98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Stormavoider
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#61 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:08 pm

Agreed. I'll go on record with you too. I think it may already have.
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#62 Postby T-man » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:08 pm

It looks completely different from 24hrs ago. What a difference a day makes. Can it hold together through the night? If it does, I say we have a depression by mid morning tomorrow. And TS by the afternoon, IMO
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#63 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:11 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
DrStorm wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like we might see TD #3 later tonight or tomorrow IMO.


Agreed. I'll go on record with you too. This will form!

(of course I have just issued the death sentence for this disturbance by going on record.)


Might even go straight to TS status with the first advisory, if there is one. Sustained TS force winds have already been reported over at the bouy SE of Texas. This system just needs a closed surface circulation to be classified as a TC.


And it might gain that closed low later tonight during its nocturnal maximum (or whatver you call it).
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#64 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:13 pm

Link


This looks like a true feederband at the begining stages....
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#65 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:16 pm

Or a big outflow boundry.
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#66 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:21 pm

Looks cool none the less!!
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#67 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:22 pm

Looks serious.
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#68 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:24 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Dry air shouldn't be a problem.
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#69 Postby teal61 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:26 pm

The more I look at it, the more it seems to be trying to make a go of it around 22.5/97.0 or so.
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#70 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:29 pm

Stormavoider wrote:Or a big outflow boundry.


I agree more like outflow boundry..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Whata slug a moisture..Serious soakage for someone..
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#71 Postby bbadon » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:34 pm

I Just got off the phone with one of our offshore platforms 98 miles south of Cameron, LA they are getting 50 - 55 mph winds right now. This is definitely getting intersting to say the least.
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#72 Postby sealbach » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:35 pm

I'll take this over the Houston heat any day...so long as it's not too bad.
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#73 Postby duris » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:37 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Yankeegirl wrote:I know you know that....but sometimes I wonder if any weather-related headlines/scrolls/etc. on TV ever gets read/proofread by someone who actually knows the weather.


No kidding. And the Time Picayune web site has a link saying "Gulf system could become third major storm of 2006." The link goes straight to the 5:30 TWO, which, of course, says nothing of the sort.
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#74 Postby Hohwxny » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:40 pm

bbadon wrote:I Just got off the phone with one of our offshore platforms 98 miles south of Cameron, LA they are getting 50 - 55 mph winds right now. This is definitely getting intersting to say the least.


Very interesting, indeed...

By chance, do you know what winds sustained would warrent an evacuation of the platform?
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#75 Postby bbadon » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:45 pm

well these kinds of systems are nightmares for offshore managers, helicopters have problems taking off from the platforms above 40knt winds. When a system forms on top of you like this there is a chance the guys get stuck on the platform.
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#76 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:47 pm

I would imagine those winds were not sustained, but rather gusts from the line that just blew through that area.
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#77 Postby bbadon » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:48 pm

yes they were gust, but still doesn't make you feel very good sitting in the middle of the Gulf
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#78 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:55 pm

What are the chances of this thing splitting into two different systems?
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#79 Postby sealbach » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:57 pm

my guess would be nil
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#80 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 24, 2006 6:05 pm

OK, this is something I spotted on radar. Loop is from 4:30 to 6:45 EDT. Note the circulation in about the middle of the image. The radar beam in this area is right at 10,000 feet out of Brownsville.


Image
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