98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:05 pm

Floater

teal61 · #62 Postby **teal61** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:06 pm

Should be a more interesting TWO at 10:30 tonight.

Rainband · #63 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:08 pm

It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #64 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:08 pm

I'v have wondered at times when there is 2 or 3 strong LLC. Then why is there not there own cyclone. Each tropical cyclone needs a closed LLC with winds of 25 to 30 knots. If each one made the requirments for being a cyclone should they each get named or numbered?

#65 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:11 pm

Four centers.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

kjun · #66 Postby **kjun** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:12 pm

Looking at the last visibles before sunset over the GOM, one could think that this is a strong TS. The NHC may have to look at this one a little closer on the 10:30!!

#67 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:12 pm

Well, they are saying on the radio show right now it looks very impressive, esp. on the east/ne side for something not yet a cyclone. Zack just said some people may be "shocked" just by seeing this thing and not know it's not a named system.

swimaster20 · #68 Postby **swimaster20** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:13 pm

kjun wrote:Looking at the last visibles before sunset over the GOM, one could think that this is a strong TS. The NHC may have to look at this one a little closer on the 10:30!!

The thing is it could look wonderful on satellite, but if it doesn't have a LLC (as in this case), it isn't a tropical cyclone.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #69 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Its better to look at the texas obs to see if a LLC is developing. Cp ob shows southeastly winds as of a hour ago. If that turns then a system maybe forming over the water. On satellite it appears to be doing so but its likely to be mid level.

#70 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

please label the a map because i do not see 4 centers

#71 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Ok. I'm now officially confused. 98 was an invest, then it moved over land and wasn't an invest, and now it's an invest again. My question is that the wording from the NHC hasn't changed much at all. Yes it's a low pressure center. Yes it's over land. And no, the NHC doesn't think it's going to develop (despite what others on the board may or may not think.)

Is the NHC the center that officially declares invests, or is it the Navy since they only show up on their site and not on the NHC? I'm still confused as to the criteria that is used to declare an official invest. Not to mention if the NHC doesn't think it's going to develop, why cancel, then restate the invest. What changed during that time period from an official forecast point of view?

Stratosphere747 · #72 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Rainband wrote:It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??

It's evolving....

What I find interesting about tonight, is that the history over the last 3/4 days of this system has shown that the convection has considerably died down during this time of night.

Seems quite the opposite tonight.

#73 Postby **mvtrucking** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:15 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I will have to say on satellite one of the most impressive named storms I've seen. It has good outflow presentation, esp. to the east.

I agree. I think this system is extremely unique. Instead of one center it is one big pot of tropical gumbo. Looking at the 00:15 visible frame, there are four tropical systems budding. Has anyone seen anything quite like this before?

Could a LLC form in one of those areas further east?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #74 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:16 pm

Also I believe in the 1800s a system formed about where this is in become a hurricane. I will see if I can find it.

#75 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:16 pm

Rainband wrote:It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??

Not so sure, we have an explosion of thunderstorms very close to the coast and whenever we have thunderstorms on the increase in a consolidated area they tend to lower the pressure and "tighten" up any weak low there may be, but with it being so close to land the race is coming to an end , but it may be trying to sprint to the finish line so to speak.

Nimbus · #76 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:17 pm

Winds are still out of the SSE at Brownsville?

Stormavoider · #77 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:18 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I will have to say on satellite one of the most impressive named storms I've seen. It has good outflow presentation, esp. to the east.

I agree. I think this system is extremely unique. Instead of one center it is one big pot of tropical gumbo. Looking at the 00:15 visible frame, there are four tropical systems budding. Has anyone seen anything quite like this before?

Kennethb · #78 Postby **Kennethb** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:19 pm

Nimbus wrote:Winds are still out of the SSE at Brownsville?

I concur. Just a strong MLC. There are no N or W winds found along the Texas coast.

teal61 · #79 Postby **teal61** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:21 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Rainband wrote:It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??

Not so sure, we have an explosion of thunderstorms very close to the coast and whenever we have thunderstorms on the increase in a consolidated area they tend to lower the pressure and "tighten" up any weak low there may be, but with it being so close to land the race is coming to an end , but it may be trying to sprint to the finish line so to speak.

Not sure it's sprinting anywhere right now " that "MLC" or whatever it is has been near that same area most of the day.

Buoy 42020 just came in for 7:50pm and the pressure remained the same at 1009.6, will be interesting to see if it starts to rise now.

T-man · #80 Postby **T-man** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:21 pm

If it were ten years ago, the NWS would have forcast "a strong tropical wave with numerous thunderstorms will envelope the forecast area for most of this week, with rain totals reaching 5 -7 inches'

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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