Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

[ronjon]

Ya, the problem is however, no point on the gulfcoast can really manage to sustain itself against yet another Tropical Cyclone. Best case scenario if it has to make landfall somewhere in the Eastern Gulf would probably be the least populated both on the coast and inland...making the Florida Big Bend area the 'better' solution.

Even though a fair few people live there, at least it would miss the larger metros of Tampa, Sarasota/Bradenton, Fort Myers/Naples, Pensacola, and Panama City in Florida, Mobile in Alabama, and New Orleans, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge in New Orleans.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

yeah, kevin only one problem with that - its a large storm and I'm afraid if its CAT 3 or above that there would be a fairly significant storm surge event pretty much up the entire west coast. If you'll recall, Dennis, created a 10 ft surge in St Marks even though it was 150 miles west.

[johngaltfla]

Quite true, however the West Coast of Florida would be a better place to be affected the New Orleans. This Nation knows that there will be utter chaos if even a Category 2 Hurricane comes anywhere near New Orleans and the Mississippi Coast.

Nothing can, and should be compared, not even Andrew and Charley's impacts (or Ivan's for that matter), to the impact that Katrina left on the Gulfcoast. Not Dennis, not Rita, not Wilma, nothing can compare, and no other place on the gulfcoast deserves another impact less...than New Orleans and the NCGC.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Kevin, I respectfully disagree. A strong Cat 3 or higher impacting SW to NE into Tampa Bay would be a huge disaster. You would be looking at a death toll much higher than Katrina and damages just as if not more significant in dollars.

This is why alot of us "natives" have been screaming about over development of the coastal areas for 30 years now, but no one listens.

Unfortunately it's going to take several Katrinas to make everyone wake up and realize that there are some areas you should not try and turn into condo heaven.

[Tampa_God]

Quite true, however the West Coast of Florida would be a better place to be affected the New Orleans. This Nation knows that there will be utter chaos if even a Category 2 Hurricane comes anywhere near New Orleans and the Mississippi Coast.

Nothing can, and should be compared, not even Andrew and Charley's impacts (or Ivan's for that matter), to the impact that Katrina left on the Gulfcoast. Not Dennis, not Rita, not Wilma, nothing can compare, and no other place on the gulfcoast deserves another impact less...than New Orleans and the NCGC.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Kevin, I respectfully disagree. A strong Cat 3 or higher impacting SW to NE into Tampa Bay would be a huge disaster. You would be looking at a death toll much higher than Katrina and damages just as if not more significant in dollars.

This is why alot of us "natives" have been screaming about over development of the coastal areas for 30 years now, but no one listens.

Unfortunately it's going to take several Katrinas to make everyone wake up and realize that there are some areas you should not try and turn into condo heaven.

I kinda agree and kinda don't. Yes, Tampa is a bigger problem if a Cat 3 or 4 hit, but I belive more people will evaccuate since seeing what Katrina did to NOLA.

I'm really watching this one closely. Speed is slowing down, Ridge will probably be weakening, and a cold front. Threat sounds more between Gulf Shores, AL and West Coast of Florida. Also, if this gets pretty close, I'll be helping out my school setting up the shelter that we do.

I'm probably going to get supplies Monday or so.

[seaswing]

Quote: "This is why alot of us "natives" have been screaming about over development of the coastal areas for 30 years now, but no one listens.

Unfortunately it's going to take several Katrinas to make everyone wake up and realize that there are some areas you should not try and turn into condo heaven"
You nailed it right on the head....New Orleans lost it's wetlands, i.e., it's barrier islands long ago and now there is nothing that can be done to bring them back. When Camille hit, the barrier islands acted as a barrier. Think of what would have happened then if the barriers had not been there. I am a Florida 'native' as well and it amazes me that Florida real estate went through the roof after the 2004 season. I wondered then, "Could all these people buying here just want this land because it is so volitile?" truly amazes me

[johngaltfla]

Quite true, however the West Coast of Florida would be a better place to be affected the New Orleans. This Nation knows that there will be utter chaos if even a Category 2 Hurricane comes anywhere near New Orleans and the Mississippi Coast.

Nothing can, and should be compared, not even Andrew and Charley's impacts (or Ivan's for that matter), to the impact that Katrina left on the Gulfcoast. Not Dennis, not Rita, not Wilma, nothing can compare, and no other place on the gulfcoast deserves another impact less...than New Orleans and the NCGC.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Kevin, I respectfully disagree. A strong Cat 3 or higher impacting SW to NE into Tampa Bay would be a huge disaster. You would be looking at a death toll much higher than Katrina and damages just as if not more significant in dollars.

