement was very similar to the Euro once it locked onto the system.

Keep all this in mind when passing quick judgement on the shorter term predictions, say 120 hours or less. So far the GFS has been much better this year in that range.

[toad strangler]

It's kinda late for Cape Verde systems although this won't be classified as one. There are criteria I do believe for cyclone genesis in a region within proximity of the CV islands themselves.

This wave has a marathon to go before reaching modeled genesis points. Let that alone be a calming vibe to any anxiety brought forth by the eye candy delivered thus far.

I would be much more intrigued than I am now if modeling was signaling home brew origin of the initial wave...

[Steve]

Me and Frank P {c) were posting live on Isadore - before, during and after. I'll never forget that sucker stating it was some of the highest storm surge he's seen on the beach in front of his Biloxi home since like Camile. Work couldn't make a decision and I ended up driving home and crossing the 17th Street Canal on Airline Highway which was flowing across. I ended up getting a 2am call from my neighbor who lived in a mother in law back house next door and was flooding and needed someone to dig a channel across her yard to drain it. 02 was a sick year for SELA. I remember raindrops from 7 systems. Never before.

00z NAM is running now. Obviously it/they don't go far enough out. But they will be important early next week to watch the conus evolution. That's nearly as important as the eventual system.

[Alyono]

18Z NAVGEM has come in quite a bit more intense than the 12Z

The trend is toward a more intense storm from all models not named ECMWF

[Blown Away]

IMO, the Euro didn't develop due to so much land interaction as it moved along SA coast... If other models follow the Euro track they would not show a bomb and I bet if Euro slides a bit N on the 00z it will develop... Model consistency showing a very intense hurricane like we have not seen in the Atlantic basin in what seems like years... If nothing comes from 39L this will be one of the biggest model busts of the past few seasons IMO... Little action in the W Caribbean has left those boiling SST's and combined with favorable upper level conditions in W Caribbean, per the modeling, is a recipe for a biggie!!

[floridasun78]

let not go our self let see what models show when this become invest maybe by sat will be invest

[robbielyn]

let not go our self let see what models show when this become invest maybe by sat will be invest

I don't think we are getting ahead of ourselves just contemplating all the possible scenarios which is entertaining to say the least.