GOM system is getting the look

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Starburst
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#61 Postby Starburst » Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:12 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Starburst wrote:If I am reading the buoy data map right on accuweather they are reporting a pretty substantial pressure drop in that area. Maybe someone that knows more about buoy data can verify this.



I'm not seeing anything but steady pressures in the Keys and in the eastern Gulf. What bouy were you looking at?



Cancel that might of helped if I was looking a current data not historical. Having a blone moment here :oops:
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#62 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:36 pm

Do I see a spin there?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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#63 Postby Grease Monkey » Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:37 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Do I see a spin there?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html


I was wondering the same thing.
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caneman

#64 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:19 pm

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. COVERING THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL IN THE NW ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN
GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AT THE
BASE OF THE NARROW TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 26N86W. BUOYS/QUIKSCAT
INDICATES SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF WINDS EVIDENT. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM
LAKE OCKEECHOBEE FLORIDA TO 25N86W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 86W ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 22N-26N. IN THE CENTRAL/WEST
GULF...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
25N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TRIGGERED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WEST THROUGH S
MEXICO. WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS UNSETTLED AS
TODAY IN THE E GULF. A COLD FRONT MAY DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS THE N
GULF ON SUN.
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#65 Postby canetracker » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:13 pm

If something does get going, the GOM could really provide some fuel. Check out the latest minimum central pressure and potential maximum winds: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html
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#66 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:16 pm

The convection party is still going on in the E.GOM and also look at the BOC too.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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caneman

#67 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:17 pm

Stormcenter wrote:The convection party is still going on in the E.GOM and also look at the BOC too.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


I believe its going to pop. Its been festering for afew days now.
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caneman

#68 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:19 pm

Amd having lived on the coast for a a long time. Seen many develop near shore and we are in a weird eerie storm pattern right now. Not typical summertime storms.
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caneman

#69 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:38 pm

This buoy is down .10 from 24 hours ago.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PCBF1
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caneman

#70 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:22 pm

Well NHC doesn't think so nor anything until Sunday .WOW. :?:

ABNT20 KNHC 220217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#71 Postby Grease Monkey » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:27 pm

caneman wrote:Well NHC doesn't think so nor anything until Sunday .WOW. :?:

ABNT20 KNHC 220217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


They say that often. We know how unpredictable the weather can be. It's impossible to make such a prediction and be accurate all the time. Just stick to the satelite images and when something does form they'll be quick to change their forecast.
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#72 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:09 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
caneman wrote:Well NHC doesn't think so nor anything until Sunday .WOW. :?:

ABNT20 KNHC 220217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


They say that often. We know how unpredictable the weather can be. It's impossible to make such a prediction and be accurate all the time. Just stick to the satelite images and when something does form they'll be quick to change their forecast.
exactly. I have seen them change this on a moments notice many times.
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Stormcenter
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#73 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:48 pm

When you have clustered convection still active in the late hours over the GOM waters then in my opinion something is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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#74 Postby beachbum_al » Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:57 pm

caneman wrote:Well NHC doesn't think so nor anything until Sunday .WOW. :?:

ABNT20 KNHC 220217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


This is good news because I am going to Orange Beach until Sunday and I do not want to have my weekend messed up.
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#75 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jul 21, 2006 11:12 pm

Stormcenter wrote:When you have clustered convection still active in the late hours over the GOM waters then in my opinion something is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
I agree. I will not stop watching this until I am fully sure it is going to be nothing.
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#76 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:50 am

The GOM system is gone.
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caneman

PRessures are low in the Gulf

#77 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:18 am

down to 29.92 this morning

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036
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caneman

#78 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:34 am

BOC at 29.89

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
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#79 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:01 am

The BOC disturbance may actually move more N as upper level conditions become a little more favorable over the upcoming days as wind shear decreases. A weak front will move S and stall over the NGOM. As the high moves E it could bring the disturbance more N than W
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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caneman

#80 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:24 am

KatDaddy wrote:The BOC disturbance may actually move more N as upper level conditions become a little more favorable over the upcoming days as wind shear decreases. A weak front will move S and stall over the NGOM. As the high moves E it could bring the disturbance more N than W


Well stated and this now looks like the aea to watch
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