This is why alot of us "natives" have been screaming about over development of the coastal areas for 30 years now, but no one listens.

Unfortunately it's going to take several Katrinas to make everyone wake up and realize that there are some areas you should not try and turn into condo heaven.

I kinda agree and kinda don't. Yes, Tampa is a bigger problem if a Cat 3 or 4 hit, but I belive more people will evaccuate since seeing what Katrina did to NOLA.

I'm really watching this one closely. Speed is slowing down, Ridge will probably be weakening, and a cold front. Threat sounds more between Gulf Shores, AL and West Coast of Florida. Also, if this gets pretty close, I'll be helping out my school setting up the shelter that we do.

I'm probably going to get supplies Monday or so.

With all due respect, try to evacuate a population where about 60% are over the age of 60 and don't want to leave.....

[wxmann_91]

To answer the question, it is very difficult. It would take a very strong shortwave trough to do it. Attm... the models do not advertise one.

[seaswing]

Give Florida credit..... this state is the MOST prepared of them all. Although my motto has been in recent years that "All nuts roll to Florida" I do have to say that this state can teach others about hurricane preparedness and aftermath. We have shelters that can accomodate everyone, including the best shelters for people and their pets. Most of the people in LA did not evacuate because they were not going to leave their pets behind. It cost lives, many human as well as animal. Florida has shelters set up for people and pets. In fact people can evacuate and stay with their pet in a shelter. Those "60+" are the ones who consider their pet(s) as their children and after Charley, I truly believe that most would evac. now if they were asked or madated. Florida is tops when it comes to evacs.

[Rainband]

I agree we are the Model for them.

[NFLnut]

PS - Our president could take a few lessons of hurricane recovery, aftermath, and preparedness from his brother inmho lol.

Perhaps if the Governor of Louisiana had have taken lessons from the President's brother and done her job instead of assuming the fetal position, less lives would have been lost.

Then again, this isn't a political forum .. but YOU brought it up!

[Josephine96]

The jerk in the models to the east concerns me. Including the 1 {No Gaps?} that apparently still points dead on to a landfall on Cedar key or close by..

I also don't like hearing the GFS solution of it getting too close to call for Tampa.

I'm suddenly not thinking Mississippi anymore. I'm thinking the target on the Sunshine State's back is about to be hit again. Somewhere between the Big Bend and Tampa perhaps, I don't know..

[JonathanBelles]

i dont like the trend. the ridge is moving.

[bucman1]

what time is the next gfs run at?

[Josephine96]

Fact- even my local met said on the 11pm that he thinks the ridge is gonna back off..

All I have to say is.. If Florida gets this {North or Central} the rain will be very welcome, but not the possible 100 mph + winds..

[JonathanBelles]

12:30 i believe, tell me that i might be wrong.

[SWFLA_CANE]

12:30 i believe, tell me that i might be wrong.

It has started and is at 42 hours

[JonathanBelles]

Fact- even my local met said on the 11pm that he thinks the ridge is gonna back off..

All I have to say is.. If Florida gets this {North or Central} the rain will be very welcome, but not the possible 100 mph + winds..

we cannot get any rain, the ground was mushy when i went get the mail today

[Sanibel]

Special NHC Advisory. Hurricane Ernesto now headed towards peninsular Florida:


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A
12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING
ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER
TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

[Terry]

I got up to go fishing at 5 am and think I'll go to the grocery store before it gets nuts.

The models have certainly come more into agreement. Josh Linker on Bay News 9 (Linkerweather on here) did a good explanation of the weakenesses allowing Ernesto to move northward into the peninsula of FL vicinity. Thanks, Josh!

[caneman]

I got up to go fishing at 5 am and think I'll go to the grocery store before it gets nuts.

The models have certainly come more into agreement. Josh Linker on Bay News 9 (Linkerweather on here) did a good explanation of the weakenesses allowing Ernesto to move northward into the peninsula of FL vicinity. Thanks, Josh!

I didn't see him but I hold him in high reagrd. Good job bud!

[Nimbus]

This morning it begins to look less like Ivan and more like Charley. The NHC has put everyone on notice that it is hard to predict track when there is a trough/ridge situation.

Floridas friends may only be land interaction and shear just before landfall if the current forecast holds.